The BTS series continues with a look at players you may be able to draft in the middle to late rounds, that may have good value in a 2013 deep league. Today I look at three from the Minnesota Twins
Leading off; Trevor Plouffe, 3B. Did you project Trevor to hit 24 HRs in 2012? If you did, your crystal ball is better than mine. Indeed, Mr Plouffe's first full season (actually two-thirds of a season) in the majors was not too shabby. He hit those 24 round-trippers (No one seems to call HRs "round-trippers" any more), drove in 55, and scored 56. Can he repeat the power in 2013? I think he can. His ISO (Isolated Power) was average to above average in the minors, and he was able to carry the above average part of that into last year to post a .220 ISO, last year. Given his career high PX of 136, even if some sophomore regression occurs in 2013, I still look for 22 HRs from Trevor's bat. Batting average? That's another story. While Trevor's CT% of 80.20 and BB% of 8.00% should equate to a BA in the .263 area, nothing in Trevor's minor league history gives me any confidence he can sustain such an average over an entire season. I'll go with a .238 BA to go with a moderate number of RBI and runs (how's that for precision ?) from a CI you can probably wait on in drafts next season.
Next up; outfielder, Ben Revere. I will tell you right off the bat (see what I did there?) , that I am a huge Ben Revere fan. I just like watching him play. He plays hard, and seems as though he is having the time of his life out there. He does not have any power, but he bats lead off, scores runs, and steals bases. In fact, he steals lots of bases. In 2012 he stole 40; 6 more than in 2011. Will those totals continue to increase in the future? I think so, but we may be nearing a ceiling for our beloved Ben. He certainly has the speed. His SPD of 145 in 2011 improved to 152 in 2012, however his walk rate was 5% in both of those seasons, and if that cannot improve, his SB opportunities will remain status quo. Additionally, while his speed may enable him to beat out some ground balls, his impatience at the plate may cost him some BA points. I look for a BA around .274 to go with 43 SBs in 2013. Throw in an appropriate number of runs and you have yourself a nice fifth outfielder.
Let's finish uo with starting pitcher Scott Diamond. 2012 was young Scott's first full season in the majors. Mr. Diamond began his career in 2008, in the Braves organization, before moving to the Twins in 2011. In 2012 he won 12 games for the Twins and ended the year with a very respectable 3.54 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Very impressive, but I am going to remain cautious for 2013. He threw 204.2 innings last year (majors and minors, combined), about 25% more than the year before, and a whole bunch more than any other year. I wonder if we wll see some fatigue in 2013? He only throws an 88 mph fastball to begin with, and while his bb/9 was a terrific 1.61/9, his K/9 of 4.68 is difficult to get past. There is some potential upside. He has seen his K/9 in the 6.49 to 7.92 range, in previous minor league seasons, and he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 0.88 HR/9, so there is some room for optimism. Think hard, but, if he is available late enough, consider taking a flyer on Mr. Diamond, but make sure that K/9 increases significantly, before placing too much faith in him.
Did I miss someone on the Twins that you have your eye on? Leave a comment, and I will do my best.