Prospects Chat: Excerpts from Keith Law Chat

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - APRIL 16: Tim Lincecum #55 of the San Francisco Giants pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies at AT&T Park on April 16, 2012 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

ESPN's prospect expert Keith Law hosted a chat on Thursday afternoon, and here are some excerpts, including his thoughts on Tim Lincecum and hitter and pitcher BABIP:

Jeff (MN)

I'm tempted to drop Lincecum. Will he bounce back or will the struggles continue?

Klaw
(2:05 PM)

I don't know about dropping him - he might get hurt when he lands - but I think this is the beginning of something not good for him. The velo, the command, the comments about his elbow ... these don't add up to a happy ending.

I think the fact that he ditched the slider was enough to know that the pitch hurts him arm when he throws it. Why would a pitcher ditch a pitch that is effective for him?

Goose (Chicago)

Which 19 year-old pitching prospect would you rather have long-term: Dylan Bundy or Taijuan Walker? Seems like Bundy is getting the press while Walker has been dominating better competition.

Klaw
(1:13 PM)

Bundy. Better stuff and polish.

Walker is pitching well in AA for the Mariners. In two starts, he is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and a 15-2 strikeout to walk ratio in 11 innings pitched. Jason Parks from Baseball Prospectus projected that he could be in the mix for #1 overall prospect in baseball.

Jim (Springfield)

Taveras has looked good in Springfield so far considering is doing well in Double A at 19, even though it is a SSS. What is Taveras' ceiling?

Klaw
(1:31 PM)

All-Star RF. Could be a high-average guy with power but not a lot of walks.

Taveras is very young for AA, but he is hitting .351-.362-.667 with 3 HRs and 14 RBI in 57 at bats so far this season. The Cardinals signed Carlos Beltran to a 2 year deal this offseason, so Taveras could be ready for the big leagues when Beltran's contract is up.

More chat excerpts after the jump:

John (Canada)

If you had to pick one ... Marisnick or Gose as your CFer of the future?

Klaw
(1:41 PM)

Marisnick. Much higher offensive upside. I'll give back the 5 runs a year on defense (if it's even that much).

Marisnick is currently hitting .250-.378-.417 with 5 RBI, 4 stolen bases and a 14-8 strikeout to walk rate in 60 at bats thus far in High A.

Jon (DC )

I can't figure out if BABIP is helpful to making any determination or not? Good hitters have higher BABIP's and so it doesnt regress to the mean? Bad hitters don't? Inverse for pitchers? Is it useful at all?

Klaw
(1:46 PM)

Pitcher BABIPs tend to regress to league-average (adjusting for park and defense) over time. Hitters have more control over BABIP, yet are still subject to random fluctuations around what we might call their true talent level.

This is something fantasy owners should know when analyzing pitchers and hitters in the season and during the offseason.

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