Fantasy Baseball Thoughts: Prince Follows the King to the American League; Power Bats at a Premium in NL-Only Leagues
Well, if you didn't know that Scott Boras was the best agent in all of sports, now you do. When everyone was saying Prince Fielder would not get an 8, 9 or 10 year deal, with some saying he may not get a 6 or 7 year deal, Boras took advantage of the knee injury suffered by Tigers DH Victor Martinez and landed Fielder a 9 year, $214 million contract this afternoon. All this after Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski said last week that he would love Fielder on the Tigers, but it would be highly unlikely. I guess he's allowed to change his mind.
I am shocked that Fielder received a 9 year offer, let alone an 8 year offer. I was thinking that either the Nationals or Rangers would sign him to a 7 year, $168 million deal. My guess is that the Nationals may have upped their offer to an 8 year offer and the Tigers one upped them by going 9 years. What is even more shocking is that Boras got this type of deal this late in the offseason, when many teams are rounding out their rosters, and getting set for pitchers and catchers in less than a month.
My thoughts on the fantasy impact of this deal after the jump:
My initial thoughts after reading about this deal was where is Miguel Cabrera going to play? I thought DH would make sense, and that very well could be his best spot, but ESPN and SiriusXMs JIm Bowden speculated the following:
Does anyone think Miggy can still play third base? He hasn't played third base since 2008 when he played 14 games there, but he very well could gain third base eligibility this season. Some leagues have a 10 game eligibility requirement for games played in the current year, so he could gain eligibility sometime in April or May if in fact he does play there.
Should he gain third base eligibility he would be my top ranked third baseman in 2012, ahead of Blue Jays outfielder/third baseman Jose Bautista and Evan Longoria. Robert handled the third base rankings for us, so I am not sure what his thoughts are.
Now, as for Prince Fielder, I ranked him as my 4th ranked first baseman in AL-only leagues, and I think I would keep him there, behind only teammate Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez, and just ahead of Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira.
In my overall first base rankings, I ranked Fielder at #5, and, again, I will leave him there, with Reds first baseman Joey Votto ahead of him in 4th.
This news today could have serious implications for NL-only leagues this season, as power will be at a premium in a big way. I have written about this before, but think about the loss of power the National League has experienced this offseason:
1. Albert Pujols signs with the Angels
2. Ryan Howard recovering from a ruptured achilles tendon, and could be out till June
3. Ryan Braun testing positive for taking some banned substance, and could miss the first 50 games of the season
4. Prince Fielder signs with the Tigers
That makes 4 of the top 7 home run hitters from 2011 either leaving the NL, or out for at least two months of the season. All of this news looked at together will result in guys like Mike Stanton, Dan Uggla, Michael Morse and Jay Bruce probably getting drafted much earlier in NL-only drafts this year.
A couple other things:
- Will losing out on Fielder result in the Nationals extending third baseman Ryan Zimmerman in the next week or so?
- Will the Nationals desire for another left-handed bat in their lineup cause them to bring prospect Bryce Harper up north with them come April?
- National League starters just got a slight bump in value this offseason, with aces like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw, among others, capable of duplicating their tremendous 2011 seasons. Power is down across baseball, but even moreso in the NL this offseason.
- Like I told another owner this afternoon, when hitting is down like it has been the last few seasons, ace starters gain value because they are capable of putting up ERAs in the low 2.00s and WHIP around 1.00-1.05. And that is very valuable.
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Scott Boras
Is there a more influential figure in sports that’s not an owner, GM, coach or player than Scott Boras?
I can’t stand the man (well, more so what impact he has on the league), but, I must give credit where credit is due and say that he is simply amazing at getting his players paid. Nine years is too many and $214 is too much and both are even more shocking considering how late in the FA period we are, and yet, here we are … and to a team with potentially the best or second best 1B in baseball! Unbelievable.
My question to you or anyone else who feels like answering,
Does this mean that Miggy is the number one player for next year? And Should i keep him over Kemp (as long as it looks like he will get 3b)
Down 2 in the bottom of the ninth?
Lets Bring in Willie Harris!
You can only keep one?
There isn’t another player you could let go and keep those two? If not, then I would keep Cabrera, but I know Ray is a big Kemp fan so he might disagree.
I can keep one player in the first 2 rounds
15 team league. Kemp was 25. Strange rules i know, but i was not there when the league was founded.
Down 2 in the bottom of the ninth?
Lets Bring in Willie Harris!
tough one
Miggy has the longer track record, but Kemp has similar power and can steal at least 25 bases per year. I would keep Kemp, but I am a Dodgers fan, and I own Kemp in two NL-only leagues, so I am biased.
Anyone else care to opine on this?
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 24, 2012 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
Cabrera and it's not close
If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.
by dudedudedude on Jan 24, 2012 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
ha
I didn’t expect anything different. Care to explain your reasoning?
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 24, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
Cabrera was better than Kemp at 1st Base
This only improves his value.
If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.
by dudedudedude on Jan 24, 2012 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
I like Miggy
but how was he better than Kemp before this? Do you assume Kemp will regress and by how much? Kemp had more HRs, RBI, runs, SBs than Miggy in 2011, and a better WAR.
If you watched Kemp as much as I do, you would have seen a massive improvement in his approach at the plate last year. I think people are too quick to say he will regress this season. I think he can go 30-30 this season, as he is still young, at 27, and had a renewed focus last year.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 24, 2012 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
I don't assume he will regress, I know he will
There is no way in hell Kemp puts up a season like the one he just did. We know what we get from Cabrera. Stolen bases are overrated.
If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.
by dudedudedude on Jan 24, 2012 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
because why?
you know he will? that’s absurd.
so, the fact that he is only 27, just starting his peak years in the big leagues, has shown he is a high BABIP hitter, with power and speed, and you say he will regress? There is no chance he goes 30-100-30-.300 in 2012?
I think he can get there again…..no problem.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 24, 2012 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
AGAIN
He’s a high BABIP hitter, not an absurd one. .380 is absurd, ergo, he will not repeat.
If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.
by dudedudedude on Jan 24, 2012 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
miggy's babip
what adjective would you use for Miggy’s .365 babip last yr? I think Miggy’s dual eligibility (1b/3b) maybe a double edge sword cause I definately see Miggy huyrting himself attempting to simulate a MLB 3B….
again
so a drop to .360 will kill has value?
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 24, 2012 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
Try a drop in the .340 range like his xBABIP suggests
Cabrera hits the ball like a rocket. I wish I had access to hit f/X just for players like him and Votto. Will Cabrera regress? Yes. I would easily take the under on his .365 BABIP but his career success is more than enough for me to take him over Kemp.
If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.
by dudedudedude on Jan 25, 2012 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
Have to go with Cabrera
Ill take the guy who has done it longer and who also will have dual position eligibility. Not saying Kemp is one and done, but right now I would say Cabrera is automatic. Can’t say that about Kemp
Kemp
you need to watch him more then….and he has speed.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 25, 2012 6:02 AM EST up reply actions
and
you are assuming Kemp won’t continue to mature as a hitter where he reduces his Ks and increases in BBs.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 25, 2012 6:03 AM EST up reply actions
Kemp
Should be pretty much at this peak – he’ll be twenty-six and a half at the start of next season. The thing with him is that he has more variance than, say, the big first base options. You may get 2011 again, but it is unlikely, or you could get 2010 again (also unlikely). You are probably going to get something around .290/30/30, and almost 100R/RBI, but because Kent strikes out a lot (and the K-rate is pretty static) he’s always going to be depending on the BABIP gods to maintain a good average. It seems unlikely that he has further growth as a hitter.
we will see
he’s only 27 yrs old, so he could continue to mature as a hitter.
Your projections make him the #1 pick for me.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 25, 2012 9:38 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not
assuming anything, that’s my point. Kemp had a monster year last year, no doubt. But, Cabrera has had a monster year in 7 of his last 8 years. Kemp’s 2011 was pretty much the same as Cabrera’s 2010, except for the steals. I would just like to see Kemp do it again and again before I take him over someone who has done it again and again. However, if I was a Dodger fan, I’d take Kemp in a heartbeat.
Stolen bases are overrated
maybe in h2h points league or if your reaching for an Emilio Bonifacio but when it comes w/ elite power/BA I think its underrated
+1
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 24, 2012 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
Or you can grab players like BJ Upton way later than he should be going
If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.
by dudedudedude on Jan 25, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
Miguel Cabrera
If Miguel Cabrera does move to 3B, he would be my #1 in terms of points league rankings and while I already had him as my #1 1B, this move only solidifies that.
Cabrera
Is a pretty bad first baseman. He’s going to struggle badly at third, given that he was basically moved off the position several years ago because he couldn’t handle it. I wonder if they make this work by DHing someone till V-Mart is back, and then trading V-Mart. I would suggest Martinez catching is less bad than Cabrera at 3rd, but then they lose Avila’s bat.
Vmart
is signed thru 2014 and Miggy thru 2015 I believe. I think Vmart would be easier to trade as he makes less, but he is older than Miggy as well. They will have a tough time dealing either one of them.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 24, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
Trading VMart is the only option that makes sense if they won’t keep everyone. It’s a bit pointless signing Prince and then trading away Miggy to fit him in. They must have a plan to get them both into the lineup, but if it’s Miggy at 3rd, I think it could be really ugly. If they go with Fielder-?-Peralta-Cabrera, Rick Porcello is doomed.

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