Fantasy Baseball 2012- Early ADP - OF

TORONTO - MAY 31: Jose Bautista #19 of the Toronto Blue Jays hits against the Tampa Bay Rays during an MLB game at the Rogers Centre May 31, 2010 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Abelimages/Getty Images)


Continuing our look at the positional ADP draft trends over at Mock Draft Central , we come to the ever mysterious Outfield. Now for me it doesn't look as deep as everyone else thinks it does. It seems to be very top heavy with a deluge of tweener 3-4th OF stuck in there. I am only one voice though and have participated in enough mock drafts to date to shake several sticks at. So take a look at the trends that are driving pretend baseball. More analysis after the chart. Enjoy.

Player Pos Team ADP Earliest Latest Draft %
1 (1) Matt Kemp OF LA 1.74 1 8 100.0%
2 (4) Jose Bautista OF,3B TOR 4.33 1 10 100.0%
3 (6) Jacoby Ellsbury OF BOS 9.00 2 21 100.0%
4 (7) Justin Upton OF ARI 9.03 3 19 100.0%
5 (14) Carlos Gonzalez OF COL 14.06 3 22 100.0%
6 (20) Curtis Granderson OF NYY 19.39 8 37 100.0%
7 (22) Mike Stanton OF MIA 22.64 7 36 100.0%
8 (25) Andrew McCutchen OF PIT 26.47 15 40 100.0%
9 (28) Ryan Braun OF MIL 28.36 14 69 100.0%
10 (29) Josh Hamilton OF TEX 30.95 17 48 100.0%
11 (36) Matt Holliday OF STL 37.49 22 57 100.0%
12 (38) Carl Crawford OF BOS 40.24 24 74 100.0%
13 (39) Jay Bruce OF CIN 40.65 26 70 100.0%
14 (43) Hunter Pence OF PHI 44.51 25 67 100.0%
15 (47) Nelson Cruz OF TEX 49.50 29 70 100.0%
16 (55) Desmond Jennings OF TB 56.35 27 99 100.0%
17 (56) Michael Bourn OF ATL 56.69 31 92 100.0%
18 (62) Alex Gordon OF KC 61.67 35 90 100.0%
19 (64) Shin-Soo Choo OF CLE 65.17 41 104 100.0%
20 (66) B.J. Upton OF TB 67.82 43 112 100.0%
21 (74) Shane Victorino OF PHI 75.47 42 111 100.0%
22 (75) Adam Jones OF BAL 75.58 49 105 100.0%
23 (80) Drew Stubbs OF CIN 81.49 53 172 100.0%
24 (88) Corey Hart OF MIL 90.74 55 127 100.0%
25 (89) Lance Berkman OF,1B STL 90.88 49 120 100.0%
26 (93) Michael Cuddyer OF,1B COL 94.94 31 136 100.0%
27 (94) Brett Gardner OF NYY 95.00 61 146 100.0%
28 (99) Jayson Werth OF WAS 99.50 62 156 100.0%
29 (102) Cameron Maybin OF SD 103.43 73 157 100.0%
30 (106) Ichiro Suzuki OF SEA 104.41 61 141 100.0%
31 (109) Jason Heyward OF ATL 107.08 61 148 100.0%
32 (121) Nick Swisher OF NYY 123.62 91 190 100.0%
33 (124) Chris Young OF ARI 124.85 68 182 100.0%
34 (125) Nick Markakis OF BAL 125.01 75 171 100.0%
35 (131) Andre Ethier OF LA 134.90 77 187 100.0%
36 (132) Peter Bourjos OF ANA 135.66 98 -ND- 99.9%
37 (137) Carlos Beltran OF STL 138.96 76 -ND- 99.9%
38 (146) Logan Morrison OF MIA 149.18 99 -ND- 99.9%
39 (153) Matt Joyce OF TB 155.18 110 -ND- 99.8%
40 (155) Coco Crisp OF OAK 156.59 103 -ND- 99.2%
41 (168) Angel Pagan OF SF 170.80 123 -ND- 97.9%
42 (171) Melky Cabrera OF SF 173.08 75 -ND- 97.9%
43 (172) Austin Jackson OF DET 173.81 123 -ND- 96.4%
44 (176) Torii Hunter OF ANA 178.07 126 -ND- 96.9%
45 (186) Jeff Francoeur OF KC 187.91 109 -ND- 95.9%
46 (189) Martin Prado OF,3B ATL 190.73 105 -ND- 95.5%
47 (190) Juan Pierre OF PHI 190.88 149 -ND- 91.6%
48 (191) Carlos Lee OF,1B HOU 191.04 133 -ND- 94.6%
49 (195) Josh Willingham OF,DH MIN 194.09 117 -ND- 94.1%
50 (196) Yoenis Cespedes OF FA 195.15 97 -ND- 93.1%
51 (203) Vernon Wells OF ANA 206.12 142 -ND- 86.6%
52 (204) Brandon Belt OF,1B SF 206.32 133 -ND- 89.2%
53 (208) Mike Trout OF ANA 209.62 119 -ND- 83.2%
54 (209) Colby Rasmus OF TOR 209.85 140 -ND- 84.8%
55 (210) Bryce Harper OF WAS 210.34 91 -ND- 83.1%
56 (213) Carlos Quentin OF SD 212.69 136 -ND- 84.0%
57 (218) Brennan Boesch OF DET 214.37 148 -ND- 80.6%
58 (222) Eric Thames OF TOR 215.67 204 -ND- 5.4%
59 (228) Nyjer Morgan OF MIL 218.80 203 -ND- 9.8%
60 (237) Alex Rios OF CHW 221.07 152 -ND- 74.4%
61 (247) Alfonso Soriano OF CHC 224.13 141 -ND- 25.1%
62 (248) Lorenzo Cain OF KC 224.19 169 -ND- 71.2%
63 (253) Delmon Young OF DET 225.42 156 -ND- 44.0%
64 (255) Seth Smith OF OAK 225.51 156 -ND- 71.2%
65 (256) Rajai Davis OF TOR 225.75 217 -ND- 20.9%
66 (258) Alejandro DeAza OF CHW 225.95 135 -ND- 69.1%
67 (261) Dexter Fowler OF COL 226.59 163 -ND- 36.5%
68 (263) Domonic Brown OF PHI 226.98 198 -ND- 23.2%
69 (264) Jason Bourgeois OF HOU 227.15 165 -ND- 69.2%
70 (265) Michael Brantley OF CLE 227.32 195 -ND- 66.1%
71 (267) John Mayberry OF PHI 227.56 132 -ND- 67.2%
72 (268) Lucas Duda OF,1B NYM 227.59 151 -ND- 76.4%
73 (271) Jose Tabata OF PIT 227.75 179 -ND- 36.5%
74 (277) David Murphy OF TEX 228.51 221 -ND- 4.8%
75 (281) Jason Bay OF NYM 229.35 181 -ND- 34.5%
76 (286) Jason Kubel OF,DH ARI 229.66 164 -ND- 43.6%
77 (287) Grady Sizemore OF CLE 229.92 149 -ND- 55.4%
78 (291) Yonder Alonso OF SD 230.41 149 -ND- 52.6%
79 (298) Chris Heisey OF CIN 231.22 188 -ND- 60.2%
80 (306) Ben Revere OF MIN 232.40 169 -ND- 49.8%
81 (308) Dayan Viciedo OF CHW 232.46 189 -ND- 49.6%
82 (310) Allen Craig OF STL 232.50 190 -ND- 55.4%
83 (322) Alex Presley OF PIT 234.72 227 -ND- 5.8%
84 (336) Cody Ross OF BOS 236.79 229 -ND- 4.2%
85 (344) Ryan Raburn OF,2B DET 239.06 192 -ND- 39.5%
86 (352) Jon Jay OF STL 242.99 235 -ND- 1.2%
87 (354) J.D. Martinez OF HOU 242.99 235 -ND- 7.2%
88 (361) Denard Span OF MIN 247.13 239 -ND- 11.5%
89 (362) Bryan LaHair OF CHC 250.23 242 -ND- 12.2%
90 (364) Jerry Sands OF LA 254.36 246 -ND- 2.9%
91 (369) Nolan Reimold OF BAL 257.47 249 -ND- 4.9%
92 (383) Josh Reddick OF OAK 268.84 260 -ND- 3.2%
93 (385) Raul Ibanez OF FA 268.84 260 -ND- 3.4%
94 (405) Luke Scott OF TB 282.28 273 -ND- 3.8%
95 (409) Ryan Ludwick OF CIN 286.42 277 -ND- 3.0%
96 (410) Andres Torres OF NYM 287.45 278 -ND- 2.5%
97 (411) Will Venable OF SD 292.62 283 -ND- 2.6%
98 (412) Marlon Byrd OF CHC 293.66 284 -ND- 2.4%
99 (415) Brent Lillibridge OF,1B CHW 295.72 286 -ND- 2.2%
100 (417) Garrett Jones OF,1B PIT 296.76 287 -ND- 2.6%

  • Now I am skeptical of the overall depth of OF, but in a 3 OF or any league there is plenty to go around. I don't play in any league that have only 3 OF or any league smaller than 14 teams, so maybe my opinion is jaded a little. The top of the draft is littered with OF the first 3 rounds has a total of 10 OF's being selected. Starting pitching has 9 and 1b has 6 for comparison sake.
  • The top shelf for me, and that's #1 or #2 OF, falls off at about the 28th ranked guy Jayson Werth. This is only in round 8 people. I am not telling you that you can't make a successful OF after that but the quality of talent after that is less, lot of empty stat guys or SB threats.
  • Desmond Jennings personally is going too high for me to gamble on currently. Sure he has potential for 20/50. I would like a bigger sample size of MLB experience for him to show it to warrant a 4th round grade.
  • I will prolly take my first OF in the 4th round, it will probably be someone from the Jay Bruce, Hunter Pence Nelson Cruz grouping. So if all goes to draft plan I will have a 1B, Best non-1B, SP and then an OF with my first 4 picks. This all depends on draft position in the first round because if I can sniff Tulo in the first I am taking him
  • Stolen bases are a plenty and you only need and want one SB only guy. Just pick one of the Gardner, Bourn Crisp group and then don't look for another one(until late because there are plenty of sleepers). The other players you draft should contribute enough to be decent enough from week to week.
  • Good value picks continue through the 9-13th rounds. Lot's of guys who used to be higher and continually get drafted based on past experience, yeah i'm talking to you Nick Markakis. Krispie Young jumps out at me as a great 20/20 guy after rd 10. Best value from this grouping for me to exceed there draft position, Logan Morrison. Still just 24, I can see him exceeding every stat this year, tentatively have him at 260/28/85/80/8sb and getting on base at a .370 clip.
  • As your reading down the list and get past LoMo, it gets pretty gross. This is what i was talking about your possibly 2nd and 3rd OF choices look really ugly. I am calling this the "2 o'clock special". Ugly, you don't care about their past and you only really need them for one thing only. This list goes from Matt Joyce at 39 overall to Delmon Young at 63. Granted there are some good ones mixed with some sleeper appeal, but that 25 pick stretch is like finding one onion ring when you order fries from BK.
  • Now is where the fun for me starts. Lot's of sleeper type guys to work into your 3rd- 4th OF/Util/Bench. Guys that I have taken frequently are Seth Smith, check his stats, go ahead i'll wait. Yea even in limited time he is pretty decent. Line-up around him is trash but I think he makes the All-Star team how is that for being optimistic. Others I like from the this sleeper group are Dex Fowler, Lucas Duda and Jose Tabata.
  • As you get towards the end I like to look for guys that have one of two things. Multiple position eligibility or can steal bases. Garrett Jones, Juan Rivera, Ryan Raburn types. For speed it's always good to look for guys that will have no trouble getting AB's, Ben Revere, Alex Presley and Wil Venable are all on young second division teams with no real better options.
So as the draft goes so should you. Having a plan is great until it goes awry and your stuck at the end of run on a position. When in doubt take the best available at another position, starting pitching is always good to have. The OF situation may or may not play itself out like I have seen it, but the quality of depth that is in this position just doesn't seem to be there as per usual. Draft one early, two in the middle and draft a sleeper at the end. So good luck and happy drafting. Questions, comments or political donations are greatly appreciated.

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