Fantasy Baseball 2012: Early ADP - 1B

by smokeymcpots on Feb 2, 2012 11:00 AM EST in 2012 Fantasy Baseball Position Rankings

So continuing on with our look at the early draft trends over at Mock Draft Central we journey on to 1B. Nothing about these early trends are jumping out to me yet. First base should be your fantasy stalwart in the HR and RBI categories and as such, players are drafted that way. I will have my analysis after the chart, and who knows, there may be punch and pie there also.

Player	Pos	Team	ADP	Earliest	Latest	Draft %

1 (2)	Albert Pujols	1B	ANA	2.68	1	25	100.0%
2 (3)	Miguel Cabrera	1B	DET	2.86	1	96	100.0%
3 (9)	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	BOS	9.53	3	93	100.0%
4 (10)	Joey Votto	1B	CIN	9.59	4	43	100.0%
5 (14)	Prince Fielder	1B	DET	14.45	5	177	100.0%
6 (27)	Mark Teixeira	1B	NYY	27.33	13	328	100.0%
7 (46)	Paul Konerko	1B,DH	CHW	48.58	22	334	100.0%
8 (52)	Eric Hosmer	1B	KC	51.71	25	84	100.0%
9 (77)	Mike Morse	1B	WAS	78.53	35	109	100.0%
10 (118)	Freddie Freeman	1B	ATL	121.66	52	161	100.0%
11 (138)	Mark Trumbo	1B	ANA	142.70	78	223	100.0%
12 (141)	Ryan Howard	1B	PHI	144.64	45	-ND-	99.2%
13 (143)	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	ARI	146.93	92	200	100.0%
14 (148)	Adam Lind	1B	TOR	150.13	92	212	100.0%
15 (160)	Justin Morneau	1B	MIN	162.46	111	-ND-	99.3%
16 (177)	Ike Davis	1B	NYM	178.65	90	-ND-	99.2%
17 (198)	Gaby Sanchez	1B	MIA	198.15	129	-ND-	95.4%
18 (224)	Todd Helton	1B	COL	218.10	202	-ND-	8.9%
19 (230)	Justin Smoak	1B	SEA	220.53	152	-ND-	13.7%
20 (232)	Carlos Pena	1B	TB	220.67	113	-ND-	81.3%
21 (234)	Kendrys Morales	1B	ANA	221.12	110	-ND-	80.0%
22 (248)	James Loney	1B	LA	224.50	215	-ND-	14.6%
23 (299)	Derrek Lee	1B	FA	230.60	224	-ND-	29.8%
24 (307)	Daniel Murphy	1B,2B,3B	NYM	231.14	121	-ND-	77.4%
25 (323)	Mike Carp	1B	SEA	233.68	226	-ND-	6.8%
26 (330)	Mitch Moreland	1B	TEX	235.09	172	-ND-	57.2%
27 (373)	Jesus Guzman	1B	SD	263.67	255	-ND-	3.7%
28 (378)	Aubrey Huff	1B	SF	266.77	258	-ND-	21.8%
29 (384)	Adam LaRoche	1B	WAS	268.84	260	-ND-	8.3%
30 (392)	Anthony Rizzo	1B	CHC	279.18	270	-ND-	1.6%
31 (448)	Chris Davis	1B,3B	BAL	361.90	350	-ND-	1.1%
32 (466)	Dan Johnson	1B	FA	434.28	420	-ND-	1.3%

Listed As DH:

1 (70)

Michael Young

DH,1B,3B

TEX

71.19

465

100.0%

3 (119)

Billy Butler

123.28

-ND-

99.4%

7 (279)

Adam Dunn

DH,1B

CHW

228.39

128

-ND-

58.6%

8 (293)

Edwin Encarnacion

DH,1B,3B

TOR

229.51

127

-ND-

49.5%

Listed as OF:

25 (89)

Lance Berkman

OF,1B

STL

90.93

323

100.0%

27 (95)

Michael Cuddyer

OF,1B

COL

96.01

318

100.0%

46 (189)

Carlos Lee

OF,1B

HOU

190.40

133

-ND-

96.6%

52 (205)

Brandon Belt

OF,1B

206.73

138

-ND-

90.2%

73 (266)

Lucas Duda

OF,1B

NYM

226.85

156

-ND-

72.0%

Like the picture has it, I have M-Cab number one overall. Him adding 3B, will make next year's fantasy forecasters claim that 3B is deep- well duh.
On average it seems as though 4-5 1B are going in the first round. 1-2 more in the 2nd round. Basically logic is telling me that you can either take 1B in round 1 or you can then reach for the position later and get about 80% of the production as the top 6 first baseman.
Ok, let me say that I like Paulie K. I'm not in love with him especially since his ADP, the 4th round, seems to be a consolation prize for people who miss out on one of the top 6. They get that "oh snap" reflex and say "I need a first baseman, because its too early for Morse or aren't sold on Hosmer". Konerko will still give you the 30 HR's your looking for but the 300 avg from last year could easily become 270. So basically, he becomes Teixeira-lite with 30 less runs scored.
Mike Morse is my homeboy, whether he likes it or not. A 30 Hr guy that also has an OF eligibility in the 6th-7th round, I am cutting the line here to take him. Outfield (which we will get to next week) is modestly shallow. For the sake of comparison the 2 OF being drafted closest to him are Adam Jones and Drew Stubbs. I'd rather have the steals later in the draft, and pull a He-man, and say "I have the power".
I'm lumping the next group together regardless of what the trends say. Ike Davis, Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt are all that 80% group I was talking about. If it's a standard league I would rather have Ike and Freeman, Goldschmidt needs the OBP stat to make him look prettier. Can't go wrong though if you miss out on a 1B in RD1-2 as long as you're getting that HR guy there instead (Joey Bats and Stanton).
I wanna see more of Kendrys Morales and Ryan Howard to be anywhere close to sold on drafting them. Howard is reportedly going to miss the first month and I am passing already.
I would happily take Carlos Pena in the 18th or later rounds, but only if I don't already have an average killer on the roster. His 4yr avg numbers in TB: 237/ 36 Hr / 101 RBI / 83 Runs. Now I'm not saying he gets to any of those numbers, but as your second 1B or CI those are some pretty numbers minus the Avg.
From a deeper league view Daniel Murphy is a lottery ticket, who has multiple eligibility (1B, 3B, and 2B). If he can stay healthy and the Mets actually give him enough Ab's, he should be a decent end of draft gamble.

So my theory of drafting a 1B this year is either get one early or suffer with the 80% factor. Now that may play itself out if you get a huge bat somewhere's else in the first 2 rounds, but its hard to name more than 4 guys who will have better HR/RBI potential than the top 6 1B. So as always questions and comments are always welcome, and sorry I ate all the pie. Happy drafting.

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Comments

LaHair

No one’s feeling Bryan “The Hair” LaHair? A left-handed power hitter in Wrigley finally getting his shot? GM already said Rizzo is too raw.

by hifilofi on Feb 2, 2012 11:15 AM EST reply actions

LaHair

Agree he should be on the list of drafted guys, another one is Parmelee.

by smokeymcpots on Feb 2, 2012 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

Who should we consider the Sleepers here?

To me, Teix looks like one for sure. I think his counting stats should come pretty close to Fielder’s this year, who is drafted way ahead of him. People are overlooking the batting average differential.

Also, in what league was he drafted 328th? A Bizarro league?

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Feb 2, 2012 11:42 AM EST reply actions

Sleepers

Tex at the end of Rd2/3 is definitely good to great value.
Freeman after Rd 10 is a moderate investment.
I personal like the value that Pena is giving right now at Rd 18 and beyond.

by smokeymcpots on Feb 2, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

If Brandon Belt can come close to 500 AB's he will outperform half of this list

Let's go Giants!!! clap clap clap-clap-clap
Let's go Giants!!! clap clap clap-clap-clap
Let's go Giants!!! clap clap clap-clap-clap

by ViolentMike on Feb 2, 2012 12:19 PM EST reply actions

Bochy

Is in the same mindset of Dusty.

by smokeymcpots on Feb 2, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions

Tulo Tex combo platter

I have been participating in many mock drafts this winter. I have been taking different draft slots and seeing if I can get Tulo in round 1 followed by selecting Teixeira in round 2. I not only like the combo but it worked out more times than not. A strategy others might find useful come draft day.

by Fantasy Baseball Vision on Feb 2, 2012 12:30 PM EST reply actions