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What is the most valuable tool when deciding to draft or wait on a player? ADP….it stands for Average Draft Position. It is simply the average draft pick that a player is getting drafted in recent Mocks. For example, Calvin Johnson’s ADP is 5.61 and when you rank that value against the value of all other players, that makes him the 5th selection or a #5 ADP. Why does it matter? Because, reaching on a player because you did not know that you could have waited two rounds to get him is the best way to RUIN the value of your draft.
Every other week since May, I have been compiling ADP data from over a dozen sources. These sources are Expert Drafts, Top 200 Lists and Amateur Mock Draft results. It’s a valuable tool for me, but I have found that tracking the MOVEMENT from week-to-week is MOST telling. So, every two weeks I will show YOU (the loyal Fake Teams readers) what trends I’m finding by position or by player.
And keep in mind, Fantasy Football values/ADP's are CAUSE and EFFECT. Meaning as one player’s status rises or falls, someone else’s values moves in opposite. There are many examples of that in this report, which I’ve pointed out, below. So, ALWAYS remind yourself when you hear significant news on a player, "How does this news affect those around him?"
"ON THE RISE"
· (1) Wait and See Running backs: Matt Forte moved up four spots (to 12) as GM’s were wondering if a hold-out was in his future, DeMarco Murray also moved up four spots (to 14) as GM’s were waiting to hear about the health of his 2011 broken ankle and the rumors are true….Doug Martin IS the starting running back in Tampa, so he rose three more spots (to 49) this week.
(2) RB2’s and RB3’s: I think the rise shown with these guys is being caused by the awareness of the scarcity of starting running backs. Isaac Redman rose seven (to 64), James Starks rose six (to 78), Donald Brown rose six (to 79) and Shane Vereen rose eight (to 139). Vereen is also helped by the Pats’ cut of Joseph Addai….remember that cause/effect.
· (3) Handcuffs: As the calendar moves closer to their ACTUAL draft dates, mock drafters start to draft more like "real" drafts. This means that handcuffed running backs are starting to be drafted earlier. Ben Tate (up 8 to 85), Toby Gerhart (up 7 to 92) and Ryan Williams (up 10 to 117) were all helped by this change in thinking. Toby and Ryan were also both helped by their RB1’s (Adrian Peterson and Beanie Wells) starting camp on the Physically Unable to Perform (or PUP) list…..cause/effect. Or perhaps everyone has read my article touting Ryan Williams as a 2012 Sleeper and THAT is rocketing him up the charts!!
· (4) Next Man Up: I wrote in a previous article that to be successful in Fantasy Football you must have TWO things: Skills and Opportunity. We just read above how this theory has helped the values of Gerhart and RyWill, but the biggest mover of the week was Nate Washington. So, ask yourself, "Did his skills change in a week?" No, but his opportunity certainly has! Nate was looking at a camp battle for snaps at WR2 with rookie Kendall Wright and several others. BUT with Kenny Britt being arrested for DUI after his third knee surgery, Britt is falling and the other Titan WR’s are on the rise. "What effect does that news have on Hasselbeck/Locker?", you ask. Not a good one.
"LOOK OUT BELOW"
· Hold-Outs: Luckily the dreaded hold-out bug has not stung as many stars as we had previously expected. But, Mike Wallace (down 3 spots to 32) and the Steelers seem to be playing a game of chicken. And, with Pittsburgh signing Antonio Brown to a 5-year extension, yesterday….they are winning the Leverage Game! Look at Wallace to continue to slip as the days/weeks go by. And remember he DOES have a new offense to learn, too. Another hold-out whose stock will be dropping soon is Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD is not happy with the last two years on his contact (nearly $10 Million) and he is officially a hold-out. It appears that NO new contract is coming, so will the 2011 Rushing Champ come to camp with his tail between his legs or will he miss games? Also, MJD’s teammate, rookie Justin Blackmon, is holding out as the Jags decide how to craft contract language following a recent DUI. Dwayne Bowe is also not in camp for the Chiefs.
· PUP-Listers: I have mentioned many players above whose injuries are starting to drop their stock. Peterson, Beanie, Jahvid Best and Hakeem Nicks among others will see their ADP dropping before Report #3 is written. Check news and notes on other players on the list.
· Knuckle-Heads: Run ins with the law have killed the draft stock of Marshawn Lynch (down 7 spots to 19 and MANY more drops to come when/if a suspension is announced) and Dez Bryant (down 1 to 43, but wait and see what Roger G has to say). And, we have already spoken about Kenny Britt’s issues. He will continue to tumble when his suspension is announced, as well.
· Question Marks: Ben Roethlisberger saw his ADP drop five spots (to 81) this week. I think the public is worried about his relationship with new OC Todd Haley. And couple that with him being without his WR1 (Wallace), and the questions abound for Big Ben’s value. Also, the ALWAYS tumultuous Redskin running back carousel continues to turn in training camp. All off-season it was Roy Helu’s job to lose. But, Evan Royster started camp taking snap with the "ones" this week and that has sent Helu’s ADP down six spots (to 57).
My final note is, if you’re NOT doing Mock Draft….then START. Practice makes Perfect!