The More You Know: MLB Prospect Lists

We've all got a method to our madness. In preparation for a minor league draft in my 20 team/15 man minors roster dynasty league mine goes like this: looking at BaseballAmerica's top 10 prospects by organization and buying their prospect handbook, looking at MLB.com's recently released top 100 list and making my own lists of who I like and constantly (obsessively) revising them. While speaking with another member of the aforementioned league about our upcoming draft preparations he mentioned that he looks at "3-4" top 100 lists. Since most of the well regarded and highly anticipated top 100s have yet to be released, I have to admit my interest was piqued. Interest quickly turned to dismay however, when he sent me this list from Scout.com:

While everyone is entitled to their own opinion, I had to disagree with several of theirs. In addition to simple disagreement, their lack of scouting reports and explanations regarding their placement choices left me feeling that this list did more harm than good to any reader who managed to find it. Rank as you will, but if you're going to make such drastic placements as Anthony Rendon at #52 or Yonder Alonso at #98, I think some justification is in order. Additionally, according to their site this list does not adhere to the MLB rookie guidelines; which means some of the listed players may not be eligible in the minor league portion of your draft.

Here are some of the rankings I took issue with, while trying to remain understanding that everyone has their own opinion:

Too High

Aaron Hicks at #27: I was extremely high on Hicks coming out of high school, and thought he displayed tremendous secondary skills for his age. He was able to take a walk, hit for power and looked likely to stick in centerfield. Since then he has showed flashes of his five-tool potential, but on the whole has failed to develop at the pace I anticipated. He still has major issues identifying the breaking ball and has yet to show the ability to get production out of his tools.

Players listed below him who shouldn't be: Jonathan Singleton, Anthony Gose

Christian Bethancourt at #37: I have seen a lot of hype on Bethancourt and I don't think it's unjustified. He's an athletic catcher with a chance at a solid hit tool and developing power. That being said, he's never posted an OPS over 819 and that was in rookie ball. Last year, between repeating Lo-A and making his debut Hi-A, he posted 753 and 602 OPS' respectively. His career OPS is 602. He has great tools behind the plate, but a questionable approach at it. While he is only 20 and has time to develop, I find this to be a highly aggressive ranking.

Players listed below him who shouldn't be: Archie Bradley, Anthony Rizzo

Nestor Molina at #64: While Molina displays remarkable command which causes his stuff to play up, he doesn't own a plus pitch, and profiles more as a back of the rotation starter. While his numbers were great once he moved to the rotation in 2011, many a prospect has dominated the lower minors with superb command and a lack of a plus pitch. 2012 will be a huge year for Molina, and though he ranks highly in the White Sox system, that's essentially being the cream of the crap.

Players listed below him that shouldn't have been: Taijuan Walker, Nathan Eovaldi

Too Low

Trevor Bauer at #36: I profiled Bauer in my Top 12 Pitching Prospects for '12 (at #3), so I will spare you the repetition. Suffice it to say that with his power arsenal, pedigree and ability to contribute as soon as 2012, I struggle to understand how he failed to crack the top 25. It may be a bit nitpicky, but I think he deserved to be ranked ahead of a couple pitchers and several players overall.

Players listed above him who shouldn't have been: Sonny Gray, Dellin Betances

Anthony Rendon at #52: I mentioned Rendon up top briefly, but given that many think he was the best prospect in the draft if healthy, Rendon at 52 seems absurdly low. I'm understanding that his health may have influenced this ranking, but I can't find anyone who believes that his long term outlook is in danger or that his upside doesn't warrant a top 30 (being conservative) ranking in a top prospect list. I profiled Rendon in a prospect comparison earlier this month, so I'll spare you the scouting report there as well. With his ability to move through the minors quickly as well as provide potential gold glove defense at third, or a well above average bat at second, I thought this was perhaps the most egregious error on this list.

Players listed above him that shouldn't been: Grant Green, Jean Segura

Yonder Alonso at #98: If Rendon wasn't the most egregious error, Alonso's ranking was. I can understand taking a strong stance saying that you don't believe in his power at PETCO; and I even think there's an argument there and while I wouldn't make it, it's there and could be made. That said; the guy is Major League ready and proved it in a call-up last year. He can hit for average, showed power last year both in the minors and majors and has the type of swing to succeed in PETCO. He will also be ready this year, and should be a viable run producer, even in the Padres depleted lineup.

People ranked above him that shouldn't be: Matt Szczur, Leonys Martin

Of course this is a necessarily abbreviated list and only highlights a few players in each category that I think were misranked as otherwise this post could have gone on forever. My point is this: don't believe everything that you read. Be careful how much stock you put into lists when you don't know their sources because following a list like this could land you in serious fantasy league danger. Also, I encourage you to take a look at these lists and use them to develop your own thoughts on ranking (it certainly helped me). While I know I was heavy on my disagreements with this list, I do want to mention my appreciation for anyone who takes the time to put something like this together and is bold enough to take an unorthodox stance on certain players. All I'm asking is that when you do so, please take the time to explain your opinion to your readers and why you chose the way you did.

Bottom line: it's smart to get as many opinions as possible when making your draft picks, and the internet is full of them, but take care as not all lists are created equal.