As Kevin indicated yesterday, we held the first annual Fake Teams H2H Points league draft on Sunday night, and I have never heard of the show The Walking Dead.
This was my first ever Head to Head Points league draft, and you can tell by my first pick - second overall - that I am a rookie in these types of leagues. As much as I like Matt Kemp, I know that pitchers are very valuable in H2H leagues, so I drafted the next best Dodger - Clayton Kershaw.
I used Kevin's rankings before and during the draft to assist me in determining which players I should choose based on the point totals they put up in 2011. Yes, I know past performance is not a good indicator of future performance, but used them nevertheless.
Anyway, my draft results and analysis are after the jump:
As Kevin mentioned in his draft recap we drafted C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, OF, OF, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, 7 BN
Here are the results of my draft, in round order:
R1 - Clayton Kershaw, LAD
R2 - Mark Teixeira, NYY
R3 - Adrian Beltre, TEX
R4 - Alex Gordon, KC
R5 - Jay Bruce, CIN
R6 - Jon Lester, BOS
R7 - Dan Uggla, ATL
R8 - Dee Gordon, LAD
R9 - Josh Beckett, BOS
R10 - Joel Hanrahan, PIT
R11 - Andre Ethier, LAD
R12 - Chris Young, ARI
R13 - Jaime Garcia, STL
R14 - Javy Guerra, LAD
R15 - Jeff Franceour, KC
R16 - Yadier Molina, STL
R17 - Mike Leake, CIN
R18 - Matt Thornton, CHW
R19 - Dexter Fowler, COL
R20 - Jonathon Niese, NYM
R21 - Bryce Harper, WAS
R22 - Jose Altuve, HOU
R23 - Brian Matusz, BAL
I was happy getting Yadi in the 16th round as he had his best year ever last year, and some, Ron Shandler specifically, thinks he can build on his power output in 2012. Shandler has his upside projection at 20 HRs and 80 RBI in 2012. I don't think he gets there, but if he can repeat his 2011 power output, I should be fine.
With the top first baseman gone, I had to grab Teixiera in the 2nd round here. He provides solid power totals every year, and could hit a few more "Tex messages" if he can improve his BABIP in 2012.
I just dropped Dan Uggla in one of my NL-only keeper leagues at $27, and kinda wish I didn't. Despite his poor BA, his power for a second baseman is excellent, and you can count on his for 30-90-85 every year. I saw a Braves beat writer project 38 home runs from him on Twitter over the weekend. Wouldn't surprise me.
Starlin Castro was taken two spots before my pick in the 4th round, otherwise I would have taken him with the 11th pick in the round. As a result, I grabbed Dee Gordon in the 8th round. I think he can duplicate or outperform Elvis Andrus in 2012. Uhh, yeah......I AM a Dodgers fan. How did you know?
I couldn't pass up one of my favorite players in MLB in the third round as I chose Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre....and yes, he DID play for the Dodgers too. Beltre doesn't run any more, but he hits in one of the better lineups in baseball. If he can stay healthy, a big if, he could put up another 30-100 season in 2012.
After mysteriously passing on Matt Kemp with the second overall pick, I didn't take my first outfielder till the 4th round, but am quite happy with the outfielders I picked. I think Alex Gordon can duplicate his 2011 breakout season, and Reds outfielder Jay Bruce hasn't reached his peak years, but yet already has a 32-97 season under his belt. Bruce hits in a home run park, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him launch 40 homers in 2012.
Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier is poised for a bounce back year in his walk year in LA. I can see him putting up a 25-90-.290 season, assuming he stays healthy. Chris Young improved his walk and strikeout rates in 2011, and just need to improve the contact rate and he could approach a 30-30 season in 2012.
I rounded out my bench with a 20-20 hitter in Jeff Franceour, a breakout waiting to happen in Dexter Fowler and the top hitting prospect in baseball in Bryce Harper. I think Harper will be up in the May/June timeframe after Nationals GM Mike Rizzo tires of watching Rick Ankiel and Roger Bernadina in center. Fowler had a terrific second half last year hitting .288-.381-.498 with 37 extra base hits and 51 runs scored in his 271 at bats.
Well, I got one of the best starters in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, with the #2 overall pick. I think he can come close to his 2011 stats, with possibly a few more strikeouts. He may not win 20 games, but he has a underrated bullpen behind him, so he could win around 16-18.
I was happy grabbing Lester and Beckett, as I think they can both win 15+ games in 2012. Bobby V will keep them in line this season, as the Sox are out to prove they are better than they showed in September of last year.
I like Jaime Garcia and Mike Leake this year, as they both are still young and I see them improving upon their 2011 performance. Leake had a bad start to the 2011 season, but had a 3.33 second half ERA and 1.137 WHIP to go along with a K/BB of 3.50. Garcia struggled in the second half last season, but had a terrific first half ERA of 3.22, and as Bret mentioned in his writeup on Garcia awhile back, he strikes out more than 7 batters per nine, and induces ground balls at a 53.6% rate, so with a little more luck with the BABIP and strand rate, his ERA could fall from the 3.50 level from 2011.
I was able to grab three closers in Hanrahan, Guerra and Thornton, and at 7 points per save, it pays to have 3 closers on your roster. The problem is that two of them - Guerra and Thornton - may not be able to keep their jobs with guys like Kenley Jansen and Addison Reed breathing down their necks.
So, how did I do in my first H2H Points league draft?