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Around SBN: Full Coverage of 2012 Coke 600

Mark Teixeira

No one wants to click the glowing green draft button on a guy with a .248 avg.

Well if no one wants him then you do. Here is the ADP of 1B according to MDC

PlayerPosTeamADPEarliestLatestDraft %
1 (2) Miguel Cabrera 1B DET 2.53 1 6 100.0%
2 (3) Albert Pujols 1B ANA 2.88 1 7 100.0%
3 (9) Joey Votto 1B CIN 9.28 3 17 100.0%
4 (10) Adrian Gonzalez 1B BOS 9.45 2 21 100.0%
5 (14) Prince Fielder 1B DET 14.33 4 22 100.0%
6 (27) Mark Teixeira 1B NYY 27.17 15 40 100.0%
7 (46) Paul Konerko 1B,DH CHW 48.26 31 68 100.0%
8 (52) Eric Hosmer 1B KC 53.05 24 76 100.0%
9 (79) Mike Morse 1B WAS 80.28 37 116 100.0%
10 (119) Freddie Freeman 1B ATL 121.34

Top four first basemen will likely be drafted in the first round leaving Prince in the second. A round later Teixeira should come off the board leaving a gaping hole between him and old man Paul Konerko who's age and lack of runs set him back. Teixeira holds top 15 value in the third round. Why?

Teixeira's 39 HR in 2011 were the most of all first basemen. Granted, Albert Pujols was out for a while but Tex will hit 35+ this year.

Also. Teixeira plays on the Yankees who look to be a stronger than usual contender this season which should provide 100 if not 110+ runs and RBIs which puts among Pujols and Cabrera.

The only flaw, his scary batting average. .248 last season is going to scare off some owners. However, Tex has a career average of .281

Here are Teixeira's averages since his debut in 2003:

2003 .259

2004 .281

2005 .301

2006 .282

2007 .306

2008 .308

2009 .292

2010 .256

2011 .248

Keep these numbers in your mind while I tell you 3 key useless seeming facts.

1. From 2009 on, Tex has played in pinstripes, when the new Yankee Stadium opened, he joined the team for their championship run.

2. Tex is a switch hitter (not really that useless)

3. Yankee Stadium is a power hitting lefty haven

Almost 70% of his AB are Left-handed but his average from the left side of the plate was only .251 in the last three years. His average from the right side was .299.

In the last two years Tex has been below .500 in slugging for the first time since his rookie season 2003.

Now don't be thrown off by his 77 HR left-handed to 34 right-handed since 2009, 77HR/1247AB=6.16% and 34HR/552AB=6.15% meaning that he hits roughly the same amount of HR to AB on either side of the plate, so HR are not the issue. The average is.

From the left side Tex keeps trying to take advantage of the short porch in right rather than looking for a ball to drive into the gap for a double or make contact for a single. All he is thinking about is a HR. In fact, Teixeira has had back to back to back career lows in GB/FB in his three years as a Yankee.

The numbers are there, but the problem is mental.

Tex has realized that the right field wall has tantalized him while in the lefty box and is trying to make a change.

I say the change will happen. My Tex projection: 111 R 37 HR 123 RBI .307 AVG

Looking back, thats too bold how about: 104 R 36 HR 113 RBI .292

Poll
Do you believe Mark Teixeira will solve his problems and raise his average?
Yes
27 votes
No
13 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 6 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Hmmmm

Couple of things that are pretty interesting here:

1. Teix is now entering his age 32 season, as his birthday is early April.
2. He’s on a three year down trend in terms of his OPS, and last year he had a good, not great, .239/.341/.494 triple slash line. That puts him squarely between Ryan Howard and Kevin Youkilis in terms of numbers.
3. His WAR number from 2011 was a pretty meager 2.4, which was down from 4.1 in 2010, which was down from 5.5 in 2009. Again, not that he is in danger of losing his position, but my point in mentioning his WAR is that a pattern seems to be emerging here.
4. Lastly, you have the comps baseball-reference.com puts on him. Mo Vaughn, Richie Sexson, and David Justice are guys who have SIM SCORES that look awfully close to Teix’s career path. That is why I would be avoiding him, all things considered, in 2012.

by thomasps3 on Feb 22, 2012 9:49 PM EST reply actions  

true

but the three year down turn is what i was looking for. His left-handed approach at the plate in yankee stadium is affecting all of his numbers that you bring up,

by glendawg on Feb 23, 2012 7:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Wow

You’re predicting an MVP-caliber season with those numbers.

by pooptallica on Feb 23, 2012 8:22 AM EST reply actions  

Raise in average, yes.

The projections you give at the bottom, no way. Two years of depressed BABIP is more of a trend than one fluke year. I give him a chance at .280 but not much higher. He can maintain a mid to high 30s in HR, but your R and RBI are a bit high, and I’d probably knock 10 off of each.

www.rotomanagers.com

by varrys on Feb 23, 2012 11:00 AM EST reply actions  

your right

looking back it does seem that those numbers are too high

by glendawg on Feb 23, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Read the same thing on Teix. The short right field porch changed his approach. If Dave Ortiz can rebound, so can Teix

by faketeams on Feb 24, 2012 11:58 AM EST reply actions  

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