ESPN's Adam Rubin on Mets Moving Fences In

Adam Rubin on the Mets moving in their fences in 2012:

When ESPN did study of effect of Citi Field wall changes by plotting last 3 years, it determined #Mets would hit 27 more HRs--1 per series.

We may want to temper our power projections for some of the Mets power hitters a bit as a result.

3 months ago Ray Guilfoyle 6 comments 0 recs |

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This is a great little info nugget

But I think the thing to bear in mind is that nobody is expecting Mets power numbers to increase across the board, there is more likely to be a spike among certain players, so that 27 HR increase will be, on the majority, distributed among 5-6 players, likely David Wright, Jason Bay, and other right-handed batters. I’m actually going to check out Met hit charts for last year and see who had the most left-field warning-track shots that might clear the new fences.

by pooptallica on Feb 23, 2012 9:28 AM EST reply actions

Interesting

OK, so, according to this BIP location app (which I am LOVING, btw): http://katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/

David Wright may not be significantly affected at all. I’m looking at a MAXIMUM of 4 shots from last year that might clear this year’s fence. Maybe a few more, it’s difficult to tell how accurate the scale is on this tool, but still, not a ton of close-but-no-cigar shots to left for D Wright.

Jason Bay, however, may benefit a bit more, I’m seeing 5 to possibly 6 for him, though he appears to actually be less of a pull hitter than Wright.

I also just read, not realizing before, that right-center is being moved in, as well. This could help Ike Davis, as all of his HRs at Citi last year went to center or right. Lucas Duda, actually, hit well to all fields last year, and could see a 4-5 HR bump even though he bats lefty. Scott Hairston might also see a bump of around 3.

This BIP chart tool is my new favorite thing. I may play with it all day. You can actually plot balls in play from a batter at a certain stadium, and overlay them over any other stadium, including the Tokyo Dome, and several now-defunct MLB stadiums, to see park effects.

by pooptallica on Feb 23, 2012 9:51 AM EST up reply actions

tremendous

I remember finding that site a few months ago when they initially announced moving the fences in……thanks for the research.
The other issue is how it will affect Met starters…..but if I remember correctly, the Mets have a few decent GB pitchers…Niese is one.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 23, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

Niese may subconsciously shift to an extreme fly ball pitcher

To protect his new nose, and all. Don’t want a hot grounder bouncing up and ruining that beautiful work. ;)

by pooptallica on Feb 23, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

ha!

he’ll be flinching a lot on grounder up the middle.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 23, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions

Ugh

Just realized I didn’t really take into account the injuries to Wright and Davis last year. If you plot for 2010, the results are a bit different, and Wright looks to have a bit more to gain, as does Bay, actually.

Regardless, new favorite baseball nerd toy.

by pooptallica on Feb 23, 2012 10:04 AM EST reply actions