Fantasy Baseball 2012 - Early ADP - Starting Pitchers


We come to the second to last installment of the early ADP trends over at Mock Draft Central. We take a gander at the Starting Pitchers. So many theories have been bandied about, how this system works and people who don't draft starters till after round so and so. Well it's all well and good in theory, until you start drafting your team. Best advice I can drop on ya is don't chase wins, period. Wins are a wonky stat. So enjoy the pretty little chart and have a nice slice of my analysis afterwards.


Player
Pos Team ADP Earliest Latest Draft %
1 (8) Justin Verlander SP DET 9.18 2 28 100.0%
2 (15) Roy Halladay SP PHI 15.28 5 27 100.0%
3 (16) Clayton Kershaw SP LA 15.95 4 28 100.0%
4 (21) Cliff Lee SP PHI 20.64 11 38 100.0%
5 (24) Tim Lincecum SP SF 24.71 15 44 100.0%
6 (27) Felix Hernandez SP SEA 27.25 19 47 100.0%
7 (29) CC Sabathia SP NYY 31.04 19 61 100.0%
8 (32) Cole Hamels SP PHI 31.94 20 58 100.0%
9 (34) Jered Weaver SP ANA 33.69 18 56 100.0%
10 (37) David Price SP TB 39.10 25 66 100.0%
11 (42) Dan Haren SP ANA 43.37 30 73 100.0%
12 (48) Zack Greinke SP MIL 50.15 33 73 100.0%
13 (50) Yovani Gallardo SP MIL 51.29 34 87 100.0%
14 (51) Jon Lester SP BOS 52.22 32 79 100.0%
15 (61) Matt Cain SP SF 61.13 39 85 100.0%
16 (63) Stephen Strasburg SP WAS 62.46 35 90 100.0%
17 (65) James Shields SP TB 67.74 44 104 100.0%
18 (69) Ian Kennedy SP ARI 70.09 36 98 100.0%
19 (72) Mat Latos SP CIN 72.14 46 126 100.0%
20 (75) Madison Bumgarner SP SF 75.68 53 110 100.0%
21 (84) C.J. Wilson SP ANA 86.57 43 119 100.0%
22 (85) Dan Hudson SP ARI 86.57 63 127 100.0%
23 (87) Ricky Romero SP TOR 86.99 61 128 100.0%
24 (91) Josh Beckett SP BOS 92.79 64 151 100.0%
25 (92) Tommy Hanson SP ATL 93.89 64 136 100.0%
26 (95) Michael Pineda SP NYY 97.07 62 128 100.0%
27 (96) Josh Johnson SP MIA 97.90 50 -ND- 99.9%
28 (100) Matt Moore SP TB 101.46 49 -ND- 99.9%
29 (104) Gio Gonzalez SP WAS 103.85 64 133 100.0%
30 (105) Adam Wainwright SP STL 103.96 59 304 100.0%
31 (111) Matt Garza SP CHC 110.67 64 152 100.0%
32 (113) Johnny Cueto SP CIN 115.94 93 186 100.0%
33 (114) Brandon Beachy SP ATL 116.11 84 -ND- 99.9%
34 (115) Yu Darvish SP TEX 118.36 57 -ND- 99.9%
35 (117) Jordan Zimmermann SP WAS 120.38 86 -ND- 99.9%
36 (125) Chris Carpenter SP STL 125.14 85 -ND- 99.9%
37 (127) Jeremy Hellickson SP TB 128.89 85 -ND- 99.9%
38 (129) Anibal Sanchez SP MIA 129.68 90 -ND- 99.9%
39 (135) Cory Luebke SP SD 138.06 94 -ND- 99.9%
40 (136) Tim Hudson SP ATL 138.14 104 -ND- 99.9%
41 (142) Shaun Marcum SP MIL 147.18 104 -ND- 99.9%
42 (146) Max Scherzer SP DET 149.90 95 -ND- 99.6%
43 (149) Ervin Santana SP ANA 150.92 102 -ND- 99.5%
44 (154) Ubaldo Jimenez SP CLE 155.34 109 -ND- 99.6%
45 (165) Derek Holland SP TEX 169.54 114 -ND- 99.6%
46 (167) Hiroki Kuroda SP NYY 170.72 120 -ND- 99.0%
47 (174) Wandy Rodriguez SP HOU 174.79 132 -ND- 98.8%
48 (179) Trevor Cahill SP ARI 177.96 124 -ND- 98.7%
49 (180) Jaime Garcia SP STL 178.69 122 -ND- 98.1%
50 (182) Brandon Morrow SP TOR 181.72 111 -ND- 96.2%
51 (184) Doug Fister SP DET 184.21 80 -ND- 96.8%
52 (192) Jhoulys Chacin SP COL 192.74 137 -ND- 95.6%
53 (193) John Danks SP CHW 193.09 145 -ND- 95.7%
54 (200) Justin Masterson SP CLE 199.99 147 -ND- 94.3%
55 (201) Brandon McCarthy SP OAK 204.58 139 -ND- 93.8%
56 (202) Colby Lewis SP TEX 204.78 160 -ND- 92.3%
57 (205) Clay Buchholz SP BOS 208.15 122 -ND- 89.9%
58 (208) Alexi Ogando SP TEX 210.27 160 -ND- 91.5%
59 (212) Jair Jurrjens SP ATL 211.36 139 -ND- 90.7%
60 (215) Scott Baker SP MIN 213.69 156 -ND- 87.4%
61 (216) Ryan Vogelsong SP SF 214.26 139 -ND- 86.4%
62 (222) Javier Vazquez SP FA 216.60 139 -ND- 87.0%
63 (225) Phil Hughes SP NYY 217.58 217 -ND- 7.9%
64 (226) Julio Teheran SP ATL 218.54 210 -ND- 10.2%
65 (227) Shelby Miller SP STL 219.35 211 -ND- 11.5%
66 (232) Jake Peavy SP CHW 220.22 203 -ND- 12.1%
67 (234) Dillon Gee SP NYM 221.28 214 -ND- 0.2%
68 (237) Jonathon Niese SP NYM 221.95 215 -ND- 13.9%
69 (238) Edinson Volquez SP SD 222.00 201 -ND- 15.2%
70 (240) Tim Stauffer SP SD 222.16 212 -ND- 15.1%
71 (248) Jonathan Sanchez SP KC 225.02 205 -ND- 20.0%
72 (252) Erik Bedard SP PIT 225.53 209 -ND- 21.3%
73 (255) Roy Oswalt SP FA 226.03 121 -ND- 81.4%
74 (258) Ricky Nolasco SP MIA 226.73 192 -ND- 24.0%
75 (260) Carlos Zambrano SP MIA 227.34 215 -ND- 19.5%
76 (264) Vance Worley SP PHI 227.48 128 -ND- 77.7%
77 (266) Johan Santana SP NYM 228.00 145 -ND- 77.1%
78 (268) R.A. Dickey SP NYM 228.18 189 -ND- 76.8%
79 (274) Edwin Jackson SP WAS 229.48 159 -ND- 31.5%
80 (279) Ted Lilly SP LA 230.18 158 -ND- 49.0%
81 (281) Matt Harrison SP TEX 230.48 194 -ND- 29.3%
82 (282) Gavin Floyd SP CHW 230.49 207 -ND- 28.9%
83 (285) Ivan Nova SP NYY 230.80 130 -ND- 55.5%
84 (291) Bud Norris SP HOU 231.15 161 -ND- 62.5%
85 (294) Brett Anderson SP OAK 231.44 182 -ND- 72.0%
86 (295) Mike Minor SP ATL 231.45 181 -ND- 40.6%
87 (297) Mark Buehrle SP MIA 232.19 165 -ND- 49.3%
88 (300) Chad Billingsley SP LA 232.26 171 -ND- 67.6%
89 (308) Ryan Dempster SP CHC 233.31 171 -ND- 46.5%
90 (312) Josh Collmenter SP ARI 234.05 204 -ND- 39.0%
91 (314) Francisco Liriano SP MIN 234.13 188 -ND- 41.4%
92 (323) Mike Leake SP CIN 235.75 228 -ND- 12.9%
93 (325) Kyle Lohse SP STL 235.75 228 -ND- 5.1%
94 (330) Alfredo Aceves SP BOS 236.39 205 -ND- 45.8%
95 (336) Rick Porcello SP DET 236.79 229 -ND- 4.3%
96 (337) Drew Pomeranz SP COL 236.79 229 -ND- 4.6%
97 (338) Jeff Niemann SP TB 236.79 229 -ND- 4.5%
98 (342) Luke Hochevar SP KC 237.76 208 -ND- 60.1%
99 (347) Jorge DeLaRosa SP COL 237.82 230 -ND- 16.2%
100 (352) Brad Peacock SP WAS 239.89 232 -ND- 3.7%
101 (363) Homer Bailey SP CIN 242.99 235 -ND- 9.6%
102 (367) Henderson Alvarez SP TOR 245.06 237 -ND- 6.4%
103 (377) Guillermo Moscoso SP COL 261.60 253 -ND- 3.1%
104 (378) Bartolo Colon SP OAK 261.60 253 -ND- 0.6%
105 (381) Aaron Harang SP LA 263.67 255 -ND- 9.4%
106 (392) Chris Capuano SP LA 272.98 264 -ND- 3.6%
107 (394) Brian Matusz SP BAL 274.01 265 -ND- 8.6%
108 (395) Jarrod Parker SP OAK 274.01 265 -ND- 1.7%
109 (397) James McDonald SP PIT 275.04 266 -ND- 6.0%
110 (399) A.J. Burnett SP NYY 278.15 269 -ND- 3.1%
111 (400) Juan Nicasio SP COL 279.18 270 -ND- 1.2%
112 (401) Jacob Turner SP DET 279.18 270 -ND- 1.7%
113 (405) Josh Tomlin SP CLE 282.28 273 -ND- 2.4%
114 (408) Hisashi Iwakuma SP SEA 285.38 276 -ND- 0.6%
115 (409) Randy Wolf SP MIL 285.38 276 -ND- 3.7%

  • Taking a pitcher in Rd 1 is not my cup of tea, unless its AL/NL only. Even then I will prolly err on the side of the hitters, because they play everyday. So Verlander going in round 1 seems awesome to me because if someone wants to waste a pick on him then better for me.
  • My draft theory for starting pitching is simple, I take 3 hitters at the top of the draft and then with my 4th and 5th round pick I take the best two available starters. Recently it has been Greinke and Haren. I like taking them back to back because, guess what, I don't have to take another starter for 6 more rounds. Which in theory should give you an almost complete hitting roster (minus catcher because that's what the last pick is for).
  • Everyone has lots of like and dislikes when it comes to SP, best advice when in doubt take a NL SP. The league as a whole has a better ERA and WHIP ratio. I'm not really looking for wins because they can't be counted on.
  • Alot of pitchers are also hampered with the whole innings limit scenario. There are alot of top talent names that won't pitch 200 innings this year and are being drafted in the 6th-10th rounds. It starts with Strasburg and runs all the way through Jordan Zimmermann. In a keeper league yea it makes sense but in a one year league, barring inning restrictions in your league, those 50 innings are a big difference to me.
  • I am not a fan of Gio Gonzalez at all. I think he was aided like most A's pitchers by ballpark effects. I also don't trust his walk rate one bit.
  • I love me some Anibal Sanchez. Think he is poised to break-out even further this year than last. Once again wins are wonky and he only had 8 last year. But outperformed his ERA the last 2 years. 15 wins and 200 k's in Rd 10. Raises hand and says yes please.
  • Don't underestimate the power of PETCO, Luebke is getting all types of mid-round love already. Guys like Stauffer and Volquez are decent 5th starter guys with an asterisk because they will pitch in a haven for SP.
  • Don't forget about those willy veterans, I personally love these guys and have a hard time breaking myself away from guys that out perform their ERA. Guys like Ted Lilly, Edwin Jackson, Brandon McCarthy and Gavin Floyd.
  • Sleepers are everywhere for SP. Some late round gems that I think will do well this year are Luke Hochevar, Brad Peacock and Chris Capuano. Hochevar seemed to turn the corner at the end of last year, overall his numbers are mediocre but his last 10 starts or so really showed something or at least to me they did. The other 2 are benefits of ballpark which can never be a bad thing for your periphs.

The key to any starting pitching is streaming. I use it to my advantage all to much and write about it on other sites. Getting key starts from 2 start guys is the key to victory in any H2H league. Free piece of advice for an advantage to streaming, check the daily betting lines for the games upcoming. The guys who determine that stuff get paid a crap-ton of money to not be wrong and to set odds that look at every facet of the game. So happy drafting and good luck. Question, comments and sentimental hellos are always welcome.

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