Beware the Ides of March, folks. Today is one of the craziest days of the year for NBA fans and fantasy basketball owners alike. NBA teams will be looking to get better for their stretch runs, dumping expiring contracts, and of course just for the sake of rolling the dice. Consequently, a lot of players could see some changes to their fantasy values in an instant even before they hit the hardwood.
Today I'll be posted up at my computer breaking down the deals as they happen on this blog. Be sure to check back repeatedly once the deals are announced. I'd also encourage you to hop on Twitter and follow me @MikeSGallagher. I'll have the quick-hit analysis over there, then provide more thorough analysis of value shifting over here.
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There was a very good chance that Young was going to be dealt today in order to lower the luxury tax on Memphis and Philly pounced on it without giving up much at all. The Pitt Panther product loses what little value he had left with Rudy Gay dealing with a concussion and he's not worth owning in any league. The winner of this deal is Quincy Pondexter. Yes, this is an indication of how tiny of a deal this is from a fantasy perspective. There's a good chance that QP might have a couple good games in him as a plug-n-play while Rudy Gay is on the mend. The U-Dub Husky could also have some deep-league value once Gay makes his return, too. This deal could also be perceived as a positive for Rudy Gay since the Grizzlies might have been less likely to deal young if they had concerns about their max-deal player. As far the the Sixers go, this isn't exactly encouraging news to Spencer Hawes. The Sixers are expecting to play Hawes on Friday, but it will likely be quite some time before he can hit the 30-minute barrier.
Winners: Quincy Pondexter (short-term)
Losers: Spencer Hawes (kind of) and Sam Young
Toronto sent Leandro Barbosa to Indiana for a second-round pick
The Raptors are in sell mode right now and the Brazilian Blur was the first piece they jettisoned. Toronto will save some serious cash in this deal, so saying they got "nothing" isn't exactly correct. Barbosa is likely to lose a little value here now that Indy will have a three-headed monster at the point guard spot. He can be cut in almost any league right now. The interesting part of this deal came from Indy beat writer Mike Wells saying that the addition of Barbosa could make George Hill the starting point since the Pacers would like a scorer off the bench. If you still own Collison in your shallow league, it's not quite time to cut him yet (I'd probably cut him for a hot free agent like Klay Thompson though). By the way, remember when the Pacers gave up Troy Murphy (and his fat contract) to get Collison in a multi-team deal? It seemed like such a steal. Oh well.
The Raptors get some boosts all around. Jerryd Bayless should have already been owned in most leagues with Calderon hurt
and possibly being dealt today. Coach Casey runs some crazy rotations, so it'll be tough to say whether James Johnson, Linas Kleiza, DeMar DeRozan or Bayless will see the biggest increases.
Winners: George Hill (could be a loser in due time), Jerryd Bayless and the Raptors wing players
Losers: Darren Collison and Leandro Barbosa
Gerald Wallace goes to the Nets and he'll be teamed with one of the best point guards in the league in Deron Williams. There's not much of a value change here and Wallace gets a slight boost in overall value because the Nets shoot so many threes. Wallace has been solid as a borderline top-40 player all year and he could jump up a few ticks in value.
The departure of Crash opens the door wide for Nicolas Batum. Batum went on a tear in February, but has since cooled off in March. In fact his last five games have been pedestrian with only 9.2 PPG on 37.5 percent from the field, 3.2 RPG, 0.8 3PM, 0.6 SPG and 0.8 BPG. He'll start at the three, log a ton of minutes and be responsible for most of the scoring on the wing. If your deadline didn't pass yet, do what you have to do to get a deal done for Batum. Over pay if you must. Wesley Matthews is also a huge winner in this deal. Batum's improved play has pushed him to a bench role. Matthews has also stunk up the joint in his last three games with only 6.3 PPG in 29.3 MPG in that span. Despite his struggles, he has been logging some minutes lately with 29.0 MPG in March, which is a bit down from 32.3 in February. He's pretty much a player that needs to be owned for his three-point prowess. Hey, if you're in a really deep league, Luke Babbitt could be a guy that might have some value. Plus the Blazers might not be done today.
This is bad news for a lot of Nets players, namely MarShon Brooks. Brooks was doing very well as the main scorer on the wing and now he'll likely fall behind Wallace for scoring on the wing. It's not like this will totally devastate his value, but he's not exactly a must-own guy with this news.
Winners: Nic Batum, Wesley Matthews, Luke Babbitt and Gerald Wallace (mild)
Losers: MarShon Brooks
We have really beat the heck out of this story for over a month, so you guys should know the deal by now (especially if you listen to Pick-N-Roll). I might be in the minority on this one, but I don't see Sessions really thriving with the Lakers like some other people might. He doesn't shoot the three much, so kickouts from Kobe, Gasol and Bynum aren't likely advantageous to his skill set. Kobe is going to handle the ball the vast majority of time and it's not like Sessions will be able to facilitate much while he's out there. Chances are if he's out there, you're going to have to cut someone with some serious value in your shallow league. I kinda see him as a player that will produce Collison-type value. A guy that might have a big game here and there, but should be inconsistent. I'd rather have a guy like Isaiah Thomas for higher upside.
Sessions was playing 24 MPG with the Cavs even with Kyrie healthy, so they'll need a few guys to step up and fill the void. Obviously, Alonzo Gee solidifies his value a little bit here now that he's moved up a notch on the totem pole for players that can provide offense. Boobie Gibson is also another player that could see his value increase. He is currently playing 25 MPG since returning from injury close to a month ago. If you need threes and your in a deep league, he could be helpful. Kyrie could also need to play a couple more minutes to help the lack of depth. Anthony Parker also has stepped it up a little bit lately. He is hurt too much to consider adding in most leagues though.
Winners: Ramon Sessions, Alonzo Gee, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Parker and Boobie Gibson
Losers: Derek Fisher
The Blazers are going 1998 Florida Marlins on us here. Camby will likely lose value as he'll have to split time at center with Dalembert. If Camby is still out there on your waiver wire, this is not something that should move the needle to make him an "add" for your team. His value does drop a little bit.
The obvious loser on this deal is Samuel Dalembert. Sammy D has been on thin ice with fantasy owners most of the year from McHale yo-yoing him in the lineup. He's not a cut until we see McHale total stick it to him. Plus the Rockets would be wise not to play Camby big minutes based on his propensity to miss games.
Portland is gutted, folks. They just traded for two "busts" in exchange for their starting center. They're clearly in rebuilding mode right now and owners in deeper leagues would want to think about adding their young assets. They could play Aldridge at the five and even give Batum some minutes at the four to open up the three for a number of players. It's a total crap shoot, but guys like Luke Babbitt, Joel Pryzbilla, Flynn or Thabeet. I wouldn't cut anyone with any sort of value until things become less murky.
Winners: TBD (plus the same Blazers mentioned in the Crash deal)
Losers: Camby and Dalembert
The big takeaway here is that the speculation of the Warriors changing their offense to a Klay-mation is a go (sorry, that was lame). He's pretty much a must-add guy and he looks to be the favorite to become this year's Jordan Crawford.
Coach Pop likes Stephen Jackson and this could be good news for his value. If your league is active, Cap'n Jack was likely added yesterday, so it's not like another move should vault his value to shallow-league heights. He does have some upside he's going to a team that could use his skill set. He should start at the three over Leonard and can provide help in a lot of categories.
Richard Jefferson to the Warriors kind of hurts his value by a smidgin. The plus side is that he's no longer dealing with Pop and he goes to a team that could use his range. The down side is that I don't see him leapfrogging Klay, Rush or Wright (which means I don't see Wright and Rush changing their value much). It's not like Mark Jackson's rotation on the wing has been iron-clad or anything, so I wouldn't be surprised if he is able to muster 27 MPG. I doubt it though.
Winners: Klay Thompson, Stephen Jackson
The Lakers received Jordan Hill for Derek Fisher and a first-round pick.
Derek Fisher is could be bought out, so this story isn't quite complete yet. What's clear though is that the Lakers feel confident that Ramon is their man and they just dumped Fisher's salary. Jordan Hill doesn't have any value on the Lakers and he'll need likely Gasol or Bynum to both get hurt to crack 20 MPG. He is a better fit on paper for the Lakers though over McRoberts and Troy Muprhy
Winners: Ramon Sessions
Losers: Portland Trailblazers (kidding)
So the Clippers gave up Brian Cook to get Nick Young? Where's Stern on this one? But I digress. Jordan Crawford just became a monster winner yet again after the deadline. There's really no need to break it down. He's a must-add SG.
JaVale McGee's minutes dropped from 29 to 25 from January to February and he hasn't seen much more time in March with just 26.5 MPG. This is a bit of a head-scratching move to dump a reliable guy like Nene for a guy that seems like he's thinking about what to buy his mom for Mother's Day . Although, McGee could thrive in Karl's up-tempo system and should see his PPG and RPG jump up by 1.5 each (he's at 11.9 PPG and 8.8 RPG). It's not exactly party time for McGee owners, but there are some positive undertones to this deal being done. As for his teammates, McGee is a good player to have with his adept skills on the pick-and-roll. It should help more than hurt Ty Lawson and Andre Miller. As for the other frontcourt players, it's pretty much a straight flip for Nene (29 MPG) and McGee (27 MPG). In other words, Kenneth Faried didn't see his value change on paper. However, the willingness to trade Nene could be perceived as throwing in the towel and Faried might be let loose more than he was prior to today (23.2 MPG in last five).
Nene Hilario goes from arguably the best fantasy offense to, well, Washington. Kidding aside, Washington is actually fifth in the NBA in possessions per game. Washington is only 23rd in PPG thanks largely in part to their 26th-ranked FG%. All that said, it's not terrible for Nene and he should be able to carve out a significant role at the five next to Trevor Booker. In summation, his value only takes a miniscule hit.
Andray Blatche is still a Wizard. Wittman could start to play him now, or he could keep him at his current 15.5 MPG that he's been playing since returning from his calf injury. I wouldn't bend over backwards to add him but he's kind of a winner from this deal since he didn't go anywhere and maybe he can get his act together.
Nick Young is a loser in being sent to the Clippers. He was a high-volume shooter (at least he thought he was) with Washington and he will likely see his season average of 14.8 shots per game drop to single digits. Chris Paul should set him up nicely for some triples, but there doesn't appear to be enough upside with his new team. Similarly, another loser is obviously Randy Foye. He should be cut in most leagues since he will likely take a backseat to Nick Young. Mo Williams is another guy that should find his way to waiver wires in some standard leagues. Yes, there's a chance that one of these three can outperform the other two, but it's a big ol' mess.
Winners: Jordan Crawford (massive), JaVale McGee (mild), Kenneth Faried, Andray Blatche
Losers: Nick Young, Randy Foye, Mo Williams and Nene (mild)
That might be it. If another story comes out about a deal, I'll be updating it here. Thanks for reading!