Fake Teams 2013 Consensus Starting Pitcher Rankings: Top 25

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

The Fake Teams 2013 Consensus Rankings continue today with our Top 25 Starting Pitchers for 2013, headed by Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw.

Bret opened Starting Pitcher Week with the State of the Position earlier this morning, and now it is time for our 2013 Consensus Starting Pitcher Rankings. We went 100 deep in our starting pitcher rankings, so I will break the rankings and player profiles into three parts, with Part 1 published today where I provide player profiles for our Top 25 Starting Pitchers for 2013, and follow that up with rankings and player profiles for pitchers ranked 26 - 50 on Wednesday morning, and 51 - 100 on Friday Morning.

Now let's take a look at the Fake Teams Consensus Top 25 Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2013:

Rank

Player

Ray

Bret

Jason

Craig

Score

1

Justin Verlander

1

1

1

1

416

2

Clayton Kershaw

2

2

2

3

411

3

Stephen Strasburg

3

3

5

2

407

4

David Price

5

4

4

4

403

5

Felix Hernandez

6

5

3

6

400

6

Cole Hamels

4

6

8

8

394

7

Cliff Lee

10

11

7

10

382

8

R.A. Dickey

13

7

9

9

382

9

Zack Greinke

7

8

12

11

382

10

Matt Cain

12

17

6

5

380

11

Gio Gonzalez

11

15

11

7

376

12

Jered Weaver

8

10

17

16

369

13

CC Sabathia

17

12

13

12

366

14

Yu Darvish

9

13

18

15

365

15

Roy Halladay

20

14

20

13

353

16

Madison Bumgarner

16

22

21

14

347

17

Adam Wainwright

15

9

15

35

346

18

Johnny Cueto

19

23

16

17

345

19

Chris Sale

14

16

23

26

341

20

James Shields

26

21

14

25

334

21

Mat Latos

18

24

25

19

334

22

Max Scherzer

25

18

19

27

331

23

Kris Medlen

21

26

10

37

326

24

Jordan Zimmermann

33

20

28

21

318

25

Yovani Gallardo

38

25

22

23

312

Below are player profiles for each of our Top 25 Starting Pitchers today, and I will follow this with profiles for pitchers ranked 26 - 40 on Wednesday morning, and then profiles for a few starters I think could be undervalued on draft day on Friday or Monday. Please note, projecting wins is not an easy thing, so take those projections with a grain of salt. There are too many factors that can influence a starters win totals from infield defense, bullpen performance, run support, among others.

1. Justin Verlander, DET

Verlander did not repeat as American League Cy Young in 2012, but he was still very dominant. He went 17-8 with a 2.64 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, and a 1.06 WHIP in 238.1 innings pitched. What makes him so valuable, is that he can provide fantasy owners with a sub 3.00 ERA, a sub 1.10 WHIP and high strikeout totals in over 200 innings pitched each year. He has thrown more than 200 innings in 6 straight seasons and has won 124 games in his 7 seasons in the majors, averaging just under 18 wins per season. He has also struck out 219 or more batters in each of the last four seasons. He gave up 2 runs or less in 21 of his 33 starts last season.

2013 Projection: I see Verlander winning 17 games with a 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 230 strikeouts. He is a late first round pick for those who want to grab an ace with their first pick in the draft. I don't profess to be one to draft that way, but some do. Otherwise he is a lock to be a second round pick in mixed leagues, and a possible first round pick in AL only leagues.

2. Clayton Kershaw, LAD

One can make the case that Kershaw is the No. 1 starting pitcher in baseball, as he has already won 61 games and won't turn 25 till two days after St. Patrick's Day. Last season he won less games than in his Cy Young Award winning season in 2011, but was still one of the best fantasy starters. He went 14-9 with a 2.53 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.25 xFIP and a 1.02 WHIP in 227.2 innings pitched last season. Once a young starter with control problems, Kershaw has reduced his walk rates from 4.79 in 2009 to 2.49 in 2012, while striking out more than 9 batters per nine innings. Since 2009, he has improved his percentage of throwing first pitch strikes from 55.6% to 64.5%, which means he gets ahead of hitters quite a lot. He gave up 2 runs or less in 23 of his 33 starts last season.

2013 Projection: I see Kershaw winning 17 games with a 2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 235 strikeouts in 2013, and like Verlander, could be a first round pick in mixed and NL only leagues. I see him as a second round pick in mixed leagues though.

3. Stephen Strasburg, WAS

Strasburg could easily be the top fantasy starter in 2013, pitching for one of the better teams in baseball. The Nationals decision to limit Strasburg's innings a year after his Tommy John surgery was a much talked about story in 2012, but the Nats will take the kid gloves off of him in 2013. Strasburg made 28 starts in 2012, going 15-6 with a 3.16 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.81 xFIP and a 1.15 WHIP. He dominated hitters in 2012, striking out just over 11 batters per nine innings, with a walk rate of 2.71 per nine. He gave up 2 runs or less in 19 of his 28 starts last season, but his monthly performance was mixed:

ERA per month:

April: 1.13

May: 4.50

June: 3.09

July: 4.13

August: 2.79

September 5.00 (just 9 innings pitched)

Kershaw's monthly ERA was never higher than 3.51 in any month in 2012, but he wasn't coming off Tommy John surgery either.

2013 Projection: I see Strasburg winning 17 games with a sub 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 240 strikeouts in 2013. He is a third round pick in mixed leagues and a second round pick in NL only leagues.

4. David Price, TB

The 2012 American League Cy Young award winner put up the best season of his four year career last season, winning 20 games with a 2.56 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 3.12 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP in 211 innings pitched. His strikeout rate (8.74 vs 8.75) and walk rate (2.52 vs 2.53) were virtually the same as in 2011, yet he won 8 more games and lowered his ERA by almost a full run. How did he lower his ERA by almost a run? Well, he increased his ground ball rate from 44.3% to 53.1% and increased his strand rate from 73.3% to an extremely high 81.1%, which will be difficult to repeat. The trend in his ground ball rate is up, as it has moved from 41.5% 2009 to 53.1% last year, increasing every year since 2009. If he can maintain his ground ball rate and K/BB ratio, he could put up another season like 2012.

2013 Projection: I see Price winning 16 games with a 3.10 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in 2013, and he should be drafted in the 3rd-4th round in mixed leagues and 2nd round in AL only leagues.

5. Felix Hernandez, SEA

King Felix had another excellent season on the mound in 2012, going 13-9 with a 3.06 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 3.20 xFIP, and 1.14 WHIP in 232 innings pitched, his fourth straight season over 230 innings pitched. Looking at his monthly stats, one month stands out among the others: September. In September, hitters hit .344-.390-.471 off of him, as he gave up 28 runs, 26 earned in 35.1 innings pitched. Certainly not what one would expect from Hernandez, and spurred some talk that he might be feeling the effects of all the innings he has thrown thus far in his seven year career. I think he will be fine and his September performance may affect his draft stock in 2013, so he could provide owners with solid value.

2013 Projection: I see Hernandez winning 14 games with the improved Mariners lineup in 2013, with a 3.25 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 220 strikeouts. He should be drafted in the 5th-6th rounds in mixed leagues and 2nd-3rd rounds in AL only leagues.

6. Cole Hamels, PHI

Hamels signed a new 6 year deal with the Phillies last season, and is the best pitcher on the Phillies staff and capable of another Cy Young award in any given year. Last season, Hamels went 17-6 with a 3.05 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, and 1.12 WHIP in 215.1 innings pitched, his fourth year of 200+ innings in the last five seasons. His strikeout rate jumped from 8.08 to 9.03, his walk rate increased from 1.87 to 2.17, so he was more dominant in 2012, but his ground ball rate dropped from 52.3% to 43.4%. Looking at his ground ball rate trend, it appears his 2011 GB% was a one year fluke, so owners should expect his GB rate to stay in the low to mid 40% range.

2013 Projection: I see the Phillies improving a bit in 2013, and think Hamels will win 17-18 games with a low 3.00 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with 200 strikeouts. He should be drafted in the 5th round in mixed leagues and 2nd round in NL only leagues.

7. Cliff Lee, PHI

Lee's win totals cratered in 2012, as he won just six of his 30 starts, but still pitched on an elite level. He went 6-9 with a 3.16 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 3.06 xFIP and a 1.11 WHIP in 211 innings of work. His strikeout rate dropped slightly from 9.21 strikeouts per nine innings, to 8.83 K/9. Lee was already a terrific control pitcher, but last year, he became an elite control pitcher, as his walks per nine dropped from 1.62 to 1.19. So why the drop in his win total? Well, his strand rate, or LOB% over at FanGraphs, dropped from 81.4% to 78.6%, his ground ball rate dropped slightly, from 46.3% to 45.0%, and his HR/FB% jumped from 9.0% to just under 12.0%. Plus, wins are flukey anyway. There are so many ways for a pitcher to lose a game that are out of his control.

2013 Projection: I see Lee winning 14 games next season, with a low 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and around 200 strikeouts. He should be drafted around the 6th round in mixed leagues and 3rd round in NL only leagues.

8. R.A. Dickey, TOR

The reigning National League Cy Young award winner was traded this offseason to the Toronto Blue Jays, and I wonder if the trade from the NL to the AL will have a negative impact on his performance in 2013. We completed our rankings before he was traded to the Blue Jays, so there is a chance he would have fallen a few spots as a result. Dickey won 20 games last season with a 2.73 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.27 xFIP, and a 1.05 WHIP in a career high 233.2 innings pitched. Last year was not the first time he has pitched well, as he has pitched well in each of the last three seasons, where his ERA has not been higher than 3.28, and his WHIP has been 1.23 or under in all three seasons.

2013 Projection: I see Dickey winning 15 games with a 3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 190 strikeouts. He should be drafted in the 7th-9th rounds in mixed leagues, and around the 4th round in AL only leagues.

9. Zack Greinke, LAD

Greinke signed a 6 year, $147 million deal with the Dodgers a few weeks ago, so he moves from one pitchers park to another, all within the same city. Greinke went 15-5 with a 3.48 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.22 xFIP and 1.20 WHIP in 212.10 innings. Greinke has thrown over 200 innings in four of the last five seasons, and it would have been five in a row had he not injured himself playing a pickup basketball game during the offseason of 2011. Greinke's strikeout rate dropped by two strikeouts per nine innings last season, as he pitched to more contact, threw less first pitch strikes and induced less swinging strikes than in 2011. His ground ball rate has increased in each of the last three seasons, from 40% in 2009 to 49% last season, and his HR/FB% dropped as well, both good signs heading into the 2013 season.

2013 Projection: I see Greinke winning 15-16 games with a sub 3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 220 strikeouts in 2013. He should be drafted in the 7th round of mixed leagues and 2nd-3rd round in NL only leagues.

10. Matt Cain, SFG

Cain had his best season as a major leaguer in 2012, going 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, and a 1.04 WHIP in 219.1 innings pitched, his sixth straight season of 200+ innings pitched. His strikeout rate jumped from 7.27 to 7.92, while his walk rate dropped from 2.56 to 2.09. His walk rate has been in a steady decline since 2006, so he has grown into one of the best pitchers in the game. Advanced pitching statistics reflect an average major league starter,m but Cain has put up ERAs of 3.14 or lower in each of the last four seasons, mainly due to his ability to keep the ball in the ball park and strand runners at a very high rate.

2013 Projection: I see Cain winning 15 games with a 3.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 180 strikeouts in 2013. He should be drafted around the 7th-8th round in mixed league drafts and 3rd round in NL only leagues.

11. Gio Gonzalez, WAS

Gio is another starter who had his best year ever in 2012, winning 21 games with a 2.89 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, and 1.13 WHIP in 199.1 innings pitched, all career high highs with the exception of innings pitched. As many expected, his strikeouts per nine innings jumped from 8.78 to 9.35 last season, and he improved his control as well, as his walk rate dropped from 4.05 to 3.43. He not only strikes out a ton of batters, but he also limits the long ball (5.8% HR/FB) and induces ground balls at an excellent 48.2% clip. If he can continue to improve his control, he could enter the "Ace" talk in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Gonzalez winning 16 games with a 3.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in 2013. He should drafted around the 8th round in mixed leagues and in the 3rd-4th round in NL only leagues.

12. Jered Weaver, LAA

Weaver isn't the dominant ace like Cole Hamels or Felix Hernandez, but he has a propensity for limiting baserunners and stranding runners, and some pitchers just have that skill. Weaver went 20-5 with a 2.81 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 4.18 xFIP, and 1.02 WHIP in 188.1 innings pitched last season. His 6.77 strikeout rate was his lowest since 2007, but his walk rate has stayed in the same range over the last three seasons. Like I said before, he knows how to strand runners, and his BABIP is trending in the right direction:

Year: strand rate/BABIP

2009: 76.2% LOB / .278 BABIP

2010: 75.7% LOB / .276 BABIP

2011: 82.6% LOB / .250 BABIP

2012: 79.2% LOB / .241 BABIP

2013 Projection: I see Weaver winning 17 games with a 2.90 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 150 strikeouts in 2013 and he should be drafted in the 7th-8th round in mixed leagues, and 3rd round in AL only leagues.

13. C.C. Sabathia, NYY

Sabathia is just a freakin horse. He has thrown 200+ innings in six straight seasons now. He went 15-6 in his 28 starts, with a 3.38 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.20 xFIP, and a 1.14 WHIP in exactly 200 innings pitched. His strikeout rate increased from 8.72 per nine innings to 8.87 per nine, while his walk rate dropped under 2.00 for the first time since 2007. The one concern I have is the toll all the 200+ inning seasons is having on his left arm and elbow. He landed on the DL for the first time in awhile last season, and he isn't getting any younger.

2013 Projection: I see Sabathia being Sabathia, winning 15 games with a low 3.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in 2013. He should be drafted in the 8th round in mixed leagues and 4th round in AL only leagues.

14. Yu Darvish, TEX

Darvish struggled with his control for most of the season, but if his last 7 starts are any indication, it appears he may have solved his control issues. Over his last seven starts, he went 7 or more innings in all but one of those starts (50.2 innings in total), striking out 59, walking 10, giving up just 12 earned runs on just 29 hits. All told, he went 4-1 in those starts, with a 2.1 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and a 5.9 K/BB rate. In his chat last Thursday, ESPN's Keith Law said that Darvish could lead the league in fWAR in 2013. One thing fantasy owners should remember on draft day: the Astros are joining the AL West in 2013. Bump your AL West starters as a result. And Darvish is one of the best.

2013 Projection: I see Darvish winning 19 games with a 3.40 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 235 strikeouts. Yeah, I am high on him. He will more than likely be drafted around the 10th round in mixed leagues and 6th round in AL only leagues.

15. Roy Halladay, PHI

Halladay made less than 30 starts for the first time since 2005, going 11-9 with an un-Halladay-lke 4.48 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, and a 1.22 WHIP. He missed about 7 weeks due to a strained right shoulder. He was clearly not the same pitcher last season, and here is a quick look at his monthly ERAs:

April: 1.95

May: 6.11

July: 5.82

August: 3.32

September: 6.84

Jason and I were the low guys on Halladay, and I admit, I worry that he could underperform again in 2013. HIs strikeout rate dropped from 8.47 to 7.60 per nine innings, his ground ball rate dropped from 50.9% to 44.7%, and his HR/9 jumped from 0/39 to 1.04, so he was certainly less effective in 2012.

2013 Projection: I see Halladay winning 14 games with a 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 165 strikeouts in 2013. He should be drafted in the 12th round of mixed league drafts and 6th-7th round in NL only league drafts.

16. Madison Bumgarner, SFG

MadBum had his best season of his career in 2012, winning 16 games with a 3.37 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, and a career low WHIP of 1.11. He struggled to end the season, as his ERA jumped from 2.97 in August to 5.47 in September. You should hope that other owners in your league focus on his poor September and he falls a bit in your drafts this season, as he is one of the better young starters in baseball. His strikeout and walk rates stays relatively the same last season, while his ground ball rate increased slightly, and his 11.7% HR/FB rate should regress back toward his 7% HR/FB rate in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Bumgarner winning 15-16 games, with a 3.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in 2013. He should be drafted around the 9th-10th round in mixed leagues and 3rd-4th round in NL only leagues.

17. Adam Wainwright, STL

Wainwright returned from Tommy John surgery in 2012, starting 32 games, and going 14-13 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. While his surface stats indicate he was not the same pitcher in 2012 as we have grown to expect pre-Tommy John, his strikeout, walk and ground ball rates indicate he was:

Pre-Tommy John surgery

2009: 8.19 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 50.7 GB%

2010: 8.32 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 51.6 GB%

Post Tommy John Surgery

2012: 8.34 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 50.8 GB%

In addition, after stranding anywhere from 76-80% of base runners from 2008-2010, he stranded just 68% of base runners last season, so his his strand rate should normalize in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Wainwright winning 15-16 games with a 3.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 200 strikeouts. He should be drafted around the 11th-12 rounds in mixed leagues, and 4th-5th rounds in NL only leagues.

18. Johnny Cueto, CIN

I never thought I would see Cueto land in our top 25 Starters for 2013, but here he is, and he has confounded me. One look at his strikeout rate (7.05/9) and I wonder how he does it. But he does know how to do a few things well, and that is keep the ball on the ground and strand base runners. His strand rate screams regression, but it just keeps trending up and up:

2008: 72.5%

2009: 73.6%

2010: 76.1%

2011: 76.4%

20102: 78.8%

And with the uptrend in strand rate, his win totals have followed, and his ERA has trended in the opposite direction, from 4.81 in 2008 to 2.78 in 2012. You would never know he pitched the majority of his games at a hitters park, which makes his performance even more amazing.

2013 Projection: I see Cueto winning 16 games with a 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 180 strikeouts in 2013, and he should be drafted around the 12th round in mixed leagues and 5th round in NL only leagues.

19. Chris Sale, CHW

Sale burst upon the fantasy baseball landscape in 2012 with his dominating performance in his first try at starting. He was a fixture on the White Sox bullpen in 2011, but the team decided to make him a starter in early April and h never looked back. Sale made 29 starts, going 17-8 with a 3.05 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.24 xFIP and a WHIP of 1.14. In 192 innings pitched he struck out exactly one in every inning, while walking 51. His 3.76 K/BB ratio as a starter last season was better than his 2.93 K/BB as a reliever in 2011, as he exhibited more control as a starter, walking just 2.39 batters per nine innings vs 3.42 as a reliever. What makes his performance a bit surprising is that he made half of his starts in U.S. Cellular Field, a hitters park.

His performance actually makes me more confident that Aroldis Chapman can make the swtich from closer to starter in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Sale winning 15 games with a 3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in 2013, and he should be drafted around the 10th-11th round in mixed leagues and 5th-6th rounds in AL only leagues.

20. James Shields, TB

Shields was traded to the Royals in the deal that sent top hitting prospect Wil Myers to the Rays, so he is the top of the rotation starter the Royals have been missing over the last few seasons. Shields is a horse, as he has thrown 200 or more innings in each of the last six seasons, making at least 31 starts every year since 2007. He strikes out more than 8 batters per nine innings, while keeping his walk rates in the low 2.00s. He is prone to the long ball, as his HR/FB rate has been below 11.0% just once in his career. He also induced a good amount of ground balls (52% in 2012), and the Royals boast a solid defensive infield, so his overall stat line could improve in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Shields winning 14 games with a 3.35 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 220 strikeouts in 2013. He should be drafted around the 11th-12th round in mixed leagues and in the 6th round in AL only leagues.

21. Mat Latos, CIN

Latos is yet another starter in our Top 25 who excelled even though he pitches in a hitters park. Some felt that he would struggle with the long ball moving from Petco Park to Great American Ball Park in 2012, but Latos pitched just as well as he did in San Diego. Latos made a career high 33 starts in 2012, going 14-4 with a 3.48 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 3.79 xFIP and a 1.16 WHIP in a career high 209.1 innings pitched. He did give up 9 more home runs (25) than he did in 2011, but he limited the damage, keeping the ball on the ground at a 45.6% rate, also a career high. He benefitted from the solid infield defenders he had in Cincinnati, and I see him pitching well again in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Latos winning 16 games with a 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in 2013. He should be drafted around the 13th round in mixed leagues and 5th round in NL only leagues.

22. Max Scherzer, DET

If you like strikeout pitchers, there is none better than Scherzer, as his 11.08 strikeouts per nine led the majors last season. His K/9 exploded from 8.03 to 11.08 in 2012, while his walks per nine increased slightly, from 2.58 to 2.88. Scherzer made 32 starts last season, winning a career high 16 games, with a 3.74 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.23 xFIP and 1.27 WHIP in 187.2 innings pitched. I don't see him striking out over 11 batters per nine again, but he should be in the 10K/9 range.

2013 Projection: I see Scherzer showing more improvement in 2013, winning 16 games with a 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 240 strikeouts in 2013. He should be drafted around the 12th round in mixed leagues and 7th round in AL only leagues.

23. Kris Medlen, ATL

Medlen started the season in the Braves bullpen and ended the season as one of the best pitchers in the game. In 12 second half starts, he won 9 games with a 0.97 ERA, 0.801 WHIP and an 84-10 strikeout to walk ratio in 83.2 innings of work. He limited batters to a .191-.218-.265 triple slash line as a starter, giving up just 5 home runs. He may remind fantasy owners of Greg Maddux, but I want to see how he performs as a starter for a full season before I buy into the comparison.

2013 Projection: If he pitches like he did in the second half, his #23 ranking will look silly, but I don't see him duplicating that effort over a full season. I see him winning 15 games with a 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 170 strikeouts in 2013. He should be drafted in the 13th round in mixed leagues and 7th round in NL only leagues.

24. Jordan Zimmermann, WAS

Zimmermann doesn't get the press that teammates Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez get, but he is one of the better #3 starters in baseball. Zimm made 32 starts last season, winning 12 games, with a 2.94 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, and a 1.17 WHIP in 195.2 innings. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters like Strasburg and Gonzalez, but what he does do well is limit the free pass and long ball, and his strand rate is trending up, which bodes well for him in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Zimmermann winning 14 games with a 3.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 155 strikeouts in 2013. He should be drafted in the 14th round in mixed leagues and 6th round in NL only leagues.

25. Yovani Gallardo, MIL

Gallardo made 33 starts for the second consecutive season in 2012, winning 16 games with a 3.66 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, and a 1.30 WHIP in 204 innings of work. His strikeout rate stay relatively the same at 9 strikeouts per nine innings, but his walk rate jumped from 2.56/9 to 3.57/9, and his HR/FB rate jumped from 12.7% to 14.9%. For some reason, Miller Park was one of the best parks for home run hitters last season, increasing home runs for left-handed hitters by 42% and right-hand hitters by 30%, so the long ball will be a concern for Gallardo in 2013 if that trend continues.

2013 Projection: I see Gallardo winning 14 games with a 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in 2013. He should be drafted in the 14th round in mixed leagues and 7th round in NL only leagues.

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