It’s always tough to evaluate some of your players once the season is in full swing. We always talk about buying low and selling high, but who know how high or low the value of a certain player is at a given point? It’s with this idea in mind I thought it’d seem like a good idea to get some people together to draft guys based on how they’d project a player to perform for the rest of the season. I gave the owners some instructions so we all knew the format and everything to get us all on the same page. Here it is:
We're going to treat it as a league with daily acquisitions, no injured spots and no sort of games-played restrictions. In other words, it is probably a bad idea to take injured players. It also might behoove everyone to check out some schedules to see which teams have more back-loaded slates in their season. It's an 8-cat H2H where each category is a game (so a team will be 5-3 instead of 1-0 after one week of action). The rosters are pretty self-explanatory and the draft order will be selected at random once I fill the owner slots. I might do some fine-tuning in the next day or two, so nothing is completely concrete except the 8-cat H2H format. We might be changing the rosters a bit based on how many people are able to do the draft.
The rosters were: PG, SG, G, G, SF, PF, F, F, C, C and four bench spots
Below you’ll see every pick of our 12-team, 14-round draft. This got a little messy with a few owners having to cancel, so we made it work by having a few of us draft a couple teams. It was very interesting because many of us had different draft styles on selecting young, safe players and lottery tickets. Plus there was a nice mixture of people grabbing players that are red hot now and others that were steals because of their current cold spell.
1. Brian McKitish (ESPN.com)
2. Brian McKitish (ESPN.com)
3. Adam Levitan (Rotoworld.com)
4. Mike Gallagher (Faketeams.com)
5. Scott Malewig (TheFakeBasketball.com)
6. Aaron Bruski (Rotoworld.com)
7. Mike Gallagher (Faketeams.com)
8. Mike Baum (TheFakeBasketball.com)
9. Neil Tardy (ESPN.com)
10. Adam Levitan (Rotoworld.com)
11. Mike Baum (TheFakeBasketball.com)
12. Neil Tardy (ESPN.com)
The two numbers next to each player’s name is their ADP and also their current value in eight-cat leagues (both in ESPN formats). Each player also has a stat (pulled at the time of the draft on Thursday night), trend or news-related opinion next to his name, too.
1. LeBron James, SF, MIA (1.9, 1)- Career highs in FG% (55.3) and 3P% (43.6); making 0.8 3PM
2. Kevin Durant, SF, OKC (1.5, 2)- Career-low 81 FT%, but 85% in last 11 games at 7.2 FTA per
3. Kevin Love, PF, MIN (9.2, 4)- A top-5 option in pts & boards; #15 in helping FT%
4. Chris Paul, PG, LAC (3.6, 22)- Last 5: 21pt on 53% FG, 10.2ast, 2.0 stls and 2.0 3PM
5. Derrick Rose, PG, CHI (4.5, 8)- Claims toe is good to go
6. Dwyane Wade, SG, MIA (5.0, 86)- Looks to be over ankle; O stats down, D stats up this year
7. Russell Westbrook, PG, OKC (7.6, 11) – Career highs in FG% (45.9) & 3PM (0.6); assist should come
8. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, POR (21.6, 13)- Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome doesn’t mean a thing
9. Dwight Howard, C, ORL (6.6, 34)- Career-high 12.2 FTA per game + career-low 47.4 FT%
10. Stephen Curry, PG/SG, GS (13.8, 137)- Rob Gronkowski has an Anti-Curry
11. Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL (14.3, 3)- You’re welcome
It’s the first round and there really weren’t many surprised. I was probably most surprised by Levitan going with Stephen Curry going 10th. Although he looks to be well worth it from his 29-12 line on Thursday. LaMarcus was a bit earlier than expected too, but I seriously do not a have problem with it at all.
1. Al Jefferson, C/PF, UTAH (20.1, 62)- Ankle tendonitis could pop back up
2. Marc Gasol, C, MEM (59.3, 9)- 39.0 MPG in January for a big man is just nuts
3. Pau Gasol, PF/C, LAL (15.5, 16)- Looking very healthy at his 37.8 MPG
4. John Wall, PG, WSH (17.2, 35)- Only 1 3PM this year
5. Blake Griffin, PF, LAC (12.9, 83)- Got his BPG to 1.0, but FT% is laughable at 51.1
6. Josh Smith, PF/SF, ATL (21.8, 46)- Struggling at the line this year at 51.5% on 4.6 FTA
7. Kyle Lowry, PG, HOU (45.6, 10)- 36% from the field in his last 10
8. Paul Millsap, PF, UTAH (51.7, 18)- Can people please stop calling him underrated? Stud
9. Rudy Gay, SF, MEM (25.1, 50)- 66.2FT% hurting value of a career 76% shooter; 37FG% last 5
10. Ryan Anderson, PF, ORL (119.0, 21)- Your 3PM leader
11. Carmelo Anthony, SF, NY (12.3, 47)- Shot over 50% in just 2 games in 2012
12. Monta Ellis, PG/SG, GS (16.4, 51)- FG% down 5.8 from career avg; MPG down 2.6 from last year
The big move here was by Levitan again by taking Ryan Anderson at 22nd overall. A lot of people might attack this pick by taking him over Carmelo; I actually like Anderson over Melo . Although personally I would have grabbed Monroe there. I really didn’t like Mike Baum grabbing Blake Griffin with that pick. I thought Marc Gasol was a round early, too.
1. Andrew Bynum, C, LAL (42.1, 65)-34.3 MPG yielding a nice 17-12-2 line
2. Ty Lawson, PG, DEN (49.2, 54)- Owners likely expecting more than 0.8 3PM
3. David Lee, PF/C, GS (34.4, 63)-46FG% last 10 and filling it up all over the place
4. Joe Johnson, SG/SF, ATL (35.5, 19)- A different player w/o Horford
5. Tyreke Evans, PG/SG, SAC (30.0, 52)- 40.3 MPG in wins and 34.3 MPG in losses
6. Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, DEN (62.9, 14)- Current top dog for FT% help
7. Greg Monroe, PF/C, DET (61.3, 6)- Percentage superstar with 81.8FT% & 51.5FG%; 16-10, too
8. Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS (23.3, 130)- Targeting a return today
9. Steve Nash, PG, PHO (29.1, 20)- The Nash trade winds are swirling
10. Andre Iguodala, SF/SG, PHI (34.5, 25)- Knee & Achilles tendonitis not an issue this year
11. Brandon Jennings, PG, MIL (58.4, 7)- Leading all guards in 3PM; 43.8FG% is solid too
12. Chris Bosh, PF/C, MIA (31.0, 12)- Wade might hurt a bit, he’s still been remarkably efficient
I love Greg Monroe at 31 and I had him at 19 on my board. It’s an unhealthy love and when I picked Joe Johnson at 28 I was worried Scott Malewig or Aaron Bruski were going to pounce on him. As for their picks, I liked Bruski going for Gallo there and he should certainly remain a top-30 player for the season with the efficiency at the line. As for Scott’s pick, I wasn’t a fan of Tyreke at that spot and would have taken any other player in the round over him except for Nash. The former multi-MVP, Nash is going to battle injuries all year and it feels like he’ll log some DNPs here and there.
1. Amare Stoudemire, C/PF, NY (10.8, 67)- 43FG% down 10% from career avg. Yikes
2. Paul Pierce, SF/SG, BOS (31.0, 38)- Heel injury is obviously a thing of the past
3. Kevin Martin, SG, HOU (28.3, 27)- FTA per down from 8.4 to 4.5; he’s still 3rd for FT value
4. Danny Granger, SF, IND (28.2, 40)- His owners must have loved Wednesday’s game
5. Ricky Rubio, PG, MIN (102.3, 15)- Dunno where to start; 42.6 MPG last 12 is amazing
6. Jrue Holiday, PG, PHI (37.7, 33)- One of the safest non-elite PGs to own with consistency
7. Marcin Gortat, C, PHO (56.9, 28)- Mess in Phoenix, but Polish Hammer is crushing it
8. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL (14.3, 70)- Dirk’s knees starting to take a turn for the worse
9. Gerald Wallace, SF/PF, POR (39.7, 49)- Home/road splits troubling
10. JaVale McGee, C, WSH (58.3, 41)- His mom thinks he’s a 1st-round pick
11. Roy Hibbert, C, IND (75.1, 37)- RPG (9.8) and FG% (52.5) main reasons for breakout
12. James Harden, SG, OKC (69.9, 32)- 1.6 3PM & work at the charity stripe making him valuable
Some serious slippage in this round. Injury concerns and productivity explain why Amare made it all the way into the fourth round. As for Dirk, he had some knee trouble last year and he’s days of playing in almost every game might be a thing of the past. Seven-foot players have a tough time staying on the court. Obviously, the fourth round is a great pick. All of these picks seemed to be very solid and I’m totally OK with Rubio going at 41.
1. Mike Conley, PG, MEM (73.0, 31)- 37.0 MPG and 47FG% in last 10 games
2. DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, SAC (55.3, 59) -33FG% with Westphal, 48FG% with Smart
3. Jarrett Jack, PG/SG, NO (98.3, 36)- Knee injury figures to be minor
4. Serge Ibaka, C/PF, OKC (51.4, 58)-34 MPG in last 4 games? Is Brooks ill?
5. Andrea Bargnani, C/PF, TOR (52.6, 91)- Hard to believe he doesn’t have structural damage
6. Manu Ginobili, SG, SA (43.6, 220)- It’s looking like a Happy Valentine’s Day for his owners
7. Nene Hilario, C/PF, DEN (48.7, 87)- Hard to believe 53.5FG% is down 10.0% from last year
8. Kevin Garnett, PF, BOS (64.8, 45)- Bar fight!
9. Ray Allen, SG, BOS (55.1, 55)- Normally very durable, not so much this year
10. Tyson Chandler, C, NY (68.5, 17)- Remember when he missed 68 games 2 & 3 seasons ago?
11. Carlos Boozer, PF, CHI (66.4, 39)- He’s staying healthy
12. Tony Parker, PG, SA (66.9, 44)- He hasn’t been arena popped yet
I couldn’t resist grabbing Serge Ibaka following his 10-block outing on Wednesday. My other pick in this round was Nene and it was between him and Chandler for me; it didn’t take Levitan long to snatch him up three picks behind me. Malewig and Bruski grabbed the first hurt players by taking Bargnani and Manu, respectively. It seemed about 15 picks too early to me with so much talent out there. They're obviously not terrible picks since Manu has gone on month-long stretches with top-10 value. As for Bargnani, who has any idea how long a calf injury with no structural damage can keep him out.
2. Kyrie Irving, PG, CLE (61.7, 26)- 25.3 PPG in last 3
3. DeAndre Jordan, C, LAC (80.8, 68)- 7th best for FG%, 7th worst for FT%
4. Joakim Noah, C/PF, CHI (34.3, 60)- No Deng has really help his value
5. Jason Terry, SG, DAL (77.1, 23)- It’s been a good year for sixth men
7. Jeff Teague, PG, ATL (112.3, 29)- Owners should not worry about Hinrich
8. Kris Humphries, PF, NJ (89.6, 61)- Brook should only hurt PPG (13.1) not RPG (10.4)
9. Samuel Dalembert, C, HOU (115, 24)- McHale was cured of Scott Brooks Syndrome
10. Kemba Walker, PG, CHA (97.1, 99)- The worst player for FG% right now
11. Anderson Varejao, PF/C, CLE (101.5, 71)- Leads the league in ORB and 4th in total boards
12. Jose Calderon, PG, TOR (88.9, 42)- The trade rumors really hurt his long-term value
I thought Kyrie Irving was the steal of the draft. He’s going to be a stud as long as his foot injury doesn’t pop up at some point. I’ll be the first to admit I reached a little bit on Collison. Maybe I’m blowing the 20-6-9 line from Wednesday out of proportion even though he should get huge minutes with George Hill out with an ankle fracture. There were a lot of point guards in the round with five coming off the board. All of them seemed pretty solid and have decent upside. Kemba especially with his entire team out of commission.
1. Marcus Thornton, SG, SAC (93.0, 217)- Hopefully the thigh injury doesn’t pop up again
2. Raymond Felton, PG, POR (49.0, 85)- 36.2FG% has really hurt his value
3. J.J. Redick, SG, ORL (116.1, 75)- He’s actually 3rd-most helpful in FT% the last 30 days
4. Drew Gooden, PF, MIL (140+, 142)- He’ll make a run for add of the year in deep leagues
5. Tim Duncan, PF/C, SA (66.9, 74)- The random DNPs will drive owners nuts
6. Paul George, SF/SG, IND (113.1, 43)- Helps at least a little in every category; he’s special
7. Brook Lopez, C, NJ (93.3, NA)- He’s back to running and might be a couple weeks out
8. Dorell Wright, SF, GS (46.3, 110)- Rush and Thompson always seem to be lurking
9. Michael Beasley, SF/PF, MIN (73.0, 254)- Don’t let 21-min dud on Wednesday discourage you
10. Anthony Morrow, SG/SF, NJ (117.0, 66)- He should tear it up with Brooks on the mend
11. Spencer Hawes, C, PHI (140+, 135)- Achilles tendonitis is arguably worst place to get it
12. Caron Butler, SF, LAC (96.8, 109)- At least his late scratch Wednesday wasn’t knee related
Marcus Thornton debuted with 20 points tonight and he looked extremely impressive (make sure he’s owned). I was probably the guilty of reaching a little bit by grabbing Drew Gooden. No other 17-9 threats are really on the board and I am anti-Pop. Duncan went right behind Gooden and it was a good value pick by Malewig. I was really curious to see where Dorell Wright was going to be taken and McKitish wouldn’t let him go past 83. Good value there. Bruski took my homeboy Paul George right in front of me and I had to just take a chance on Brook Lopez. Not a bad consolation prize.
1. Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, POR (72.3, 64)- His ankle hasn’t really been an issue
2. Elton Brand, PF, PHI (80.6, 56)- Could Lavoy Allen take minutes from him?
3. Antawn Jamison, PF, CLE (91.5, 107)- The expiring contract might be his fantasy undoing
5. Chauncey Billups, PG/SG, LAC (68.3, 104)- A player worth trading since LAC is so fun to watch
6. Brandon Knight, PG/SG, DET (113.7, 88)- Not too shabby 36 3P% in January
7. Hedo Turkoglu, SF, ORL (115.6, 79)- He’s boring, but he produces
8. Shawn Marion, SF/PF, DAL (109.1, 57)- Get ready for the value to fall off soon
9. James Johnson, SF, TOR (140+, 103)- No matter the rotation, he should be a constant
10. Tyrus Thomas, PF, CHA (120.6, 158)- That game with 9 bk and 4 stl was ridiculous
11. Eric Gordon, SG, NO (24.5, 341)- It feels like NO is hiding something
12. Luis Scola, PF, HOU (65.1, 125)- He’s not doing anything besides scoring and boarding
Another guy I was really curious about was good ol’ E.J. "Bruised Knee" Gordon. At 95 there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that and I was very close to taking him over James Johnson. I was really happy to grab Brandon Knight at this spot. This was one of the most boring rounds of the draft.
1. Al Harrington, PF, DEN (140+, 48)- Thursday's game should be a fluke
2. Lou Williams, PG/SG, PHI (119.7, 82)- Too many bench guys for him to be considered a stud
3. Carlos Delfino , SG/SF, MIL (122.1, 133)- Double-digit points in last 2
4. Zach Randolph, PF, MEM (27.0, 340)- March 1st, kids.. Hopefully
5. Ramon Sessions, PG, CLE (140+, 175)- The LAL rumors make him fun, not much upside
7. O.J. Mayo, SG, MEM (113.2, 92)- He was running the point a little on Wednesday
8. Nicolas Batum, SF, POR (99.7, 77)- Hopes to play on Saturday
9. D.J. Augustin, PG, CHA (109.4, 105)- Owners have to wait for him
10. Rodrigue Beaubois, PG/SG, DAL (140+, 108)- Gotta love a guard with 2.2 BPG in last 5
11. Jared Dudley, SF/SG, PHO (120.3, 101)- Picking it up lately: 35.3 MPG and 17.7 PPG in last 3
12. Mario Chalmers, PG, MIA (140+, 30)- SELL! SELL! SELL!
McKitish kicked off the round with a great pick of Al Harrington. Maybe the sub-par game on Thursday made him slide a little bit further than I expected. David West really slid pretty far down and I’m not so sure we can call him a buy-low guy.The Ramon Sessions pick was a little weird since he doesn’t really figure to have too much upside in LA. I was a little surprised to see Roddy Buckets go before Jason Kidd, but I did think it was a good pick by Neil Tardy.
1. Thaddeus Young, SF, PHI (80, 116.1)- He’d be a stud on another team
2. Andre Miller, PG, DEN (115.0, 53)- 11th in assists off the bench (7.2) is pretty impressive
3. Channing Frye, PF/C, PHO (83.4, 138)- Wednesday’s line was encouraging: 16-7-2
4. Jamal Crawford, SG/PG, POR (97.6, 76)- Has a nice little role off the bench in just 24.5 MPG
5. Iman Shumpert, PG, NY (140+, 118)- He’s 3rd in SPG and has value
6. Boris Diaw, PF/SF/C, CHA (108.3, 102)- Doris Biaw’s plastic surgeon did a nice job on upper body
8. Landry Fields, SG, NYK- (116.4, 98)-Double-digit points in 8 of last 9
10. DeMar DeRozan, SG, TOR (76.5, 147)- Started so hot, yet his value is currently frozen solid
11. Emeka Okafor, C, NO (95.3, 123)- Who the heck is his frontcourt mate going to be?
12. Nick Young, SG, WSH (91.9, 78)- Should have no problem holding value with 30 MPG
Shumpert played 39 minutes on Thursday and anyone that cut him might feel pretty bad right now. There were a lot of guards coming off the board in the round and most of them were fairly safe with the exception of me rolling the dice on Devin Harris. I already don’t like that pick.
1. Tiago Splitter, PF, SA (140+, 89)- Most valuable player for FG in last 15 days
2. Gerald Henderson, SG, CHA (140+, 113)- Charlotte needs some better hamstring conditioning
3. Jason Kidd, PG, DAL (57.2, 171)- Age catching up to him finally?
4. Jerryd Bayless, PG/SG, TOR (140+, 273)- He can’t defend, but Calderon rumors make him valuable
5. Marcus Camby, C/PF, POR (115.6, 111)- When he’s playing, he’s well worth owning
6. Trevor Ariza, SF/SG, NO (116.4, 194)- He’s been a wreck, but 34 MPG since return
7. Stephen Jackson, SG/SF, MIL (52.7, 119)- Skiles had a "good conversation" with him
8. Brandon Bass, PF, BOS (140+, 122)-10+ points in 9 last nine games
10. Greivis Vasquez (140+, 128)- Kind of surprising he’s 128th-best and good things on the way
11. Evan Turner, SG, PHI (115.0, 150)- Depth is his undoing, shedding bust label though
12. Marvin Williams, SF, ATL (140+, 129)- The 3PM barrage has been nice
I took a couple gambles in this round by taking Stephen Jackson and Jerryd Bayless. Both of them kind of need some trades to get their value going again. Levitan had the most controversial pick to me again by taking my man Greivis Vasquez. I liked the pick a lot and I was hopeful he’d be there in the 12th.
1. Trevor Booker, PF, WAS (140+, 124)- Double-double machine with D; 25+ MPG will be solid enough
2. Chris Kaman, C, NOR (88.6, 153)- Not enough upside to stash
3. Jason Smith, PF, NOR (140+, 176)- Ayon playing too well off bench to run away with PF
4. Ed Davis, PF, TOR (106.0, 132)- Special Ed getting an education in the paint
5. Brendan Haywood, C, DAL (140+, 189)- Back flaring up means it’s Mahinmi time
6.Gordon Hayward, SF, UTA (140+, 145)- 21 points in 2 of last 4 games; a lot to like
7. MarShon Brooks, SG, NJ (140+, 112)- Some reports have him out for just a few weeks
8. Amir Johnson, PF/C, TOR (121.6, 114)- Reverting back to his old D-League days
9. Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, DET (100.4, 131)- Plays so aggressively that injuries are inevitable
10. Reggie Williams (140+, NA)- He’s not really NA, but he probably won’t be in a game or 2
11. Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL (88.7, 191)- Jaw injury was almost a blessing in disguise for owners
12. Byron Mullens, C, CHA (140+, 120)- The NBA is starting to figure it out
I though the best pick of this round was Trevor Booker going to Neil Tardy. Booker is going to put up some big numbers while Andray Blatche rests his calf. It’s kind of funny how nine of the players in this round are on terrible teams.
1. Arron Afflalo, SG, DEN (116.3, 186)-Uptick in minutes could be cause for some health issues
2. C.J. Miles, SF/SG, UTAH (121.0, 192)- Not getting minutes starting to catch up with him.. Again
3. Nikola Pekovic, C, MIN (140+, 240)- He did enough with Darko down to earn role
4. Ersan Ilyasova, PF, MIL (140+, 159)- The Turkish Roller Coaster leveling off a bit
5. Baron Davis, PG, NY (116.3, NA)- Herniated DISK still not healed
6. Derrick Favors, PF, UTA (116.4, 168)- Al Jefferson’s ankle tendonitis gives him value
7. Courtney Lee, SG, HOU (140+, 187)- Parsons losing steam and Lee has size to play SF
9. Kyle Korver, SG/SF, CHI (140+, 143)- Another useful game on Thursday with 16 points and 3 3PM
10. Richard Jefferson, SF, SA (140+, 97)- The Manu return should scare owners a little
11. Luke Ridnour, PG/SG, MIN (140+, 69)- Still logging minutes with Rubio wylin’ out
12. Rudy Fernandez, SG, DEN (140+, 140)- Achilles and depth will limit his upside
B-Diddy comes off the board here and it makes sense to some degree since point guards have been flying off the board. Although I would have preferred Luke Ridnour based on the format. I like the Favors pick a little because it has the highest upside of any pick in this round. Of course I took The Turkish Roller Coaster with one of my picks.
1. J.R. Smith, SG, DEN (140+, NA)- Happy Chinese New Year
2. Jason Richardson, SG, ORL (86.5, 214)- Seems like so long ago that he was a fantastic dunker
3. Kenyon Martin, PF, DEN (140+, NA)- I wonder if he has any new tattoos
4. Markieff Morris, PF, PHX (140+, 152)- Only 17.2 MPG in last 5 games
5. Lamar Odom, PF, DAL (83.3, 272)- (Insert joke here)
6. Austin Daye, SF/PF, DET (140+, 250)- That goose egg on Wednesday is a big buzz kill
7. DeJuan Blair, C/PF, SA (118.3, 121)- Splitter is Brazilian waxing his value these days
8.Shawne Williams, SF, NJN (140+, 288)- Had great matchup on Wednesday vs. DET
9. Rashard Lewis, SF/PF, WAS (114.3, 166)- Flip leaving could turn his season around
10. Chuck Hayes, PF/C, SAC (140+, 299)- 29 minutes on Thursday is a great sign
11. Andray Blatche, PF, WSH (54.9, 205)- Maybe he should have hired an agent
12. Jordan Crawford, SG WSH (119.2,174)- Imagine who great he’d be sans Nick Young
It’s lottery-ticket time. Kenyon Martin needs the stars to align a bit to make an impact and hopefully he goes to the Hawks to get the most value. I took a couple high upside guys in Rashard Lewis coming off a big game and Austin Daye even though he fell off a cliff in his last game. I thought the Chuck Hayes pick was a good pick as well.
Thanks for reading! You can send your questions or comments to me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher