Angel Pagan: Regression Candidate

Christian Petersen

Ray Guilfoyle takes a look at free agent outfielder Angel Pagan and thinks he may be overvalued in 2013 drafts.

OK, before you read this piece, know that I am a Dodgers fan, but my fandom was not a factor in my stance on Giants outfielder Angel Pagan. Pagan had an excellent season in 2012, his walk year, and is poised to earn a 3-4 year deal from one of the many teams looking for an outfielder this offseason.

Pagan hit .290-.338-.440 with 8 HRs, 38 doubles, a league leading 15 triples, 95 runs, 56 RBI and 29 stolen bases this season and was an important part of the Giants second World Series win in the last three years. But, in a surprising move, the Giants did not tender Pagan a qualifying offer last week, so he is officially a free agent. Maybe I see what they see, and that is Pagan is unlikely to repeat his 2012 season, especially now that he is on the wrong side of 30.

Let's take a look at his career stats, thanks to Baseball-Reference:

Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2006 24 77 170 28 42 6 2 5 18 4 15 28 .247 .306 .394 .701
2007 25 71 148 21 39 10 2 4 21 4 10 32 .264 .306 .439 .745
2008 26 31 91 12 25 7 1 0 13 4 11 18 .275 .346 .374 .720
2009 27 88 343 54 105 22 11 6 32 14 25 56 .306 .350 .487 .837
2010 28 151 579 80 168 31 7 11 69 37 44 97 .290 .340 .425 .765
2011 29 123 478 68 125 24 4 7 56 32 44 62 .262 .322 .372 .694
2012 30 154 605 95 174 38 15 8 56 29 48 97 .288 .338 .440 .778
7 Yrs 695 2414 358 678 138 42 41 265 124 197 390 .281 .333 .424 .757
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/3/2012.

Pagan scored 95 runs leading off for the Giants, good for 19th in MLB this season. Prior to this season, he never scored more than 80 runs in any one season. Pagan is not a power hitter, as his .440 slugging percentage was his highest since 2009, when he was with the Mets. He was also 28 years old in 2009. He did have a career high 38 doubles and 15 triples in 2012, and his 8 home runs gave him a total of 61 extra base hits. Could he duplicate that in 2013? He could, but I think it is unlikely. Coming into 2012, he never had more than 49 extra base hits in any one season.

What Pagan will provide fantasy owners is a solid batting average as he has hit .288 in three of the last four seasons. He doesn't strikeout or walk much, so his OBP is all driven by his batting average. He also provides fantasy owners with solid stolen base totals, as he has stolen 29 or more bases in each of the last 3 seasons, but his stolen base totals have been trending down the last two seasons. He stole 37 bases in 2010, 32 bases in 2011 and 29 in 2012.

Fantasy owners can expect a solid batting average and stolen base total from Pagain in 2013, but don't expect him to duplicate his run and extra base hit totals.
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