Robert, Jason and I have completed our early 2012 fantasy baseball position rankings, and now we continue our rankings coverage with AL-only and NL-only Position Rankings. Today, I will cover the AL-Only and NL-only first base rankings. First base has long been known as a deep position, and it appears the AL is much deeper than the NL this year, especially after Albert Pujols said sayonara to the Cardinals at the Winter Meetings. I have ranked the free agent first baseman in both lists.
AL-Only Rankings
AL-Only
1. Miguel Cabrera, DET
2. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
3. Albert Pujols, LAA
4. Prince Fielder, DET
5. Mark Teixeira, NYY
The rest of my rankings with a some notes about a few of them after the jump:
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6. Eric Hosmer, KC
7. Paul Konerko, CHW
8. Carlos Santana, CLE
9. Mike Napoli, TEX
10. Mark Reynolds, BAL
11. Michael Young, TEX
12. Adam Lind, TOR
13. Justin Smoak, SEA
14. Michael Cuddyer, TBD
15. Mark Trumbo, LAA
16. Adam Dunn, CHW
17. Mitch Moreland, TEX
18. Kendrys Morales, LAA
19. Justin Morneau, MIN
20. Mike Carp, SEA
21. Matt Laporta, CLE
22. Casey Kotchman, TB
23. Chris Parmalee, MIN
24. Dan Johnson, TB
25. Chris Davis, BAL
I still like Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez over Albert Pujols, even with the move to the AL West. I have a hard time looking past Pujols drop in power over the last few years and wonder if it is the beginning of a downtrend in his power. Maybe he gets more days off in LA where Scioscia can DH him once a week come midseason to keep him fresh. But, I will wait and see if that happens this year. Pujols could feel added pressure, ala Carl Crawford, with the huge contract hanging over his head. Plus, he is moving to a new league where he has not seen many of the pitchers.
2012 may not be the year Eric Hosmer breaks out, but I think he can improve upon his 2011 showing. He has 25-30 home run power and can steal double digit bags, with a solid BA to with all that. He very well could move up these rankings come 2013.
Another guy who could move up these rankings, and you can get pretty late in drafts is Seattle first baseman Justin Smoak. Smoak dealt with some personal issues due to the death of his father and a hand injury that sapped his power, so he could be the sleeper amongst first baseman in 2012.
NL-Only
1. Joey Votto, CIN
2. Michael Morse, WAS
3. Lance Berkman, STL
4. Freddie Freeman, ATL
5. Ike Davis, NYM
6. Gaby Sanchez, MIA
7. Brandon Belt, SFG
8. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI
9. Carlos Lee, HOU
10. Lucas Duda, NYM
11. Yonder Alonso, SD
12. James Loney, LAD
13. Adam LaRoche, WAS
14. Aubrey Huff, SFG
15. Todd Helton, COL
16. Ryan Howard, PHI
17. Anthony Rizzo, SD
18. Ty Wigginton, PHI
19. Juan Rivera, LAD
20. Casey Kotchman, TBD
21. Daniel Murphy, NYM
22. Brett Wallace, HOU
Wow. You see what happens when Albert Pujols leaves for the American League? Prince Fielder may yet follow him, and Ryan Howard will miss at least the first month of the season, and probably more. The Phillies picked up Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome for a reason, and I think it because Howard will be out a lot longer than GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is indicating.
First base in NL-Only leagues has gone from very good to terrible. After Votto, who do you really want to draft early? Michael Morse? More on him later. Lance Berkman? I am not buying his 2011 season. Ryan Howard? He will be out longer than you think? Freddie Freeman? Does he have a Jason Heyward-like second year in the majors? It's tough pickings, so those of you in NL-Only leagues can grab another outfielder before drafting your first baseman in 2012 drafts.
One guy who some think had a fluke year in 2011 is Nationals first baseman Michael Morse. I am not so sure I agree with that thought. Morse had some solid monthly splits. With the exception of September, where he probably tired, and April where he barely played, Morse never hit below .299, and had only one month where he hit less than 6 home runs. Will he repeat in 2012? I think so, and I would be a buyer on draft day.
Lucas Duda is another sleeper pick for me, as I can see him hitting 20+ home runs and driving in 85-90 runs for the Mets. He will probably play right field, but has first base eligibility in 2012. He should be able to take advantage of the Mets decision to move the fences in this offseason, and I could see him approach 25 home run in 2012.