Fantasy Football – ADP Report #1

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In a Fantasy world FULL of acronyms…..PPR, YAC, RBBC, YPC…..NONE may be as important as ADP. But, WHAT is ADP and WHY should you care??

ADP stands for Average Draft Position. It is simply the average pick number a player is getting drafted in recent Mock Drafts. For example, Calvin Johnson’s ADP is 5.79 which when you rank him against all other player makes him the 5th selection or a #5 ADP. Why does it matter? I’ll explain that in a little story. This week, during one of my 15 or 20 weekly Mock Drafts (Yes, I have a problem), and I came across a guy that was ecstatic to get new Bronco QB Peyton Manning in the 3rd Round of a 10-team draft. He said, "Yes, I’m always getting Peyton in the third!" (He was VERY happy with himself.) I told him that he is getting him in the third because Peyton’s ADP is 59. Meaning….that he could easily wait until the 4th, 5th or even the 6th round to select him. The ADP tool basically helps you not to "reach" too much.

Every other week since May, I have been compiling and averaging ADP data from a dozen or more sources. These sources are Expert Drafts, Top 200 Lists and Mock Draft results. It’s a nice tool for me, but I found that tracking the MOVEMENT week-to-week is MOST telling. Every two weeks, I will show YOU (the loyal Fake Teams readership) what trends I’m finding by position or by player. This week was particularly telling by position:

"ON THE RISE"

  1. (1) Running Backs this week are bounding UP the ADP ranking. There are almost too many to mention, but here is a short list if the biggest movers: Marshawn Lynch (up 5), Steven Jackson (up 4), Michael Turner (up 5), Doug Martin (up 9!), Shonn Greene (up 10!), Willis McGahee (up 7), Jahvid Best (up 6), James Starks (up 11!), etc etc. So, we HAVE the data, now WHAT does it tell us?? It tells me that as mock drafters are doing more and more mocks they are realizing that RB’s (esp quality starting ones) are very scarce this year. And because of this, we’re seeing them taken earlier and earlier.
  2. (2) Back-up Quarter Backs are also On the Rise. Josh Freeman was up 9 spots and Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco and Ryan Fitzpatrick were up 15, 9 and 9, respectfully. Once again, WHY is this happening? I surmise that as mockers are trying to make their teams more ‘real’ as we get closer to SEPT, and they are now filling their rosters with viable back-up QB’s. Compared to the mocks of May/June, they were just drafting to draft.

"LOOK OUT BELOW"

  1. (1) I guess it goes to figure, if ONE group is rising (RB’s) then another group is bound to fall. And in THIS update, it unquestionably was Wide Receivers. Many fell, but here are some notables: Kenny Britt (down 6), Brandon Lloyd (down 4), DeSean Jackson (down 4), Steve Johnson (down 5), Justin Blackmon (down 12!) and Michael Floyd (down 7). WR is particularly deep this year (esp at the top), and I believe mock drafters are starting to find this out.
  2. (2) It’s not a huge sample size, but I did see significant drops from Aaron Hernandez (down 9) and Jermichael Finley (down 7). Tight End is deep this year, with three tiers in my mind….The Rob Gronkowski & Jimmy Graham group, the mid-tier full of the Jason Witten and Antonio Gates types and a big group of late sleepers like Jared Cook.

NOTES

  1. (1) This week’s tweet from Larry Fitzgerald has raised some eyebrows among the FF public and it shows in his ADP (down 7) "I’m charging (Michael Floyd) with a DWI, "don’t want it" he missed 3rd straight workout 2day". This may be LFitz trying to motivate the rookie OR it could be insight into Floyd’s work ethic.
  2. (2) As mentioned earlier, Justin Blackmon’s ADP dropped 12 spots this week. This has to stem from his second (actual) DWI. Mock Drafters are questioning his dedication, decision making and (oh yeah) his terrible QB.
  3. (3) Antonio Brown was one of the FEW WR’s to move UP this week…rising 5 spots. This may be an indication that drafters are starting to devalue Mike Wallace due to his contract situation and perhaps his rough finish to 2011.
  4. (4) LeGarrette Blount CONTINES to fall, dropping another 13 spots this week! It appears for now, that the job could be Doug Martin’s. Can anyone ELSE not wait until Training Camp?!?!

My final note is, if you’re NOT doing Mock Draft….then START. Practice makes Perfect. And, if you see the "Guy w/the Hair" online, say "Hey".

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