Fantasy Top 5 – Miami Marlins

Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

At least 4 guys from the Marlins instill excitement in me...

Let me preface that I’m not excited that I landed this sh*t-show ;) but at least 4 guys from the Marlins instill excitement in me:

1) Giancarlo Stanton – maybe some team fishes the Marlins out of the water with an offer and all of a sudden his value sky rockets. If not, I think we something similar to 2012 with a BA closer to .270:

Rank

Name

Pos

G

PA

AB

AVG

HR

SB

R

RBI

Auction $

BB/K

HR/FB%

GB/FB

BABIP

xBABIP

OBP

OPS

SLG

24

Giancarlo Stanton

of

138

603

493

0.2686

37

3

78

80

20.21

0.66

0.268

1.01

0.3176

0.3072

0.4047

0.9614

0.5567

2) Jose Fernandez – I officially projected Fernandez yesterday in my early SP Rankings. I have him regressing a little bit next year with a surface ERA slightly above his expected ERA from this past season (3.08 xFIP & 3.22 SIERA). He was dominating, but I’m not sure his expected BABIP based on his ball in play breakdown nor his K% based on his SwStr% and contact rate completely matched up. Using 70 IP as the minimum and omitting relievers, check out this matrix:

(last year stats courtesy (and infinitely appreciated)of FanGraphs)

Name

Team

K%

BB%

K/BB

Contact%

HR/FB

GB/FB

LOB%

BABIP

ERA

xFIP

SIERA

Z-Ct%

F-Str%

SwStr%

Yu Darvish

Rangers

32.90%

9.50%

3.46

70.50%

14.40%

1.08

83.90%

0.264

2.83

2.84

2.83

83.2%

57.6%

12.6%

Matt Harvey

Mets

27.70%

4.50%

6.16

74.70%

4.70%

1.47

77.40%

0.28

2.27

2.63

2.71

84.5%

64.4%

12.5%

Anibal Sanchez

Tigers

27.10%

7.20%

3.74

73.00%

5.80%

1.39

78.20%

0.307

2.57

2.91

3.1

82.8%

61.5%

12.4%

Max Scherzer

Tigers

28.70%

6.70%

4.29

74.10%

7.60%

0.81

74.40%

0.259

2.9

3.16

2.98

80.6%

64.5%

12.0%

Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers

25.60%

5.70%

4.46

76.30%

5.80%

1.47

80.60%

0.251

1.83

2.88

3.06

84.7%

65.1%

11.4%

Madison Bumgarner

Giants

24.80%

7.70%

3.21

76.40%

8.20%

1.33

75.70%

0.251

2.77

3.32

3.41

85.1%

60.2%

11.1%

Chris Sale

White Sox

26.10%

5.30%

4.91

75.50%

12.50%

1.46

77.00%

0.289

3.07

2.95

2.96

82.9%

63.3%

10.8%

Felix Hernandez

Mariners

26.30%

5.60%

4.7

76.30%

10.00%

1.89

75.10%

0.314

3.04

2.66

2.84

89.2%

62.0%

10.7%

Stephen Strasburg

Nationals

26.10%

7.70%

3.41

76.20%

11.10%

1.66

73.20%

0.263

3

3.15

3.17

86.4%

59.8%

10.6%

A.J. Burnett

Pirates

26.10%

8.40%

3.12

75.60%

9.10%

2.33

71.80%

0.305

3.3

2.92

3.1

88.8%

62.4%

10.6%

Jose Fernandez

Marlins

27.50%

8.50%

3.22

77.60%

7.10%

1.36

79.40%

0.24

2.19

3.08

3.22

87.2%

61.5%

10.1%

Tony Cingrani

Reds

28.60%

10.20%

2.79

77.60%

12.60%

0.77

82.10%

0.241

2.92

3.49

3.39

83.9%

57.6%

9.9%

Cliff Lee

Phillies

25.30%

3.70%

6.94

80.90%

10.90%

1.33

76.70%

0.287

2.87

2.78

2.9

86.8%

68.5%

9.4%

Ubaldo Jimenez

Indians

25.00%

10.30%

2.43

79.10%

9.00%

1.21

76.50%

0.304

3.3

3.62

3.74

85.6%

58.4%

8.8%

Jose's Rank:

5th

12th

4th

4th

1st

11th

You can see that even though JF had the 5th best K rate in this list he had the 3rd worst overall contact rate and 4th worst SwStr rate (albeit elite company). Same goes for his BABIP, LOB and HR/FB or his "luck statistics." While there’s still a lot of skill/dominance associated, chances are all three regress slightly back to league average. This is not to say he won’t be dominating again – I’m just regressing him slightly as you can see in my early 2014 SP rankings/projections:

Player

GS

IP

W

ERA

WHIP

K

IFFB%

HR/FB%

K/BB

GB/FB

Ct%

LOB%

BABIP

SwStr%

Kershaw

32

229

14

2.59

1.02

227

0.110

0.065

4.32

1.40

0.778

0.687

0.282

0.111

Max Scherzer

32

213

17

3.20

1.09

235

0.1025

0.096

4.06

0.81

0.750

0.801

0.287

0.119

Yu Darvish

32

210

15

3.39

1.17

244

0.100

0.1275

3.14

1.19

0.727

0.840

0.296

0.122

Adam Waino

32

224

17

3.30

1.17

196

0.078

0.09

4.25

1.75

0.818

0.795

0.315

0.090

Cliff Lee

31

222

14

3.35

1.08

211

0.091

0.1175

6.15

1.26

0.799

0.820

0.297

0.088

Chris Sale

30

214

13

3.16

1.13

227

0.102

0.12

4.77

1.51

0.769

0.799

0.309

0.109

Felix Hernandez

30

203

13

3.28

1.14

196

0.09

0.098

4.00

1.78

0.793

0.791

0.300

0.106

Bumgarner

30

195

13

3.13

1.13

188

0.110

0.08

3.34

1.35

0.786

0.771

0.291

0.108

Strasburg

27

167

13

3.16

1.12

176

0.090

0.11

3.53

1.69

0.761

0.781

0.293

0.108

Verlander

32

203

16

3.53

1.22

194

0.135

0.084

3.01

0.99

0.797

0.843

0.295

0.102

David Price

30

206

14

3.40

1.15

179

0.091

0.092

3.63

1.32

0.817

0.814

0.297

0.082

Alex Cobb

31

202

13

3.38

1.18

186

0.082

0.138

2.99

2.43

0.799

0.818

0.294

0.088

Cole Hamels

31

208

12

3.39

1.17

190

0.115

0.099

3.90

1.14

0.812

0.837

0.293

0.119

Anibal Sanchez

29

182

14

3.44

1.23

182

0.105

0.088

3.17

1.36

0.792

0.828

0.298

0.109

Mike Minor

31

194

15

3.71

1.18

170

0.103

0.09

3.22

0.83

0.816

0.862

0.290

0.095

Michael Wacha

30

197

12

3.29

1.17

174

0.011

0.085

3.00

1.27

0.810

0.814

0.293

0.109

Gio Gonzalez

32

196

15

3.65

1.26

193

0.090

0.097

2.59

1.36

0.789

0.851

0.291

0.094

Zack Greinke

29

183

14

3.39

1.20

161

0.090

0.09

3.41

1.52

0.815

0.814

0.311

0.095

Jose Fernandez

28

175

11

3.33

1.19

188

0.080

0.08

2.99

1.26

0.752

0.802

0.311

0.100

Matt Latos

30

193

15

3.53

1.24

171

0.108

0.085

3.10

1.32

0.818

0.838

0.305

0.103

Tony Cingrani

25

149

13

3.53

1.20

164

0.012

0.1

2.78

0.88

0.739

0.855

0.297

0.099

Gerrit Cole

30

190

13

3.47

1.24

167

0.070

0.0825

2.99

1.81

0.817

0.817

0.310

0.092

3) Christian Yelich: You can check out my full positional tiers over at Rotobanter, but here’s where I have Christian Yelich – currently the 39th overall OF and ahead of other speedy assets and young impactful outfielders such as Avisail Garcia & Oswaldo Arcia:

Outfielders

5x5

Name

G

PA

AB

OBP

SLG

OPS

AVG

HR

SB

R

RBI

$

Tiers

39

Christian Yelich

140

630

563

0.339

0.392

0.731

0.269

12

21

78

46

9.61

Tier 7

40

Gerardo Parra

142

497

442

0.346

0.396

0.742

0.277

7

10

80

61

8.41

41

Leonys Martin

142

493

442

0.323

0.402

0.725

0.265

9

28

68

50

8.29

42

Eric Young Jr.

145

593

534

0.319

0.346

0.665

0.256

3

42

77

37

8.01

43

Brett Gardner

125

550

478

0.347

0.373

0.721

0.262

7

28

77

45

7.91

44

Ben Revere

120

546

505

0.334

0.338

0.672

0.292

0

36

66

29

7.58

45

Curtis Granderson

136

544

469

0.337

0.425

0.762

0.238

21

11

69

72

7.54

46

Jon Jay

150

600

524

0.359

0.372

0.731

0.280

6

8

74

65

7.38

47

Coco Crisp

125

536

474

0.333

0.402

0.735

0.261

12

18

75

49

7.23

48

Junior Lake

140

573

529

0.305

0.399

0.704

0.255

14

23

68

53

7.15

49

Avisail Garcia

120

492

464

0.308

0.426

0.735

0.275

14

9

62

63

6.82

50

Norichika Aoki

144

619

551

0.354

0.367

0.720

0.285

6

18

74

33

6.16

51

Colby Rasmus

130

501

444

0.323

0.472

0.794

0.247

25

1

62

72

5.81

52

George Springer

113

470

417

0.317

0.404

0.721

0.240

16

24

61

56

5.71

53

Oswaldo Arcia

127

527

477

0.327

0.467

0.795

0.262

23

2

56

70

5.68

54

Alejandro De Aza

130

576

520

0.323

0.376

0.699

0.263

10

17

72

49

5.32

He’ll stick in the majors and I’m projecting his expected BABIP to be an extremely robust .380+ with an actual 2014 BABIP that will approach .340. There’s a good chance this doesn’t happen as soon as 2014, but I think his contact type, swing, approach and speed can support this expectation. Assuming he gets on and driven in enough by Stanton and Logan Morrison, combined with 10+HR and 20+SB, you have your 3rd most valuable Marlin.

4) By default, Steve Cishek comes in at #4, but he’s a comfortable 4th and probably #3. He has what you want from a closer: K/BB ratio beyond 3.00 (3.36), GB/FB ratio approaching 2.00 (1.81) and a lovely (consistent) HR/FB ratio below 6% (2.6, 5.8 and 5.8 the last 3 years). With a consistent 9.5+ K/9, combined with these other factors, he’s approaching elite closer status. I love grabbing him as my first or 2nd closer much later in drafts. Marlins or not, he should approach 30 saves.

5) Nobody! I guess I’d recommend Ruggiano as a bench 15HR/15SB guy or a healthy Logan Morrison (especially in an OBP league). I’m not comfortably recommending Eovaldi, Alvarez, Turner, Heaney or even Nicolino at this time for impactful 2014 pitching assets.

Dan Schwartz owns Rotobanter.com – Fantasy Baseball Site dedicated to visitor requests and live discussion. You can follow him on Twitter @Rotobanter. You can find his approach to player projections on Rotobanter’s About Us or Positional Tiers page.

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