Ranking the Pitching Prospects: Cole, Darvish, Bauer, Hultzen and Others

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 4, 2012 12:38 PM EST in 2012 Fantasy Prospect Rankings

OMAHA, NE - JUNE 28: Starting pitcher Gerrit Cole #12 of the UCLA Bruins prepares himself before pitching against the South Carolina Gamecocks during Game 1 of the men's 2010 NCAA College Baseball World Series at Rosenblatt Stadium on June 28, 2010 in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Today, we are going to rank some of the pitching prospects drafted in the 2011 MLB draft, along with a few other pitching prospects who had breakout seasons in 2011.

Gerrit Cole, PIT

Yu Darvish, TEX

Trevor Bauer, ARI

Dylan Bundy, BAL

Danny Hultzen, SEA

Shelby Miller, STL

Julio Teheran, ATL

My rankings and thoughts after the jump:

Here is how I would rank these pitching prospects long term:

Shelby Miller

Trevor Bauer

Gerrit Cole

Yu Darvish

Dylan Bundy

Julio Teheran

Danny Hultzen

As you can see, I am not that high on Teheran right now. The drop in strikeout rate has me concerned, but he has not missed a beat at any level thus far, so it has not hindered his performance to date. I think it catches up to him in the big leagues. Does me finally make the Braves rotation in 2012? I think the Braves are doing all they can to get him into their rotation with their attempt to deal Jair Jurrjens.

I like Cardinal pitching prospect Shelby Miller quite a bit, and think we see him in their rotation sometime this season. It could be June or later, but I think it happens this season. Many baseball writers are stating the Cardinals are a better team without Albert Pujols in 2012. I don't see it. This team was very close to being eliminated from the playoffs, and without the help of the Braves terrible September, they would not have even made the playoffs. Miller's strikeout rate dropped as he moved up to AA in 2011 as well, but I think he is the type of pitcher who will be able to maintain a high strikeout rate from here on.

There are four pitching prospects ahead of Teheran and after Miller, and I found it difficult to rank them, to be honest. So if anyone can argue for one over the other, I wouldn't have a problem. None of these 4 prospects have pitched in the minor leagues so let's hear how you would rank these guys for 2012.

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Many baseball writers are stating the Cardinals are a better team without Albert Pujols in 2012. I don’t see it. This team was very close to being eliminated from the playoffs, and without the help of the Braves terrible September, they would not have even made the playoffs.

Not sure I understand the logic of this. If you’re arguing that the Cardinals weren’t a great team last year (even though they won the WS), I understand the point, although I would disagree with it. Take away a bunch of blown saves early in the season when Franklin was still hanging by a thread and this was a 95 win team – not too shabby.

If you’re argument is that the Cardinals are a lot worse than last year’s team because Pujols is gone, I don’t see it. We need 500 ABs from Beltran and Furcal and Berkman to not drop way off from last year. Add in Wainwright and this team should be good for 88-92 wins IMHO.

by JKAISER on Jan 4, 2012 12:58 PM EST reply actions

but

you are counting on some old guys to stay healthy….and that’s a bit of a risk. And, counting on Wainwright to be the old Wainwright from the get go might be optimistic.
I just think this team will be similar to the Rockies a few years ago. The Rockies got hot at the right time, and made teh playoffs, then had trouble repeating the next year.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 4, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 4, 2012 1:02 PM EST reply actions

ha!!

you don’t like the Hultzen ranking?

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 4, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

:)

Honestly, I think a lot of people heard on draft day that Hultzen was a “reach” at #2, and therefore just don’t think he’s good. Or they think he’s just “okay” or a “#3” starter, which is not the case. If he was a reach, he was a reach by like 4 spots. He might never win a Cy Young (or maybe he will, we never know) but here’s a lefty that has dominated at every spot, is advanced for his age, has great command, and good velocity. He looked excellent in the AFL (I’m not going to cite his number (though they were great) because it’s AFL, but he did look great there.) and I have a feeling he’s going to cruise through the minors and debut in August in the majors.

Here’s a kid that I think has a high probability to be a #2 starter and also pitch half of his games in Safeco. I think people put way too much emphasis on velocity over control/command, and way too much emphasis on pre-draft scouting reports.

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by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 4, 2012 1:09 PM EST up reply actions

i think

the majority base their decisions on ceiling in fantasy whether thats merited or not… and even though i agree with your statement i do believe Hultzen has the lowest ceiling of the bunch

by High Heater on Jan 5, 2012 8:25 AM EST up reply actions

Tyler Skaggs?

Where would you have Tyler Skaggs slotted, Ray? I don’t think he’s far behind Miller at this point and would slot him ahead of Cole, Bundy, Teheran and Hultzen. What Skaggs accomplished in 2011 (at age 19!) between A+ and AA was very impressive and it seems like Skaggs isn’t getting the attention he deserves. Those aren’t too far off from Matt Moore numbers, who competed at those same levels at 21, which is 2 years later than Skaggs!

by bds77 on Jan 4, 2012 1:32 PM EST reply actions

fair point

He is definitely in this discussion. I would probably rank him ahead of cole, bundy.n teheran and hultzen.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 4, 2012 2:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Darvish behind Bauer & Cole?

Is that based on the historical decline in pitchers who come over or analysis of stuff/ability in comparison?

by highheat on Jan 4, 2012 2:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Bauer's going to be a stud

and he’ll probably pitch in the majors this season. I love the ranking.

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"Orlando before Zod" doesn't have the same nice ring to it.

by nostocksjustbonds on Jan 4, 2012 3:29 PM EST reply actions

Disagree with rankings

Teheran’s low K’s rate is why he dropped? He was near the tops in AAA in ERA, WHIP, etc. He is not yet 21 but shows advanced skills. He has plus stuff and offers the least risk.

Cole has a great FB but poor control. He has not lived up to the stats that his own teammate did, Bauer. Cole has the upside, but very risky. Pitts does not have a strong history of developing SP either.

I’d go
Teheran
Bauer
darvish
miller
bundy
hultzen

by zeuspower on Jan 4, 2012 3:57 PM EST reply actions

forgot cole

teheran
bauer
darvish
miller
cole
bundy
hultzen

by zeuspower on Jan 4, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

Teheran, Darvish

I do think that Teheran has been slighted over the drop in strikeouts, but at the same time it’s concerning to see the sharp decline in K’s (from 10.8 K/9 at A+ to 7.6 K/9 at AAA). The decline in strikeouts gets a pass from me due to great ERA, Whip, and age for the level.

I would rank them:
Bauer
Teheran
Darvish
Miller
Skaggs
Cole
Bundy
Hultzen

Darvish is the most accomplished of the pitchers to this point, but I think in 2 years he will be damaged goods. The Japanese teams know when to post their players (or “sell high”), and I’m staying away in Dynasty Leagues.

by bds77 on Jan 4, 2012 5:17 PM EST reply actions

Inning's

This look’s more like a wish list then a list of pitchers who have at least 100 innings under here belt at a quality level of baseball. Not the AFL or rookie ball innings. Skaggs and Miller are your top 2 then Teheran after that they need o put some innings in . look what Bauer did in his A ball & AA ball games, he got rocked. Before you rank them make sure they have put in the innings also what about Oddrizzi (sorry i spelled his name wrong) all of these pitchers had over 160 innings of work.

by youngguns on Jan 4, 2012 7:33 PM EST reply actions

these rankings

are long term rankings….not 2012. But I see your point. These rankings assume each pitcher reaches their potential, which is a crapshoot.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 5, 2012 8:14 AM EST up reply actions

I still don't know if it's fair to compare Darvish to prospects

As I see his career curve being different due to being in his prime. I think Darvish is going to be the best of them for 2012-2013 at the very least, although his total upside may not be as high. Comps for major league, instead of minor league players, may make more sense, even though it involves some tougher projecting.

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by The Congo Hammer on Jan 5, 2012 2:59 AM EST reply actions

+1

I was unsure of where I wanted to rank him since he has pitched professionally in Japan. But, some prospect rankings assume he is a rookie, so i included him here.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 5, 2012 8:16 AM EST up reply actions