Fantasy Baseball 2012: Early ADP - 1B

So continuing on with our look at the early draft trends over at Mock Draft Central we journey on to 1B. Nothing about these early trends are jumping out to me yet. First base should be your fantasy stalwart in the HR and RBI categories and as such, players are drafted that way. I will have my analysis after the chart, and who knows, there may be punch and pie there also.

Pos Team ADP Earliest Latest Draft %
1 (2) Albert Pujols 1B ANA 2.68 1 25 100.0%
2 (3) Miguel Cabrera 1B DET 2.86 1 96 100.0%
3 (9) Adrian Gonzalez 1B BOS 9.53 3 93 100.0%
4 (10) Joey Votto 1B CIN 9.59 4 43 100.0%
5 (14) Prince Fielder 1B DET 14.45 5 177 100.0%
6 (27) Mark Teixeira 1B NYY 27.33 13 328 100.0%
7 (46) Paul Konerko 1B,DH CHW 48.58 22 334 100.0%
8 (52) Eric Hosmer 1B KC 51.71 25 84 100.0%
9 (77) Mike Morse 1B WAS 78.53 35 109 100.0%
10 (118) Freddie Freeman 1B ATL 121.66 52 161 100.0%
11 (138) Mark Trumbo 1B ANA 142.70 78 223 100.0%
12 (141) Ryan Howard 1B PHI 144.64 45 -ND- 99.2%
13 (143) Paul Goldschmidt 1B ARI 146.93 92 200 100.0%
14 (148) Adam Lind 1B TOR 150.13 92 212 100.0%
15 (160) Justin Morneau 1B MIN 162.46 111 -ND- 99.3%
16 (177) Ike Davis 1B NYM 178.65 90 -ND- 99.2%
17 (198) Gaby Sanchez 1B MIA 198.15 129 -ND- 95.4%
18 (224) Todd Helton 1B COL 218.10 202 -ND- 8.9%
19 (230) Justin Smoak 1B SEA 220.53 152 -ND- 13.7%
20 (232) Carlos Pena 1B TB 220.67 113 -ND- 81.3%
21 (234) Kendrys Morales 1B ANA 221.12 110 -ND- 80.0%
22 (248) James Loney 1B LA 224.50 215 -ND- 14.6%
23 (299) Derrek Lee 1B FA 230.60 224 -ND- 29.8%
24 (307) Daniel Murphy 1B,2B,3B NYM 231.14 121 -ND- 77.4%
25 (323) Mike Carp 1B SEA 233.68 226 -ND- 6.8%
26 (330) Mitch Moreland 1B TEX 235.09 172 -ND- 57.2%
27 (373) Jesus Guzman 1B SD 263.67 255 -ND- 3.7%
28 (378) Aubrey Huff 1B SF 266.77 258 -ND- 21.8%
29 (384) Adam LaRoche 1B WAS 268.84 260 -ND- 8.3%
30 (392) Anthony Rizzo 1B CHC 279.18 270 -ND- 1.6%
31 (448) Chris Davis 1B,3B BAL 361.90 350 -ND- 1.1%
32 (466) Dan Johnson 1B FA 434.28 420 -ND- 1.3%

Listed As DH:

1 (70) Michael Young DH,1B,3B TEX 71.19 30 465 100.0%
3 (119) Billy Butler DH KC 123.28 70 -ND- 99.4%

7 (279) Adam Dunn DH,1B CHW 228.39 128 -ND- 58.6%

8 (293) Edwin Encarnacion DH,1B,3B TOR 229.51 127 -ND- 49.5%
Listed as OF:
25 (89) Lance Berkman OF,1B STL 90.93 47 323


27 (95) Michael Cuddyer OF,1B COL 96.01 57 318 100.0%
46 (189) Carlos Lee OF,1B HOU 190.40 133 -ND- 96.6%
52 (205) Brandon Belt OF,1B SF 206.73 138 -ND- 90.2%
73 (266) Lucas Duda OF,1B NYM 226.85 156 -ND- 72.0%

  • Like the picture has it, I have M-Cab number one overall. Him adding 3B, will make next year's fantasy forecasters claim that 3B is deep- well duh.
  • On average it seems as though 4-5 1B are going in the first round. 1-2 more in the 2nd round. Basically logic is telling me that you can either take 1B in round 1 or you can then reach for the position later and get about 80% of the production as the top 6 first baseman.
  • Ok, let me say that I like Paulie K. I'm not in love with him especially since his ADP, the 4th round, seems to be a consolation prize for people who miss out on one of the top 6. They get that "oh snap" reflex and say "I need a first baseman, because its too early for Morse or aren't sold on Hosmer". Konerko will still give you the 30 HR's your looking for but the 300 avg from last year could easily become 270. So basically, he becomes Teixeira-lite with 30 less runs scored.
  • Mike Morse is my homeboy, whether he likes it or not. A 30 Hr guy that also has an OF eligibility in the 6th-7th round, I am cutting the line here to take him. Outfield (which we will get to next week) is modestly shallow. For the sake of comparison the 2 OF being drafted closest to him are Adam Jones and Drew Stubbs. I'd rather have the steals later in the draft, and pull a He-man, and say "I have the power".
  • I'm lumping the next group together regardless of what the trends say. Ike Davis, Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt are all that 80% group I was talking about. If it's a standard league I would rather have Ike and Freeman, Goldschmidt needs the OBP stat to make him look prettier. Can't go wrong though if you miss out on a 1B in RD1-2 as long as you're getting that HR guy there instead (Joey Bats and Stanton).
  • I wanna see more of Kendrys Morales and Ryan Howard to be anywhere close to sold on drafting them. Howard is reportedly going to miss the first month and I am passing already.
  • I would happily take Carlos Pena in the 18th or later rounds, but only if I don't already have an average killer on the roster. His 4yr avg numbers in TB: 237/ 36 Hr / 101 RBI / 83 Runs. Now I'm not saying he gets to any of those numbers, but as your second 1B or CI those are some pretty numbers minus the Avg.
  • From a deeper league view Daniel Murphy is a lottery ticket, who has multiple eligibility (1B, 3B, and 2B). If he can stay healthy and the Mets actually give him enough Ab's, he should be a decent end of draft gamble.
So my theory of drafting a 1B this year is either get one early or suffer with the 80% factor. Now that may play itself out if you get a huge bat somewhere's else in the first 2 rounds, but its hard to name more than 4 guys who will have better HR/RBI potential than the top 6 1B. So as always questions and comments are always welcome, and sorry I ate all the pie. Happy drafting.

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