Mike Stanton is Overrated

Compared to players like Dunn, Pujols doesn’t have the same type of raw power, but his ability to make contact plus that above average power is what gives him top 3 power in the league.

It doesn’t matter if a player has the best chance to hit 50 home runs (and it’s not Stanton), it doesn’t give him more fantasy value if he’s not likely to reach it. I wouldn’t project more than 35 home runs for him until he either learns to make more contact or hit more fly balls.

He was riding a BABIP of .345 in the final two months of the season, and I’ll take the under on that as well, and consequently, the under on the .271/.396/.565. His strikeout rates didn’t decrease, and that’s his biggest issue.

The ball park creates other issues, similar to Fenway Park for hitters. BABIP at home will be increased for several players as deep fly ball outs turn into doubles because of the short field and the big wall. It’s not the distance that Mike Stanton has the issue with, as most of his home runs are gone by a long shot, but if he doesn’t increase his contact rate, he won’t give himself enough opportunities to hit the ball out.

The average outfield hits a home run one every 0.027 plate appearances. Stanton hits one every 0.057 plate appearances, or basically, twice as much as the average outfielder. Compare that to Kinsler who is drafted around him who hits one every 0.044 plate appearances compared to the average 2nd basemen who hits one every 0.017 plate appearances, or 2.59 times more than average. Kinsler is also solid all around. Who is more valuable? Numbers across baseball are important, numbers across positions are even more important.

Stanton is extremely overrated for fantasy purposes.

Does his K% drop below 20%? Does he start hitting fly balls at a 50% clip? Does he have the highest HR/FB rate in MLB history?

It’s not likely.

I want all these managers in my leagues.

I’m not a fan of his skill set however.

Please read the article before you try to argue, because you clearly did not.

I’m sorry I didn’t lay everything out for you in bold writing, I figured the reader would be able to understand simple relations between value and performance, but clearly, you missed that year in elementary school.

You spent four, count ‘em, four paragraphs arguing that Stanton won’t hit 50 HR, as if it was relevant to how people value Stanton. I pointed out very few people believe he will do this. So your thesis is wrong because it’s based on a false premise (that people believe Stanton will hit 50 hr when they don’t actually believe that). So instead of acknowledging it, you say "b-b-b-but I also spent 2 or 3 sentences talking about 40 home runs." That is not an answer, it’s just an attempt to change the subject. It wasn’t an answer last time, it’s not an answer this time and it’s not going to be an answer when you say it again in your next comment. No one believes Stanton is going to hit 50 in 2012.

Read the top of the article. I made mention of Adam Dunn and his ability to hit home runs at an extremely high rate, as well as the fact that he was never worth a second round pick. If he was never a 2nd round pick and he managed to clobber 40+ home runs every season, what would Stanton have to do to reach that threshold? He would need about 50 home runs, considering how similar they are in other categories. Once again, my thesis was not about Stanton hitting 50 home runs, it was about his value, which I clearly outlined. Stop trying to argue this, it’s in writing and if you can’t see that, we have greater issues.

Except— news flash!— I did form an actual argument, which you never responded to. It’s right there. Heck, I’ll paste it again and put it in bold so maybe you’ll see it this time: I never said that "commentators opinions are more accurate or important than projections" and I never attributed that belief to you. All of which is true, all of which you couldn’t answer.

Here you go:

So why, in your mind, is that a better representation of what fans believe about Stanton’s than the average of 47 Fangraph projections? It isn’t. These people who are supposedly drafting Stanton for 50 HRs simply don’t exist.

The positional bonus is derived from the difference between average production and the production of a replacement level player at that position. It changes depending on how many positions you have in your league. I used a generic 12 team Yahoo league. It just so happens that in a 12 team Yahoo league with 5 OF slots, OF is more scarce than 3B.

It’s not a problem that Stanton and Longoria are penalized the same for SB totals, because that’s precisely the thing the positional value is designed to counterbalance. So that’s not even an argument. It’s just you failing to understand what the ranking is designed to do. The point stands. No one things Stanton will hit 50, and Stanton is still a top 25 hitter even if he doesn’t hit 40 hr.

Traditional leagues carry 3 OF slots. Even if that’s the case, the 60th outfielder provides more SB value than the 12th 3rd basemen, which means the math is totally butchered.

Yes, it does have a lot to do with it. Thanks for accidentally conceding the point? You have an article titled "Mike Stanton is overrated," you spend more time talking about how he won’t hit 50 than you spend on any other single subject, as if that’s relevant to the question of him being overrated. But no one believes Stanton will hit 50 hr in 2012. You can’t bring yourself to acknowledge you were wrong about this. That casts an air of dishonesty over most of your comments which is probably why you are failing to persuade people.

It is entirely relevant. That’s what he needs to be a top flight fantasy player, and he’s not.

For a while he was a guarantee 40HR, 100R, 100RBI and 100 walk, and it’s surprising to me why there is such hostility towards a Stanton & Dunn comparison, fantasy wise. Other than the Avg, Dunn was really really good.

Now, I don’t completely agree with the article, it kinda make sense, but given his age and supposedly 80 power rating, I find it hard to say he won’t hit 40 HR without drastically change his swing or approach. Give him 600 AB, I think he can even “luck” into 40 HR just by making average or below average contact with the ball.

Now, it seems to me, the article is saying Stanton’s ADP is too high relative to his production. This reminded me a bit on Jose Bautista’s ADP entering last year. After 50+ HR campaign, most 10 team league mock draft that I saw had him pick in 3rd or early 4th round, and his project was something like 260 avg, high 30 HR, 100 rbi, close to 100 run. Let’s just pretend Stanton doesn’t improve anymore, his projection this coming year isn’t that far off from Bautista’s projection last year. Yes, 23rd pick is probably too early, but I still think it’s a bit much to say Stanton’s overrated, fantasy wise, given his current/projected production with his ADP.