How to Draft a Team: dudedudedude Style

Welcome to my crazy, illogical and confusing thoughts. During this long journey throughout more words than you're willing to read, you may feel the need to shake your head multiple times, at which point I would like to remind you that I am not responsible for any whip lash that may occur.

I was doing some mock drafts the other day and noticed some pretty shocking mistakes managers were making when drafting their respective teams. Building the optimal roster is far from easy, and you can argue that there is no "correct" way to do it, but there are definitely some things you should consider. I'm sure many of you will disagree with 99% of the stuff I'm about to say, because some of this crazy and it's fun to argue, but try a couple mock drafts with these ideas in mind and see how much you like your roster.

1) Don't be a follower: This one is simple. You see Fielder, Gonzalez and Votto all fly off the board at the end of the first base when you start to realize how shallow the position is getting. You freak out and draft Konerko three rounds earlier than you would normally because you are scared of having Morales as your starter. While no one dreams of having Morales as their first basemen, panicking and following the trends will not due your roster any favors. Sure, you have Konerko, a solid option no doubt, yet you overpaid for him while the others managed to get Fielder, Gonzalez and Votto at fair market value. Suddenly, you're losing your draft.

The further along you move in the draft, the smaller the disparity between positional numbers becomes. In simpler terms, the difference between the 10th and 11th first basemen is not worth reaching for, while the difference between the 2nd and 3rd might be. There are the obvious exceptions, but very few positions in baseball have such a sudden drop at a given point that makes a reach necessary in order to keep up with those who have already drafted a given position.

If there's 12 teams in your league, and every team has a shortstop, forget about the position. It doesn't matter if you get that guy now or in 10 rounds, he will still be there later on. You can argue that someone may draft a second shortstop but the gap between the 12th and 13th best shortstop is almost unnoticeable. You gain nothing out of rushing to grab that player.

2) Hype sucks; don't buy into it: "Can't miss" prospects show up every year, and they also disappear every year. Yet in every draft, someone insists on drafting one of those prospects thinking he will lead him to victory. Let it be known, this is the same guy that quits mid season when his team is sucking. Does this mean Mike Trout is a bad player to have? Absolutely not. It does however mean that you shouldn't draft him over consistent veterans, just because his upside might be higher. Having Matt Moore might be nice, and I'm sure he will do just fine, but the risk is much higher on some of these young players. If someone wants Moore in the 3rd round, let him have him, and draft similar production 10 rounds later in Josh Beckett. Can Moore be better than Beckett? Absolutely, and I would place money on that, but Beckett can provide much more surplus value than Moore can relative to ADP.

Moore has 2nd round upside. He could conceivably put up 200 innings, a sub 3 ERA, and 200 strikeouts and no one would be all that surprised. But he could also get absolutely rocked by some of the patient hitters in the AL East and end up with a season comparable to Tim Lincecum's rookie season. The expected value of a prospect in the majors is significantly below his true upside, which means you should not be the guy to draft him expecting the world out of him in his first season.

3) Some injuries are your friend: That sounds like a mighty depressing statement, but there is tons of surplus value to be had in players coming off a season filled with injuries. Jose Reyes came at a huge discount to the Marlins in real life, and you can employ a similar strategy in fantasy baseball. Every injury is different, and some last longer than others, but the number of injuries that have long lasting impact on players is fewer than most would think. My favorite example is Josh Hamilton. One of the best players in baseball is lasting a few extra rounds because of that awful injury prone label. It's tough to argue against it, he never plays a full season of games, but that doesn't make him any more likely to get hurt than other players. I told you some of these ideas are crazy.

Hamilton sprained his wrist in 2007, strained him hamstring on two separate occasions in 2007, has knee inflammation in 2008, gets a hand contusion in 2008, as well as foot contusion in 2008 add to the list. In 2009, Hamilton strains an Achilles, while also managing to strain his groin in the same season. 2010 wasn't much better with a shoulder contusion and another hand contusion from being hit by a pitch. In 2011, he fell victim to a broken arm and hernia issues. I think you get the idea by now. Hamilton gets hurt, and saying a lot is probably an understatement. Josh Johnson gets hurt a lot too, seeing as his shoulder has been bothering him for what seems like ages. Notice any differences between these two players though? Hamilton gets hurt with a lot of freaky injuries, while Johnson has the same issues over and over again. One has to wonder what's up with Hamilton, maybe he's just not drinking enough milk like everyone's parents always told them to, but seeing the nature of his injuries, I'm no less concerned about his injury history than Alex Gordon who gets drafted in the same range.

The moral of this long winded and most likely confusing story is that "injury prone" (a term I despise) players are discounts at the draft table. Let's use my buddy Hamilton as an example once again. I think we can all agree on the talent he has. Hamilton in a 150+ game season has a great chance to put up first round value. Hamilton in a 130 game season still has a great chance to put up 3rd or 4th round value, which is right where his ADP is. His upside is high, and his floor is where his ADP is, that should be a risk everyone is willing to take if he falls. The list of players like this goes on and on.

4) Some injuries are not your friend: Hands up if you're confused? I am too. I just told you injuries can be a good thing, and now I'm about to tell you the exact opposite. The primary victim? Tommy John Surgery. It's no longer the death sentence it used to be, but it's far from 100% successful. It's easy to look at Adam Wainwright and see a great pitcher. He was a second or third round draft pick last season before the injury and was looking like a top five pitcher in baseball. Talent wise, it's still there, but it might be hard to find right away. Anyone player golf? After that long winter with no golf, that first round in the spring isn't pretty. It will be a year before Wainwright is successfully able to throw a baseball at full strength, longer than your golf offseason. Add in the fact that his arm was basically a noodle for a couple of months and suddenly he's not nearly as attractive as he used to be. The research on the effects of Tommy John Surgery is well known, yet people are still willing to chase that pitcher hoping he regains his true ability.

In a keeper league, this is totally different, and Tommy John actually becomes your friend, but that's an entirely different can of worms.

5) Relievers are overvalued: Mariano Rivera has been damn good for the past 15 seasons, and far from overvalued but as a whole, drafting relievers early is a mistake. "But Craig Kimbrel was so good last season, he is a stud!" I've heard it all. Yes, Kimbrel was fantastic last season, and he would be more than welcome to anchor my bullpen, if his ADP was about 30405930 picks later than it actually is. What's the difference between Mariano Rivera and Sean Marshall? Opportunity. I can't predict opportunity, since I am unable to predict the stupidity of how managers use a bullpen. We do know one thing though; relievers get hurt and relievers suck year in and year out. 16 relievers started the year as closers, and ended the year as closers. That's a 50% success rate. I don't like those odds. I won't be the guy to draft a closer early when I can still get players who have a greater chance of reaching their ADP, and neither should you. Save's is one category, worry about ratios and pick up which ever player get the closer job when their predecessor is hurt and/or ineffective.

6) Sabermetric analysis is your friend: It's not 1960 anymore, ERA and Average are deeply flawed stats, but they still exist in 99% of leagues. This is good news for you. Take advantage of it. You can argue until you're blue in the face that xFIP and SIERA is dumb because it makes your favorite player look worse than ERA does, but it doesn't mean they are wrong. In fact, xFIP and SIERA and much better predictors in determining a player's future ERA then ERA itself. Yes, Justin Verlander is a good pitcher, but, no, he is not able to keep a historically low BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) because of his talent. The year a pitcher has a lucky BABIP and LOB% (Strand Rate), everyone is quick to find reasons why that is suddenly his true talent level. The opposite is also true; people are quick to find reasons for decline once a pitcher has an unlucky season.

It's all about surplus value. Fun fact: Josh Beckett is the same pitcher in 2010 as he was in 2011, but he was just unlucky. He went from being washed up, to a fantasy #2 while posting extremely similar numbers, apart from ERA. It's crazy how this stuff works, but seeing as I am no psychologist, I can't figure out what people are thinking, I just prefer to use this to my advantage.

The same can be said about batters. Batters have much more control over their BABIP then pitchers do, but it doesn't mean their numbers are entirely sustainable. Matt Kemp has a history of high BABIP's and for good reason. He hits the ball hard, has speed and hits a fair amount of line drives. All things considered, he was still extremely lucky last season and we can expect some regression. Draft him with high, yet tempered expectations. Evan Longoria is a player who is on the other side of the spectrum, getting unlucky with balls in play last season, which means he is cheaper than he should be at the draft table. All batted ball info is easily accessible on FanGraphs.

7) Don't let bias get in the way of value: I have strong dislikes for many players across baseball for various reasons (here's looking at you Verlander for actually thinking you should have won the MVP) but you can't let that stand in the way of getting a good deal. If Verlander fell 11 rounds, you bet I'd take him without hesitation. You wan't production. Ian Kinsler is one of my favorite players, but that doesn't make his home runs count any more than those of Robinson Cano.

8) The nth best player at position X is not equal to the nth best player position Y: This is one of the biggest mistakes I see in drafts. "If I can't get the best starting pitcher, I'll make it up for by getting the best relief pitcher." Wrong. Whatever rank you are at a position doesn't matter. At this point, the 15th best first basemen is probably better than the 5th best SS. This means if you're left with the 5th best shortstop and the 5th best first basemen on the board, they are not equal assets.

9) Pretend you are investing money into stocks: When is the last time you talked to your broker and asked him to place a large amount of retirement money in an extremely risky portfolio? You should treat your baseball team the same way. If the investment is minimal, by all means, swing for the fences, but with large amounts of retirement money on the line, go for the safe bet. It's said like a broken record like a broken record like a broken record, but you can't lose your draft in the first couple rounds, but you can lose it.

Well, that was fun. 2275 words I could have used on my history essay, but I'm a huge geek so this was more fun. All spelling and grammar mistakes are on purpose to see if any of you are still awake and/or breathing after this enlightening experience (there was no way I was going to proof-read all of this). I expect all of you to take this as gospel, no exceptions.