Fake Teams 2013 Consensus Starting Pitcher Rankings: 51 - 100

Dilip Vishwanat

I profile some of the starting pitchers in the bottom half of our 2013 Consensus Starting Pitcher Rankings., for pitchers ranked 51 - 100.

I published player profiles for our Top 25 starters on Monday, and followed that up with player profiles for starters ranked 26- 50 on Wednesday. Today, I provide you with our Starting Pitcher Rankings for pitchers ranked 51 - 100., along with player profiles for a few that could fly under the radar on draft day.

Below is our rankings for starters ranked 51 - 100:

Rank

Player

Ray

Bret

Jason

Craig

Score

51

Jeremy Hellickson

53

49

52

55

211

52

Tim Hudson

48

48

57

61

206

53

Kyle Lohse

39

67

72

41

201

54

Homer Bailey

58

38

45

80

199

55

Phil Hughes

57

52

36

83

192

56

Matt Harrison

61

40

39

92

188

57

Marco Estrada

65

61

63

44

187

58

Edwin Jackson

68

50

68

49

185

59

Josh Beckett

51

68

58

65

178

60

Trevor Cahill

81

71

37

56

175

61

Clay Buchholz

78

43

81

43

175

62

Wade Miley

63

60

53

74

170

63

Brandon McCarthy

54

66

79

59

162

64

Jason Hammel

71

73

77

58

141

65

Tommy Hanson

70

87

46

79

138

66

Casey Kelly

62

79

91

57

131

67

Derek Holland

NR

53

51

86

125

68

Shaun Marcum

72

74

83

66

125

69

Wandy Rodriguez

64

76

84

72

124

70

Edinson Volquez

75

56

70

96

123

71

Mark Buehrle

67

90

80

76

107

72

Shelby Miller

55

91

NR

63

106

73

Andy Pettitte

56

58

96

NR

105

74

Colby Lewis

34

NR

76

NR

100

75

James McDonald

66

85

86

84

99

76

Johan Santana

NR

84

60

73

98

77

Chris Capuano

73

70

NR

75

97

78

Tyler Skaggs

92

78

75

81

94

79

Chad Billingsley

60

65

NR

NR

85

80

Wily Peralta

89

80

NR

62

84

81

Michael Fiers

69

94

69

NR

83

82

Cory Luebke

77

NR

98

60

80

83

Trevor Bauer

96

83

73

89

79

84

Dan Straily

86

88

92

77

77

85

Jason Vargas

NR

69

67

NR

74

86

A.J. Griffin

79

72

90

NR

74

87

Wei-Yin Chen

83

NR

88

71

73

88

Alex Cobb

82

59

NR

NR

69

89

Ricky Nolasco

95

NR

62

93

65

90

Chris Tillman

NR

77

NR

68

65

91

Tommy Milone

80

NR

71

NR

59

92

Ervin Santana

NR

82

NR

69

59

93

Francisco Liriano

NR

NR

66

87

57

94

Scott Baker

NR

75

NR

78

57

95

Bud Norris

NR

89

65

NR

56

96

Paul Maholm

NR

NR

74

82

54

97

Hisashi Iwakuma

NR

NR

93

70

47

98

Clayton Richard

NR

97

NR

67

46

99

Ricky Romero

NR

63

NR

NR

42

100

Felix Doubront

NR

NR

64

NR

41

Here are a few starters who I think could outperform their draft round in 2013:

Trevor Bauer, CLE

Bauer was traded to the Indians this offseason, and I can just picture his face when he heard the news. Bauer will be moving form one of the better hitters parks in baseball, Chase Field, which improved run scoring by 17% and home runs by 19% in 2012, to Progressive Field, which depressed run scoring by 10% and home runs by 7.5% in 2012. He dominated AA and AAA last season, going 12-2 with a 2.42 ERA and a 1.289 WHIP, striking out 157 while walking 61 in 130.1 innings. He may struggle with his control in 2013, but all young pitchers do. But what he will do is strikeout a ton of guys.

Wandy Rodriguez, PIT

Wandy was once a hot commodity in fantasy drafts for his ability to strike out batters and keep his ERA low. Well, he now calls PNC Park home, and one thing you can say about PNC Park is that it is one of the more beautiful parks in baseball. The other thing you can say about it is that it was the third hardest park to score runs in last season. PNC Park depressed run scoring by 24% and home runs by 37% last season. Wandy doesn't strike out as many batters as he used to, but he keeps the ball on the ground at a 48% rate. I think we can see Wandy outperform his draft round in 2013.

Andy Pettitte, NYY

Pettitte made just 12 starts last season, going 5-4 with a 2.87 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 3.27xFIP and a 1.14 WHIP in just 75.1 innings. What jumped out at me when reviewing his player page over at FanGraphs was his 8.24 K/9 and his 2.51 BB/9. The K rate was his highest since 2004. 2004!! And the walk rate was his lowest since 2008. Pettitte will turn 41 in June, and may not be drafted in many mixed leagues, but he should be someone you consider late in your drafts. The AL East isn't the strong hitting division it used to be.

Marco Estrada, MIL

I wrote about Estrada yesterday in Bret's Who's My Guy article. Here is what i wrote:

You probably never heard of Brewers starter Marco Estrada before last year, and it's probably because he's a 29 year old pitcher who had made just 9 career starts before the 2012 season. He probably won't be drafted in many mixed leagues, but he should. Of all the starting pitchers who threw more than 130 innings last season, only six of them had a higher strikeout per nine rate (9.30 K/9) than Estrada, but none of them had a lower walk rate than Estrada (1.89 BB/9). That list of starting pitchers includes Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez and Yu Darvish. Yeah, he's in good company.
Estrada made 23 starts last season, going 5-7 with a 3.64 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 3.48 xFIP and a 1.14 WHIP. He is prone to giving up the long ball (1.17 per nine), but that should regress a bit in 2013, as Miller Park played as an extreme home run park last season. Miller Park increased home runs to left handers by 42% and right handers by 30%. Extreme with a capital E. Estrada was successful last season as he threw first pitch strikes to almost 62% of the batters he faced, so he likes to get ahead of hitters. He also induced swinging strikes at a 10.2% rate, ranking 21st amongst all starters.
Estrada should continue to provide value to fantasy owners in 2013, as he is slated to start the season in the Brewers rotation, and could strike out 180 batters in 2013.

Scott Baker, CHC

The Cubs signed Baker this offseason with the hope to trade him for a prospect sometime in June or July. Now that that is out of the way, I like the move by the Cubs. Baker hasn't started a game since 2011, when he made 21 starts, going 8-6 with a 3.14 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, and a 1.17 WHIP. He strikeout rate was in an uptrend before his Tommy John surgery, and his walk rate has been steadily in the low 2's, so Baker has a very good shot at outperforming his draft round with the move to the National League in 2013.

Shelby Miller, STL

Miller was the subject of many prospect ranking downgrades last season, but he turned things around in the second half of the season in AAA, earning himself a promotion to the big league club. He may not make the active roster on Opening Day, but he will be the first pitcher called up if any starter lands on the DL in St. Louis, and they do have a few guys who landed there last season (Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia). Miller made 27 starts in AAA last season, going 11-10 with a 4.74 ERA. Take that ERA with a grain of salt as Miller was pitching in the Pacific Coast League, where hitters parks are as plentiful as pints of Guinness on St. Patty's Day at your local Irish Pub. I expect Miller to start the season in AAA to keep his arm stretched out, but he should get a call up by June at the latest, and should provide fantasy owners with solid strikeout totals.

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