2012 Prospect Rankings Review: National League Starting Pitchers

Liz Condo-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

Fake Teams ranked the top fantasy starting pitching prospects in the preseason and again at midseason. How did the prospects with National League teams fare this season, and did we learn anything new from this performance?

Over the past week, I have been taking a brief look back at how the top prospects at each position (as ranked during the preseason and again in the midseason) performed this year, and whether they improved or worsened their stock this year. Note that each of these reviews are not new rankings, and will not discuss anyone not on either of those rankings. We have finished up the infield, and will be breaking both the outfield and starting pitcher discussions into separate posts by league.

You can find the previous reviews here: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Shortstop, Third Base, NL Outfield, AL Outfield, AL Starting Pitchers

You can also find our preseason SP rankings here, as well as the midseason SP rankings here. All statistics are courtesy of Baseball Reference, and are through Wednesday's games.

Drew Pomeranz (Rockies)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

9

Not Eligible

AA/AAA/MLB

6

13

4.04

142.1

150

64

14

65

126

1.51

2012 was the first full season Pomeranz spend with the Rockies organization, and it was kind of a mixed bag. His performance in the minors was excellent, but even after accounting for moving to Colorado the home run rate is concerning. Add in a walk rate that isn't so great also and you have another Rockies pitcher who may not be particularly useful for fantasy owners.

Trevor Bauer (Diamondbacks)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

5

3

AA/AAA/MLB

13

4

2.82

146.2

121

46

11

74

174

1.33

There were rumors at the start of the season that Bauer might make the Diamondbacks rotation within the first month or so of the season. The Diamondbacks didn't end up bringing Bauer up until much later in the season, and the struggles with efficiency seemed to really hurt his chance at success at the time. That improved dramatically after he was sent back to AAA, and he should be in the rotation come Opening Day

Tyler Skaggs (Diamondbacks)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

6

7

AA/AAA/MLB

10

9

3.44

151.2

142

58

18

50

137

1.27

Skaggs continued his meteoric climb through the minors this year, as he was dominant at AA, and pitched very well at AAA also. Skaggs has likely earned at least a shot at a rotation spot next year, but I wonder if he might be the one left without a chair when the music stops. I do think that if he ends up back at AAA, it won't be because he isn't ready to be in the Majors.

Matt Harvey (Mets)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

20

20

AAA/MLB

10

10

3.35

169.1

139

63

14

74

182

1.26

We were able to see Harvey in the Majors this year for ten starts, and there's a ton to like for the 2013 season. Harvey's stuff can be downright filthy at times, and should lead to a ton of strikeouts and bad contact. The walk rate is a bit concerning, but the lack of hits allowed really keeps WHIP in check anyway.

Shelby Miller (Cardinals)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

4

11

AAA/MLB

12

10

4.65

143.1

146

74

24

52

169

1.38

Miller struggled at the start of the season, and there were rumors that he came to camp out of shape. However, something just clicked again in late July, as he was dominant again for his last 6 starts in the minors. With 5 starters already under contract for 2013, Miller may find himself on the short end of the stick at the start of the season.

Julio Teheran (Braves)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

3

12

AAA/MLB

7

9

5.18

135.1

150

78

18

44

102

1.43

It really was not a good year for Teheran in 2012. While he wasn't necessarily expected to join the Braves' rotation, it was expected that he would be better than he had been in 2011. It's hard to really get too far down on his potential at this point, as he is still just 21 years old at the end of the season. He does appear to be slotted to start the season back in AAA for a third time though next year.

Robbie Erlin (Padres)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

19

NR

AAA

3

3

2.82

60.2

60

19

6

16

80

1.253

It was a lost season for Erlin, who missed substantial time this year with elbow tendonitis. He did start throwing before the end of the minor league season though, which is a good sign for his chances in 2013.

Zack Wheeler (Mets)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

21

8

AA/AAA

12

8

3.26

149

115

54

4

59

148

1.168

The prospect acquired in last season's Carlos Beltran trade, the Mets may have another top starting pitcher on their hands. Wheeler was excellent across both AA and AAA, and seems likely to be in their rotation by the end of next season.

Gerrit Cole (Pirates)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

7

10

A+/AA/AAA

9

7

2.80

132

113

41

7

45

136

1.197

There were games this year where Cole looked every bit the #1 overall pick, and it seemed that there were days when the performance just didn't live up to the hype. Overall Cole had a very good season, and seems likely to start 2013 with the Pirates' AAA affiliate.

Jameson Taillon (Pirates)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

15

5

A+/AA

9

8

3.55

142

120

56

10

38

116

1.113

This was the first season where Taillon was allowed to really let loose, use all of his arsenal, and try to pitch deeper into games. He'll be back in AA to start next year after making just 3 starts there this year, but the 18:1 K/BB ratio in 17 innings leads me to think he may not be there for most of the season.

Carlos Martinez (Cardinals)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

14

9

A+/AA

6

5

2.93

104.1

91

34

6

32

92

1.179

Martinez pitched well across both High-A and AA this year, but the concerns about whether or not he will be a starter long-term seem to remain. He also missed over a month due to shoulder tendonitis during the middle of the season, but did return from the injury during the year.

Jose Fernandez (Marlins)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

NR

13

A/A+

14

1

1.75

134

89

26

2

35

158

0.925

Fernandez may have improved his prospect stock more than any other single prospect all season. He started out the season dominating the Low-A level, and was promoted to High-A after the Futures Game. Despite being a high school draftee, Fernandez continued to dominate in High-A, and he could potentially finish up the 2013 season in the Majors.

Archie Bradley (Diamondbacks)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

11

6

A

12

6

3.84

136

87

58

6

84

152

1.257

Bradley didn't receive as much press during the season as his counterpart from the state of Oklahoma, and with good reason: pitching prospects drafted out of high school don't generally have an easy go of it at the beginning. Bradley had good starts this season, but the overall walk rate indicates that there is more to work on for him. The ceiling for Bradley really hasn't changed though, and there may be a slight buy-low opportunity on him for fantasy owners.

Joe Ross (Padres)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

NR

14

Rk/A

0

2

6.26

27.1

33

19

2

11

27

1.610

Ross was a bit of a quiet first rounder in the 2011 draft, and injuries combined with poor performance this year have not really made the picture on him any clearer.

Tyrell Jenkins (Cardinals)
Preseason Rank Midseason Rank Level W L ERA IP H ER HR BB K WHIP

NR

17

A

4

4

5.14

82.1

84

47

5

36

80

1.457

Jenkins pitched in a full season league for the first time this year, and the biggest concern for me is that he was shut down in late August with a shoulder injury. His overall numbers are a bit skewed by a pair of back-to-back 8 run disasters back in May.

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