Scouring the ADP List: Who's Going Last?

Through the powers of Mock Draft Central, we can get a sense of who is going last in standard mixed leagues this year. The average draft position (ADP) of players is collected there, and MDC then ranks the players in rankings built from these average draft positions (i.e., more than one player can have the same average draft position, as they are averages) and also lists the ADP of all drafted players.

With 12 teams and 23-man rosters, you end up with 276 players picked in the draft (not counting reserves, if there are any). Ranked at 276 -- as in, the player Mock Draft Central lists as having the 276th-best value among all those drafted -- is Allen Craig. Craig's average draft position is actually better than that, at 241.74, and the earliest he was selected was at 189. He's not drafted in every league, though -- just 70.8 percent of them -- so that's brought him down overall.

Craig is set to miss at least a little time as he recovers from having a screw inserted in his knee, so it's no surprise to see him fall this far despite his hitting .290/.339/.503 in 339 career plate appearances. For this reason, though, he's a good guy to remember at the end of the draft: everyone else is forgetting him, and letting him sit. If he hits his way into some playing time, you've got some serious production coming at assorted positions.

With actual ADP of 276, we've got two players: Garrett Jones and Travis Hafner. Jones is useful enough in NL-only leagues, but in standard... well, it's kind of amazing to see someone get enough picks to rank 276 in ADP when they have hit .245/.312/.422 while manning offense-heavy positions the last two years. He's owned in just 10.5 percent of leagues, though, but the earliest he's been picked is 267. That's apparently happened enough times to get him this high.

Hafner is for more useful from a production perspective, as he's hit .277/.364/.456 the last three years. Problem is, he's also averaged just 102 games and 404 plate appearances per season over that stretch, so he's not getting enough quantity to help out the quality. His lack of positions -- he can only be used at utility -- also hurts his value. He's owned in just 2.6 percent of leagues because of it.

It's fascinating to see players with so little to offer still making it into the very back of end of your standard draft. Yet, poor little Will Venable gets ignored completely, ranking 380 overall with an ADP outside the scope of a standard mixed league. At least you know there are deals to be had at the back end of your draft, once That Guy takes Garrett Jones.

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