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Prospect Rankings Discussion: A Quick Look at Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

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Thursday morning, Keith Law released his much anticipated top 100 prospects list, as well as his top 10 prospects for each team. With prospect research always been so much of a crapshoot, I like to take a look at as many of these types of lists as possible. We saw earlier in the week some of Craig's thoughts on the top 100 list provided by Scout.com, and in the coming weeks we will also likely receive lists from Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, as well as Baseball America. While all of these lists are rating and reviewing prospects based on their real-life value, there is a lot to be gleaned from how the players are viewed by the industry as a whole.

Here's Law's top 10, along with some of my thoughts after the jump:

RANKPOSITIONPLAYERTEAMHEIGHTWEIGHTAGE
1 CF Mike Trout L.A. Angels 6-1 217 20
2 RF Bryce Harper Washington 6-2 245 19
3 LHP Matt Moore Tampa Bay 6-2 205 22
4 SS Manny Machado Baltimore 6-3 185 19
5 RHP Shelby Miller St. Louis 6-3 195 21
6 C Travis d'Arnaud Toronto 6-2 195 22
7 SS Jurickson Profar Texas 5-11 165 18
8 C Devin Mesoraco Cincinnati 6-1 220 23
9 DH/C Jesus Montero Seattle 6-3 235 22
10 RHP Gerrit Cole Pittsburgh 6-4 220 21

Star-divide

  • I love the Travis d'Arnaud ranking at #6 overall, and while I'd probably put him behind Montero for fantasy purposes, I think d'Arnaud is likely to give above-average production while he is more likely to stay behind the plate.
  • Julio Teheran at #18 seems a bit low to me, especially when it seems that he's essentially ready to contribute right now. It seems really strange to me when I see that Arodys Vizcaino has also jumped ahead of him on the list (#14).
  • Granted that it is just two spots, but I'm not sure if I have seen a top 100 list that had Archie Bradley ahead of Trevor Bauer.
  • Law clearly still believes in Casey Kelly, as evidenced by ranking him at #32 overall.
  • I like the aggressive ranking of Mason Williams at #34. He's still a long way away, as he hasn't played above short-season ball, but there's clearly a lot to like there.
  • I keep hearing little blips about Padres' prospect Joe Ross, but this is the first time I've seen him on one of these lists. Must do more research.
  • In the on-going debate between Blue Jays' outfielders, Law placed Marisnick higher than Gose.
  • It seems like every year there's a few prospects who jump into the top 100 for Law that hadn't really gotten that kind of love to this point, and this year the two that stand out to me are John Hellweg of the Angels, and Enny Romero of the Rays.
  • Interestingly, the systems with the most top 100 prospects were the Padres (his #1 overall system), the Cardinals, and the Rays, all with 6 prospects.
  • Not particularly surprisingly, the Astros, White Sox, Indians, Marlins, and Phillies all finished with just 1 top 100 prospect each.

What are your thoughts on Law's top 100? Is there a prospect that it is pretty clear to you that he missed? Or one who should have been a lot lower on the list?

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I know KLaw isn't a big fan, but..

Still surprised not to see Brad Peacock on that list. He’s even behind Grant Green on the A’s top 10, which is interesting.

Follow me on Twitter: @tfw_bret

by bretsayre on Feb 9, 2012 2:14 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions  

Yeah, that seemed odd to me too. Figured he would land somewhere near the bottom of the top 100, but I’m wondering if he doesn’t see a lot of upside from where he’s at? (Pure speculation)

by Jason Hunt on Feb 9, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Teheren is rated fairly

He will be good, but I dont think hes a top 10 prospect

Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic

by mathisrocks5 on Feb 9, 2012 2:44 PM EST reply actions  

yes

I saw that in his chat the other day.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 9, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions  

10 times better than KLaw

Klaw not only is the worst follow on the Twitter, but he gets more out of riling people up than doing his job. He’d rather chat about Top Chef or recipes than chat about prospects ON A PROSPECT CHAT! He’s the worst.

by Internet Bullies on Feb 9, 2012 7:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Sarcasm wouldn't exist without stupidity

It’s not his fault stupidity exists.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Feb 9, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Wilin Rosario

what happened to him? He ranks several other catchers,but no Rosario.
I like his ranking on Marisnick and he raves about Rymer Liriano saying he has 30-30 potential.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 9, 2012 4:03 PM EST reply actions  

Rosario

He ranked him as his #4 prospect in the Rockies system, outside the top 100. He had a bit of a down year last year (the counting numbers compared well against 2010, but he played in a lot more games in 2011.

by Jason Hunt on Feb 9, 2012 4:42 PM EST up reply actions  

My guess is that it's his OBP

or lack there of. It’s been under a .300 in two of his last three seasons, and if there’s anything KLaw can’t stand, it’s a player who can’t get on base..

I still very much like him for fantasy leagues (as may become obvious on Tuesday).

Follow me on Twitter: @tfw_bret

by bretsayre on Feb 9, 2012 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Mason Williams

Think mason Williams is way over rated here, def need to see him do something outside the NY Penn league. I understand his scouting report and potential may be way higher but last year at a similar age (2 months older at the time in 2010) Darrell Ceciliani hit .351/.410/.531 in NY PENN lg, I could see Williams towards the end of the top 100 on his potential alone, but 34. Williams could be higher next year or off this list completely.

by tvators01 on Feb 10, 2012 10:21 AM EST reply actions  

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