Fantasy Football 2012 - ADP Report #3

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What is the most valuable tool when deciding to draft or wait on a player? ADP….it stands for Average Draft Position. It is simply the average draft pick that a player is getting drafted in recent Mocks. For example, Calvin Johnson’s ADP is 5.61 and when you rank that value against the value of all other players, that makes him the 5th selection or a #5 ADP. Why does it matter? Because, reaching on a player because you did not know that you could have waited two rounds to get him is the best way to RUIN the value of your draft.

Every other week since May, I have been compiling ADP data from over a dozen sources. These sources are Expert Drafts, Top 200 Lists and Amateur Mock Draft results. It’s a valuable tool for me, but I have found that tracking the MOVEMENT from week-to-week is MOST telling. So, every two weeks I will show YOU (the loyal Fake Teams readers) what trends I’m finding by position or by player.

And keep in mind, Fantasy Football values/ADP's are CAUSE and EFFECT. Meaning as one player’s status rises or falls, someone else’s values moves in opposite. There are many examples of that in this report, which I’ve pointed out, below. So, ALWAYS remind yourself when you hear significant news on a player, "How does this news affect those around him?"

This week, I will be highlighting the Top 10 "On the Rise" and the Top 10 "Lookout Below". So, let's dig in!

ON THE RISE:

  1. Kevin Smith (DET) rose a whopping 27 spots over the last two weeks and is now a 10th Round Pick (119). It's clear that his rise is due to the other Detroit RB's stumbling around him.
  2. Tim Hightower (WAS) also rose an astounding 27 spots over the last two weeks to 131. And, I see his stock continuing to rise as he has been named the Redskins' RB1 on the initial depth chart.
  3. Kendall Wright (TEN) jumped two dozen spots to 145 as Kenny Britt's legal and knee issues continue to tumble him down draft boards. This rookie WR could be a steal on draft day as he could be an exciting part of the Titan passing attack.
  4. Coby Fleener (IND) took a 15 spot step forward to 139 as word out of Anderson, Indiana is that he and Andrew Luck (college teammates) are clicking in Colts camp.
  5. Stevan Ridley (NE) also jumped 15 spots to 76. This is being fed by reports that Ridley is working well with the first team and it further fueled by the lack of RB depth.
  6. Evan Royster (WAS) moved up 11 spots to 159 as news has him overtaking Roy Helu in Ashburn, VA.
  7. Ryan Williams (ARI) continued his romp toward the Top 100 has he moved up 11 more spots to 106, this week. Don't you just hate when you are high on a sleeper and then the whole world comes around before you have a chance to get a draft day value?? Williams will be a steal this season.
  8. Owen Daniels (HOU) moved up 9 spots as people are realizing that he is the 2nd best pass catcher in H-town
  9. Peyton Hillis (KC) slid up 9 spots and is now a legit RB3 for fantasy.
  10. Aaron Hernandez (NE) strode up 7 spots as word around camp is that this "forgotten Tight End in New England" could lead the team in catches!
LOOKOUT BELOW:

  1. Jahvid Best (DET) tumbles 17 spots to 91 and fuels the rise of our Cover Boy Kevin Smith. Never encouraging when your coach says "We're measuring his return in WEEKS, not DAYS". Everyone OFF the Best Bandwagon.
  2. Rueben Randle (NYG) fell 15 spots as the WR3 role for the Giants is still up for grabs.
  3. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) lost 15 spots in the ranking and is barely rosterable at this point. He may be a late-round "stash & hold" guy in Dynasty Leagues.
  4. Mike Tolbert (CAR) dropped 13 spots to 168 and is a draft day after-thought at this point. He has virtually NO role in Carolina that equates to fantasy points.
  5. Kenny Britt (TEN) also lost a Baker's Dozen to fall to 84. I really hate to see a guy with so much potential just fading away before our eyes. Let's hope that his meeting with the Commish this week went well!
  6. Mario Manningham (SF) fell a dozen spots to 136. Super Mario is not much more than a late-round flier at this point in San Fran.
  7. Nate Burleson (DET) dropped 11 spots to 172. It IS a crowded WR/TE group in Detroit, but with Matthew Stafford slinging it 600+ times, again...he could be a nice value, late!
  8. Michael Floyd (ARI) lost 11 spots to 143. I think he could be an explosive part to an offense that includes Larry Fitzgerald. The BAD news is that it also includes Kevin Kolb.
  9. Shane Vereen (NE) fell 10 spots to 149. As Ridley rises, Vereen falls....but Shane could be the better VALUE, IF you trust NE to stick with the running game......nope.
  10. Felix Jones (DAL) dropped 9 spots to 127. Looking like not much more than a handcuff for DeMarco Murray for now.
Newly Listed:

These guys cracked the Top 175 this week and are worth keeping an eye on:

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