Top 100 Prospects: John Sickel's Top Rated Hitting Prospects

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 3, 2012 8:00 AM EST in Top 100 Prospects

PHOENIX, AZ - JULY 10: U.S. Futures All-Star Nolan Arenado #12 of the Colorado Rockies stands on base during the 2011 XM All-Star Futures Game at Chase Field on July 10, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

Fantasy owners, especially those in keeper or dynasty leagues, are always looking for the next top prospect to draft who will carry them the their next (first?) fantasy baseball championship. The prospect experts are in full force right now with John Sickels covering his Top 20 Prospects for each major league team, Baseball America with their Top 10 Prospects and Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein publishing his Top 20 Prospects as well. ESPN's Keith Law will publish his Top 100 Prospects for 2012 at the end of January.

With that said, I will post some of the top rated prospects from each of the experts over the next 3 months leading up to draft day, so today I continue with more of John Sickel's Top rated prospects for 2012. I will limit the list to A, A- and B+ rated prospects.

John Sickels updated top rated prospect list after the jump:

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Hitters

A Rating

Jurickson Profar, TEX

Manny Machado, BAL

Bryce Harper, WAS

Mike Trout, LAA

Jesus Montero, NYY

A- Rating

Bubba Starling, KC

Wil Myers, KC

Cheslor Cuthbert, KC

Anthony Rendon, WAS

Nolan Arenado, COL

B+ Rating

Andrelton Simmons, ATL

Nick Castellanos, DET

Miguel Sano, MIN

Eddie Rosario, MIN

Kolten Wong, STL

Oscar Tavares, STL

Xander Bogaerts, BOS

Jonathan Singleton, HOU

George Springer, HOU

Christian Yelich, MIA

Josh Bell, PIT

Anthony Rizzo, SD

Rymer Liriano, SD

Jedd Gyorko, SD

Hak-Ju Lee, TB

Jake Marisnick, TOR

Travis d'Arnaud, TOR

Gary Sanchez, NYY

Gary Brown, SFG

Some thoughts on Sickel's top rated hitting prospects:

Rockies third base prospect Nolan Arenado had a break out 2011 season, and continued his torrid hitting in the Arizona Fall League as well. Arenado hit .298-.349-.487 with 20 HRs, 32 doubles and 122 RBI at High A in 2011. Arenado has some power, but I have to admit, for a third baseman hitting in the California League, I thought he would have a higher slugging percentage than .487. The Cal League is know to be a hitters league, and Arenado's 20 home runs was good for just 9th in the league. For comparison purposes, Padres third base prospect Jedd Gyorko hit 18 home runs in the Cal League last year, and he hit .365-.429-.638, yet Arenado is considered the better prospect. I wonder if the prospect experts are too high on Arenado.

Yankees catcher/DH Jesus Montero will probably be the Yankees everyday DH in 2012, while catching maybe once a week, if that. But, make not mistake about it, he should hit and provide plenty of value for fantasy owners hitting in the solid Yankee lineup. The big question remains whether fantasy sites will give him catcher eligibility this year. I drafted Montero in the FakeTeams Dynasty League with the hope that he will, but would be fine if he is not.

The Giants will move outfielder Gary Brown to AA in 2012, and there will be many eyes on him as he will be hard pressed to duplicate his breakout 2011 season. With that said, he has all the tools to be a solid leadoff hitter capable of stealing 35+ bases in the big leagues.

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Comments

For comparison purposes

Jedd Gyorko is two and a half YEARS older than Arenado. Its not worth much to simply compare their stats and say who is the better prospect.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 3, 2012 9:52 AM EST reply actions

Its the Cal League...

Its hardly worth comparing any hitters Cal League Stats, because they aren’t indicative of a players true talent or power. Grant Green hit 20 HRs in the Cal League in 2010 for heavens sake. The Cal League inflates a players ISO and garners a tremendous amount of false hope for prospects. The ISO drop for Gyorko alone from Cal(A+) to AA was .130! We will have to see how Arenado handles AA/AAA this season, but I think its premature to over-hype or highly rank a prospect based on Cal/AFL performance.

by Mr. Homerun on Jan 3, 2012 10:23 AM EST up reply actions

I completely agree

but when comparing Gyorko/Arenado, age is a HUGE factor that cannot be overlooked. Same with Grant Green. He was 23 years old when he hit 20 home runs in the Cal league. Arenado isn’t going to turn 21 til April. No doubt the Cal League inflates numbers in most ballparks, but I would still say Nolan deserves much of the hype, most of which is around his improved defense and potential to stay at third.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 3, 2012 10:40 AM EST up reply actions

Also

I wasn’t trying to over-hype or highly rank Arenado, just mention the difference between him and Gyorko. I personally would rank him somewhere in the 30-50 range of prospects. I think that is fair.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 3, 2012 10:44 AM EST up reply actions

And another thing

Arenado’s ISO interestingly went down since last year. Probably means he’s on a downward trend and heading for failure.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 3, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

good point

I did not look at their ages…..but still, a sub .500 SLG in the Cal League for a power hitting third baseman? MAybe I am being too harsh here, but I really expected a better SLG.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 3, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions

Who told you

he was a power hitting 3B? Sure the high amount of doubles give you hope that he might be in the future but he is progressing perfectly.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 3, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

aren't third baseman

power hitters, for the most part?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 3, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

Well yes, but

that doesn’t mean a 20 year old hitting 20 hr in the Cal league is disappointing.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 3, 2012 8:36 PM EST up reply actions

YOUR BIGGEST MISTAKE

just because the Cal League is offensive heavy doesn’t mean every home park is. Bakersfield’s HR park factor for RHB is 124 (StatCorner). Stockton 137. High Desert 160.

Guess what Modesto is….just guess. no…lower, lower…..still lower… try 40. FORTY. Arenado’s home park limits home runs like no other park on the planet. PetCo Park checks in at 95.

So yes, you are missing quite a lot here, Ray. The kid was one of the youngest in the entire league and was near the league leaderboards despite playing half his games in a park that limits HR to RH 12 times more relative to average than PetCo Park.

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 4, 2012 12:05 PM EST via Android app up reply actions