This post is the 11th in a series of rankings catered specifically to fantasy baseball head-to-head points leagues and the third of three focused on starting pitchers.
All pitchers in this post and future points league rankings are based on these scoring values:
(W x 7) + (SV x 7) + (IP x 3) + (K x 0.5) - (ER x 2) - (H x 1) - (BB x 1) = Total
Read more on drafting starting pitchers for points leagues here.
Rankings after the jump:
2012 Fantasy Baseball H2H Points League Starting Pitcher Rankings: 51-100
51) Colby Lewis, TEX
2011 Points Scored: 294
Colby Lewis saw his K/9 rate drop while at the same time leading the AL in home runs (35) in 2011. But, he is as good a source for low-teen wins as anyone at this point in the draft considering the Rangers’ high-powered offense.
52) Matt Harrison, TEX
2011 Points Scored: 296
Similar to Lewis, Matt Harrison’s value lies in his team’s ability to earn him wins. While he doesn’t offer the same strikeout potential as Lewis, he is more reliable in terms of ERA.
53) Brandon McCarthy, OAK
2011 Points Scored: 272
While he offers very little opportunity for a high win total, Brandon McCarthy doesn’t give up home runs and doesn’t walk hitters. If he is able to reach 200 IP in 2012 he could very easily finish in the Top 50.
54) John Danks, CWS
2011 Points Scored: 182
It’s a safe bet that John Danks won’t start 2012 with a 0-8 record like he did in 2011 and everything should be downhill from there as he improved his K/BB, lowered his BB% and survived a terribly unlucky and uncharacteristic .315 BABIP.
55) Mark Buehrle, MIA
2011 Points Scored: 286
While he is anything but exciting, there are few pitchers more consistent than Mark Buehrle.
56) Ted Lilly, LAD
2011 Points Scored: 278
See Buehrle, Mark above.
57) Vance Worley, PHI
2011 Points Scored: 267
There’s a chance his K/9 rate returns to his minor league average and his 0.68 GB/FB is somewhat concerning considering he pitches his home games at Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, but Vance Worley is in line for another 50 IP or more in 2012 for a team that won 102 games in 2011.
58) Ivan Nova, NYY
2011 Points Scored: 281
He doesn’t strike out enough hitters and he walks too many, but thanks to an impressive 1.17 GB/FB rate, Ivan Nova is able to keep the ball in the park and himself in a position to earn wins.
59) RA Dickey, NYM
2011 Points Scored: 276
RA Dickey offers minimal strikeouts or potential for wins, but his control is phenomenal and he keeps both his ERA and WHIP in check due to his knuckleball.
60) Jeremy Hellickson, TB
2011 Points Scored: 324
Don’t expect a repeat of 2011 for Jeremy Hellickson as his .230 BABIP is hardly sustainable and his low K/9 and high walk rate don’t bode well for his ERA going forward.
61) Ryan Vogelsong, SF
2011 Points Scored: 331
Similar to Hellickson, it seems unlikely that Ryan Vogelsong can repeat his 2011 season considering his .285 BABIP, 3.67 FIP (compared to his 2.71 ERA) and 5 W in non-quality starts (it’s hard enough to get a W pitching a shutout for the Giants).
62) Max Scherzer, DET
2011 Points Scored: 277
His win and strikeout potential comes at the cost of a high WHIP (1.30 career) and HR/9 (1.1 career), but there’s a chance Max Scherzer could be a steal if he returns to his 2010 performance.
63) Mike Leake, CIN
2011 Points Scored: 260
He doesn’t offer much in the way of strikeouts and his 1.2 HR/9 is troublesome considering his home stadium and others in the NL Central, but Mike Leake limited his BB% in 2011 and a solid 0.95 GB/FB that could lead to wins pitching for Cincinnati’s high-powered offense.
64) Jair Jurrjens, ATL
2011 Points Scored: 276
Injuries continue to be an issue for Jair Jurrjens and affected him once again in 2011, but were he able to maintain anything close to the elite level he performed at to start the season points would likely come in bunches for the 26 year old.
65) Clay Buchholz, BOS
2011 Points Scored: 134
Clay Buchholz was unable to repeat his 2010 season thanks to an early back injury that sidelined him for the rest of the season. The injury could be an issue going forward and he offers limited strikeout potential, but, if healthy, he could be a good source of teen wins or approach 20 as he did in ’10.
66) Jhoulys Chacin, COL
2011 Points Scored: 255
In his first full season, Jhoulys Chacin struck out less hitters and walked the most in the NL, but at only 24 years old and pitching for a premiere offense like the Rockies’ he remains relevant thanks to an impressive 1.28 GB/FB.
67) Neftali Feliz, TEX
2011 Points Scored: 327
Like all other Rangers’ starters, Neftali Feliz should offer double-digit wins and he could provide a solid K/9, but his control is suspect and he’s likely to take his lumps as he transitions from the bullpen to the rotation.
68) Chris Sale, CWS
2011 Points Scored: 189
See Feliz, Neftali above. Chris Sale should offer plenty of strikeouts, but it will take time to adjust to the routine of a starting pitcher and the White Sox don’t offer the same run support as the Rangers.
69) Gavin Floyd, CWS
2011 Points Scored: 262
Gavin Floyd’s ERA is headed in the wrong direction and he hasn’t reached 200 IP in three seasons now, but, his WHIP and BB% both dropped last season and he should offer a consistent source of 10-12 wins and 150 strikeouts.
70) Trevor Cahill, ARZ
2011 Points Scored: 222
There should be much more run support for Trevor Cahill in Arizona than in Oakland and his 1.27 GB/FB rate should play well in Chase Field, but, he walks too many hitters and doesn’t strike out enough.
71) Bud Norris, HOU
2011 Points Scored: 230
Despite limiting his BB% in 2011, Bud Norris still walks too many hitters and he doesn’t offer much chance for more than 8-10 wins, but his K/9 is legit and he’s in the middle of his prime.
72) Ricky Nolasco, MIA
2011 Points Scored: 200
There’s no bigger head-scratcher than Ricky Nolasco and now his strikeout rate is on the decline, but his .340 BABIP is due for a regression and his 3.54 FIP was 1.14 less than his ERA, meaning with a little luck and his strikeouts returning there’s a chance for wins and points in Miami.
73) Jonathon Niese, NYM
2011 Points Scored: 187
Before an oblique injury landed him on the DL, Jonathon Niese had reduced his BB%, increased his SO% and kept the ball on the ground. He offers little in the way of strikeouts, but his .333 BABIP should regress and he won’t hurt you with BB or HR in spacious Citi-Field.
74) Edwin Jackson, FA
2011 Points Scored: 257
A lot of Edwin Jackson’s value will depend on what team he ends up on, but, what we do know is that his .330 BABIP was fairly unlucky and he was able to reduce his BB% in 2011.
75) Johan Santana, NYM
2011 Points Scored: NA
If healthy and able to return to his former self, you won’t find a bigger steal at the draft than Johan Santana.
76) Jake Peavy, CWS
2011 Points Scored: 133.5
See Santana, Johan.
77) Roy Oswalt, FA
2011 Points Scored: 176.5
See Santana, Johan. See Peavy, Jake.
78) Kyle Lohse, STL
2011 Points Scored: 316
Kyle Lohse showed what he could do with a full, healthy season and a little luck in 2011, but there’s no reason to bet on either in 2012 as he’s only reached 200 IP twice in his career and his .271 BABIP is likely to increase.
79) Brett Myers, HOU
2011 Points Scored: 210
He is only a season removed from 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 180 K in 2010 so there’s the chance Brett Myers rebounds as his second half of 2011 was much better than the first.
80) Randy Wolf, MIL
2011 Points Scored: 291
There should be a chance for low-teen wins again for Randy Wolf in Milwaukee, but his K/9 continues to decline and his control isn’t elite, meaning if things go bad, they could go really bad since his career 1.1 HR/9 isn’t for the faint of heart.
81) Bruce Chen, KC
2011 Points Scored: 225
There’s little exciting about Bruce Chen, but he’s due for an additional 40 IP or more in 2012 which could lead to a point total close to 300 if he limits his walks and HR.
82) Chris Capuano, LAD
2011 Points Scored: 220
After years of rehab, Chris Capuano finally put together a full season again in 2011 and impressed with a 8.1 K/9 and 3.17 K/BB that lead to a new contract with the Dodgers in the offseason.
83) Jeff Niemann, TB
2011 Points Scored: 210
When healthy in 2011, Jeff Niemann posted 11-5 record and good K/BB rate for the season and a solid 3.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the second half.
84) Juan Nicasio, COL
2011 Points Scored: 71
After suffering perhaps the scariest injury of the 2011 season, Juan Nicasio appears to be on pace to return for opening day and impressed over 13 starts with an excellent SO% and BB% for the Rockies.
85) Chad Billingsley, LAD
2011 Points Scored: 213
Nothing worked for Chad Billingsley as both his BB% and SO% headed in the wrong direction and his WHIP sat at an ugly 1.45, but, he is still in his prime, pitches in a premiere pitcher’s park and could be due for a turnaround.
86) Josh Tomlin, CLE
2011 Points Scored: 255
Very few pitchers offer strikeouts at this point and Josh Tomlin is no different, but like many this late, he doesn’t walk many batters and his WHIP is manageable.
87) Tim Stauffer, SD
2011 Points Scored: 237
He isn’t the same pitcher on the road and he’s never exciting no matter where he is, but Tim Stauffer keeps the ball on the ground fairly well and doesn’t allow many free passes.
88) Joe Saunders, ARZ
2011 Points Scored: 258
Signs pointed to luck for Joe Saunders in 2011 with a 4.78 FIP 1.09 over his ERA and a .275 BABIP, but then again, he did suffer four losses in quality starts and could’ve had another three wins had the bullpen saved his lead.
89) Luke Hochevar, KC
2011 Points Scored: 220
He has a solid K/BB and the Royals improving lineup offers the potential for run support.
90) Mike Minor/Julio Teheran, ATL
2011 Points Scored: 107/NA
Monitor this battle in spring training as the Braves history of top-flight pitching prospects is as good as any in the MLB and whoever wins the #5 spot inherits a solid offense, excellent bullpen support and a pitcher-friendly home stadium.
91) Homer Bailey, CIN
2011 Points Scored: 178
He has yet to pitch in over 140 innings in his career and has an ERA close to 5.00, but his K/9 is exceptional and he is only 26 years old. If Homer Bailey could ever put the health issues behind him, there could be a potential fantasy stud in the middle of the Reds’ rotation.
92) Erik Bedard, PIT
2011 Points Scored: 170
There’s a lot of room for points thanks to Erik Bedard’s move to the NL and his K/9, but, who am I kidding, the guy simply cannot stay healthy long enough to really matter.
93) Josh Collmenter, ARZ
2011 Points Scored: 252
There’s little chance he repeats his .255 BABIP and if hitters figure out his quirky delivery things could turn bad fast for Collmenter in 2012, but he walks almost no one and there is the potential for wins in Arizona.
94) Carlos Zambrano, MIA
2011 Points Scored: 149
There’s a chance a change of scenery could do Carlos Zambrano some good.
95) Zach Britton, BAL
2011 Points Scored: 151
Zach Britton entered 2011 with a 5-1 bang and left with a whimper, but he is only 24 years old and should find his way into the Orioles rotation to start the season once again.
96) Phil Hughes, NYY
2011 Points Scored: 54
There’s really only one reason Phil Hughes make the Top 100, his uniform has pinstripes on it.
97) Francisco Liriano, MIN
2011 Points Scored: 120
He’s battled injuries and inconsistency for three seasons now, but at times, such as his no-hitter vs. the White Sox last season, Francisco Liriano shows dominating potential that’s worth a pick this late.
98) Edinson Volquez, SD
2011 Points Scored: 69
Edinson Volquez returned from Tommy John surgery only a year and a half ago and showed elite potential in 2008 prior to the injury. He now pitches in Petco where his 1.6 HR/9 from last season could seriously decline.
99) Jorge De La Rosa, COL
2011 Points Scored: 112
He won’t offer a high point total, but if he returns sometime shortly after the All-Star break and looks serviceable, Jorge De La Rosa could be a key cog in a H2H playoff push.
100) Brett Anderson, OAK
2011 Points Scored: 86.5
See De La Rosa, Jorge above.
Is there a starting pitcher that didn't make the Top 100 that you're excited about? Feel free to comment on these rankings or ask any fantasy baseball or points league question below.