2012 Fantasy Baseball H2H Points League Strategy: CBS Expert Draft Analysis

Last week Scott White and various other fantasy baseball writers and experts from CBS Sportsline participated in a 12-team H2H mock draft. If you’re interested in reading the article in its entirety, it can be found here.

I thought it might be interesting to compare some of the results of the CBS Sportsline expert mock draft with the most recent ADP report from Mock Draft Central (MDC) in order to illustrate just how different some players are valued in H2H points league scoring as compared to standard roto formats.

Therefore, I’ve provided the first 100 selections from that draft as well as the first 100 players in the most recent ADP report. See the spreadsheet below followed by my observations:

Pick # CBS Expert H2H Mock Draft Mock Draft Central ADP
1 Miguel Cabrera 1B, DET Matt Kemp OF, LAD
2 Roy Halladay SP, PHI Miguel Cabrera 1B, DET
3 Albert Pujols 1B, ANA Albert Pujols 1B, ANA
4 Jose Bautista 3B/OF, TOR Jose Bautista 3B/OF, TOR
5 Troy Tulowitzki SS, COL Troy Tulowitzki SS, COL
6 Matt Kemp OF, LAD Justin Verlander SP, DET
7 Joey Votto 1B, CIN Jacoby Ellsbury OF, BOS
8 Jacoby Ellsbury OF, BOS Justin Upton OF, ARZ
9 Adrian Gonzalez 1B, BOS Joey Votto 1B, CIN
10 Dustin Pedroia 2B, BOS Adrian Gonzalez 1B, BOS
11 Robinson Cano 2B, NYY Robinson Cano 2B, NYY
12 Justin Verlander SP, DET Evan Longoria 3B, TB
13 Prince Fielder 1B, DET Carlos Gonzalez OF, COL
14 Clayton Kershaw SP, LAD Prince Fielder 1B, DET
15 Curtis Granderson OF, NYY Roy Halladay SP, PHI
16 Cliff Lee SP, PHI Clayton Kershaw SP, LAD
17 Evan Longoria 3B, TB Dustin Pedroia 2B, BOS
18 Ian Kinsler 2B, TEX Curtis Granderson OF, NYY
19 Mark Teixeira 1B, NYY Hanley Ramirez SS, MIA
20 Carlos Santana C/1B, CLE Jose Reyes SS, MIA
21 Carlos Gonzalez OF, COL Cliff Lee SP, PHI
22 CC Sabathia SP, NYY Mike Stanton OF, MIA
23 Justin Upton OF, ARZ Ian Kinsler 2B, TEX
24 Felix Hernandez SP, SEA Tim Lincecum SP, SF
25 Jered Weaver SP, ANA Andrew McCutchen OF, PIT
26 Andrew McCutchen OF, PIT Felix Hernandez SP, SEA
27 Jose Reyes SS, MIA Mark Teixeira 1B, NYY
28 Cole Hamels SP, PHI Ryan Braun OF, MIL
29 Matt Holliday OF, STL CC Sabathia SP, NYY
30 Hanley Ramirez SS, MIA Adrian Beltre 3B, TEX
31 Tim Lincecum SP, SF Cole Hamels SP, PHI
32 Zack Greinke SP, MIL Josh Hamilton OF, TEX
33 Dan Haren SP, ANA David Wright 3B, NYM
34 David Price SP, TB Jered Weaver SP, ANA
35 David Wright 3B, NYM Carlos Santana C/1B, CLE
36 Adrian Beltre 3B, TEX Matt Holliday OF, STL
37 Starlin Castro SS, CHC David Price SP, TB
38 Mike Stanton OF, MIA Carl Crawford OF, BOS
39 Yovani Gallardo SP, MIL Jay Bruce OF, CIN
40 Josh Hamilton OF, TEX Starlin Castro SS, CHC
41 Paul Konerko 1B, CWS Ryan Zimmerman 3B, WAS
42 Shane Victorino OF, PHI Dan Haren SP, ANA
43 Ian Kennedy SP, ARZ Elvis Andrus SS, TEX
44 Ben Zobrist 2B/OF, TB Hunter Pence OF, PHI
45 Jon Lester SP, BOS Mike Napoli C/1B, TEX
46 Ryan Zimmerman 3B, WAS Paul Konerko 1B, CWS
47 James Shields SP, TB Nelson Cruz OF, TEX
48 Jay Bruce OF, CIN Zack Greinke SP, MIL
49 Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B, BOS Yovani Gallardo SP, MIL
50 Billy Butler 1B, KC Brian McCann C, ATL
51 Desmond Jennings OF, TB Jon Lester SP, BOS
52 Eric Hosmer 1B, KC Eric Hosmer 1B, KC
53 Brett Lawrie 3B, TOR Dan Uggla 2B, ATL
54 Ricky Romero SP, TOR Brett Lawrie 3B, TOR
55 Alex Rodriguez 3B, NYY Michael Bourn OF, ATL
56 Michael Young 1B/2B/3B, TEX Desmond Jennings OF, TB
57 Alex Gordon OF, KC Craig Kimbrel RP, ATL
58 Lance Berkman 1B/OF, STL Buster Posey C, SF
59 Nick Markakis OF, BAL Alex Rodriguez 3B, NYY
60 Shin-Soo Choo OF, CLE Matt Cain SP, SF
61 Matt Cain SP, SF Brandon Phillips 2B, CIN
62 Hunter Pence OF, PHI Alex Gordon OF, KC
63 Aramis Ramirez 3B, MIL Stephen Strasburg SP, WAS
64 Brandon Phillips 2B, CIN Shin-Soo Choo OF, CLE
65 Josh Johnson SP, MIA BJ Upton OF, TB
66 Ryan Braun OF, MIL James Shields SP, TB
67 Michael Morse 1B/OF, WAS Aramis Ramirez 3B, MIL
68 CJ Wilson SP, ANA Ian Kennedy SP, ARZ
69 Rickie Weeks 2B, MIL Pablo Sandoval 1B/3B, SF
70 Michael Pineda SP, NYY Mat Latos SP, CIN
71 Matt Garza SP, CHC Michael Young 1B/2B/3B, TEX
72 Andre Ethier OF, LAD Asdrubal Cabrera SS, CLE
73 Chris Young OF, ARZ Shane Victorino OF, PHI
74 Dustin Ackley 2B, SEA Adam Jones OF, BAL
75 Nelson Cruz OF, TEX Madison Bumgarner SP, SF
76 Adam Wainwright SP, STL Chase Utley 2B, PHI
77 Madison Bumgarner SP, SF Rickie Weeks 2B, MIL
78 Dan Uggla 2B, ATL Joe Mauer C/1B, MIN
79 Carl Crawford OF, BOS Michael Morse 1B/OF, WAS
80 Jimmy Rollins SS, PHI Ben Zobrist 2B/OF, TB
81 Asdrubal Cabrera SS, CLE Drew Stubbs OF, CIN
82 BJ Upton OF, TB Drew Storen RP, WAS
83 David Ortiz DH, BOS Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B, BOS
84 Dan Hudson SP, ARZ Dan Hudson SP, ARZ
85 Corey Hart OF, MIL CJ Wilson SP, ANA
86 Ervin Santana SP, ANA Ricky Romero SP, TOR
87 Elvis Andrus SS, TEX Jimmy Rollins SS, PHI
88 Alex Avila C, DET John Axford RP, MIL
89 Stephen Strasburg SP, WAS Corey Hart OF, MIL
90 Mat Latos SP, CIN Josh Beckett SP, BOS
91 Brian McCann C, ATL Lance Berkman 1B/OF, STL
92 Logan Morrison OF, MIA Tommy Hanson SP, ATL
93 Mike Napoli C/1B, TEX Brett Gardner OF, NYY
94 Chris Carpenter SP, STL Michael Cuddyer 1B/2B/OF, COL
95 Josh Beckett SP, BOS Matt Wieters C, BAL
96 Howie Kendrick 1B/2B/OF, ANA Michael Pineda SP, NYY
97 Martin Prado 3B/OF, ATL Mariano Rivera RP, NYY
98 Pablo Sandoval 1B/3B, SF Josh Johnson SP, MIA
99 Gio Gonzalez SP, WAS Jayson Werth OF, WAS
100 Nick Swisher OF, NYY Jonathan Papelbon RP, PHI

Observations:

Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki and Robinson Cano were valued equally across both CBS and MDC, meaning there's little difference at the top regardless of the scoring format. In fact, of the first 12 players for both, 10 were the same, with Justin Verlander being the only SP to appear in both.

There were 31 SP selected in the CBS draft as opposed to 27 in the MDC report. However, there was not a single RP selected in the CBS draft whereas four appeared in the MDC report. This tells me that SV are of little value in the scoring format they were drafting for. It's important to know your league's scoring format verbatim in order to know where to find value in the draft and what positions you can avoid.

There were 17 players from CBS that didn't appear in the MDC report. Perhaps the most notable being Billy Butler who found himself in the Top 50 in the CBS draft. Butler has outscored first basemen such as Lance Berkman and Ryan Howard over the course of the last three seasons.

Nick Markakis was another such player that didn't appear in the MDC report. Markakis has outscored outfielders such as Justin Upton and Hunter Pence over the last three seasons.

David Ortiz does not appear on the MDC report, but was drafted 83rd on CBS. It leaves little flexibility in your lineup to roster Ortiz as he only qualifies for DH, however, in 2011 he outscored premiere hitters such as Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez, Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria and Mark Teixeira.

Ervin Santana was selected 86th overall in the CBS draft but does not make the Top 100 ADP for MDC. If you read my thoughts on Santana in my Top 50 SP then you won't want to forget him come draft day.

Carlos Santana was the first C to be selected in both. However, he was drafted 20th overall on CBS as compared to a 35 ADP on MDC. Catchers such as Santana, Mauer and Napoli that qualify at multiple positions or find themselves in the lineup almost every day are much more valuable in H2H formats as their increase in ABs can gain an edge over your opponent.

CBS experts played it much safer with drafting Ryan Braun at 66 compared to 28 on MDC. If you can weather the 50 game suspension and still make your H2H league playoffs, Braun could be a pivotal piece to a championship run in September for the cost of a 5th Rd. selection or later.

As should be the case, Mike Stanton was drafted much later on the CBS draft than on the MDC report, however, not late enough. Assuming the scoring format for CBS penalizes for strikeouts, the 38th selection is for too early for Stanton as 30 outfielders outscored him in 2011. At the time he had been selected, only 8 OF had been drafted - Jose Bautista, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Andrew McCutchen, Justin Upton and Matt Holliday, Simply put, there is a 0.01% chance Stanton will be the 9th highest scoring OF in 2012.

I have no possible explanation for why someone on the CBS draft selected Dustin Ackley 73rd overall. I imagine Ackley to be a much better MLB player than fantasy player in his career as he offers little opportunity for points with his limited power, surrounding lineup and home stadium.

Share your thoughts on this post, the CBS mock draft or any other fantasy baseball H2H questions in the comments below.

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