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Five Struggling Former Prospects You Shouldn't Give Up On

The world of prospectdom can be a pain in the butt. When a highly-touted prospect rips through the minors and then arrives on the major league scene with high expectations heaped on him, I guess it's only natural for fans to spend lots of energy spewing invective and hatred if said prospect fails to immediately produce. We you're told by myriad scouting mavens and drunk loudmouths at the barstool that Joe Hotshot will be the new Ted Williams and guide your favorite team to the promised land, it's only natural to be disappointed if he comes up and struggles. That disappointment then turns into anger and feelings of betrayal. We fans are a fickle bunch.

However, a lot of talented players take some time to truly adjust to the big leagues. Not every player arrives and becomes an instant All-Star, like Ryan Braun or Albert Pujols. No matter how talented a player may be, sometimes it just doesn't click immediately, as even the jump from AAA to the bigs can be quite the difficult transition for some prospects. For certain players, it just takes a couple of years to get return on our emotional investment.

Take Alex Gordon. He was a super-prospect with the Royals after being drafted with the second pick in 2005, and he was touted as the next George Brett upon his arrival to the Show in 2007. He instantly struggled, was shipped back to the minors, then was shifted to the outfield. For four seasons, he didn't come anywhere close to living up to his promise, and for a bit it looked like it was too much to ask him to become the next Paul Schaal.

Of course, Gordon finally put it all together in 2011. Some prospects just take a bit of time to develop in the majors. You can include Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Rickie Weeks, and Matt Wieters on this list. After the jump, five former star prospects who you shouldn't give up on just quite yet.

Star-divide

1. Justin Smoak

Smoak was one of the prizes in the Mariners' haul for Cliff Lee in 2010, a big first baseman with a good plate approach and developing power. After a hot month of April, Smoak's 2011 quickly degenerated into a year of hell, as he battled a couple of hand injuries and then lost his father to cancer during the summer. So yes, it's understandable that he may have had other things on his mind as he struggled through a crappy year at the plate.

Despite all that, Smoak did show some of the good plate discipline that he'd exhibited in the minor leagues, and he finished the year strong. Safeco will do him no favors, but it's easy to chalk 2011 up as a lost season and give this former Baseball America top 15 prospect a mulligan and let him prove that his ceiling is higher than "better than Mitch Moreland". He should combine with the newly acquired Jesus Montero to give the Mariners some much-needed offensive thump in the middle of their lineup.

2. Pedro Alvarez

Alvarez was horrible last year. There's no disputing that. However, take a look at this similarly gawdawful line for a sec, put up by another power-hitting third baseman at a similar age:

.194/.324/.373, 136 strikeouts in 447 plate appearances.

That was Mike Schmidt in 1973, his first full season in the big leagues. I'm not saying Alvarez is going to be anywhere near as good as Schmidt. No one is that insane. Well, almost no one. I'm sure Scott Boras will tell you that Alvarez is Mike Schmidt v.2, or possibly even bigger than Jesus. As a slugging prospect with contact problems, though, it is heartening to know that Alvarez does at least have elite company when it comes to talented players who sucked big time when first getting their feet wet in the bigs.

Alvarez is known best for the signing deadline shenanigans in 2008, but there's a reason the Pirates were willing to fight it out with Boras to keep him. He wasn't a lame signability pick like Bryan Bullington. His struggles with breaking pitches have stunted his growth so far, but he's still young and, again, sometimes it takes players with his skills longer to figure out good major league offspeed stuff. He's a legit power source who is probably a swing tweak away from becoming a legit fantasy third baseman, at least until he inevitably moves across the diamond to first.

3. Travis Snider

Like Alvarez, Snider's struggles with breaking balls have eaten him alive thus far in his major league career. The best thing he has going for him is his age. It's hard to believe he'll only be 24 this year, but he broke in as a 20-year-old after completely destroying the minor leagues as a teenager. It's hard to imagine talent like that just magically disappears. If anything, his career thus far is proof that the guy in the white shirt was probably a bunch of baloney.

He may have been rushed to the majors, and scouts still like him, so think about drafting him late with the potential for a breakout. He has legit 30-homer potential if he can put it together. Now if only he'd shave off that ridiculous mustache.

4. Colby Rasmus

Rasmus's bout of Family Feud with Tony LaRussa in 2011 was well-documented, and that distraction may have led to Rasmus's down year. LaRussa's insistence on platooning Rasmus was stupid and self-immolating, but Rasmus struggled with the bat last year and was finally shipped off to Toronto. It was assumed that a change of scenery would revive him. It didn't. Rasmus was pretty bad after the trade, and had to watch from home as the Cards won the World Series without him.

Never mind that. Chalk his struggles with Toronto up to the vagaries of small sample size and prepare for a bounce back. He was awesome in 2010 and a full season with a clean slate should revive his bat. If he and Snider come back from the dead, the Blue Jays should put out one hell of a lineup in 2012.

5. Jed Lowrie

He isn't so young anymore (he's 28), but his career thus far has been so mangled by wrist injuries (and mono) that it's hard to tell exactly what he can do given a full season. He slugged .526 in an injury-plagued 2010 campaign for the Red Sox, hinting at what could be. The Astros will give him every chance to establish himself as a quality major league shortstop and I love his chances of at least becoming a good producer at a weak position. Provided, of course, he can stay healthy. Don't bet your house on that, but he's worth a late round pick if you're in need of a shortstop.

Poll
Which of these players will be the most productive in 2012?
Justin Smoak
111 votes
Pedro Alvarez
142 votes
Travis Snider
39 votes
Colby Rasmus
122 votes
Jed Lowrie
23 votes

437 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 13 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Snider

I like him, he is a local kid, but it looks like Thames has the leg up on the LF job and Encarnacion has the DH spot.

by Robinson Checo on Jan 20, 2012 11:06 PM EST reply actions  

Oh yeah,

I also really liked this post and hope you do more like them!

by Robinson Checo on Jan 20, 2012 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 21, 2012 1:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Glad to see the exclusion of Jason Heyward

He struggled, no doubt about it. But he was roughly a league-average outfielder in 2011 while battling shoulder injuries and hitting a billion grounders. If he’s healthy he should get back to raking this season….

by Undocorkscrew on Jan 21, 2012 1:03 AM EST reply actions  

Heyward

I seriously considered including him here, but left him off because I think his down year was so obviously caused by injury. I think people still generally perceive him as a star, or about to become one, at least.

Your writing is the only thing giving your alcoholism any credibility. -Stewie Griffin

by Paul Rice on Jan 21, 2012 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Smoak

I am on board with him breaking out this season

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 21, 2012 1:13 AM EST reply actions  

Snider is more than overrated

He doesn’t have nearly enough power or enough on base skills to do anything in the majors right now.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 21, 2012 2:57 AM EST reply actions  

and you base this on what, exactly?

the fact that the Blue Jays competely #@$%ed him up?

Snider needs a change of scenery in the worst way.

by JoelGuzman'sScout on Jan 21, 2012 5:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Blue Jays

aren’t the one’s who stand at the plate for every strikeout. He probably bases it on Snider not showing good on base skills in the majors leagues and how that has prevented him from doing anything in the majors so far…just a guess

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 21, 2012 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

You're hilarious

He plays a non-premium position and can’t make contact with a beach ball, let alone a baseball. The Jays didn’t screw him up, his lack of ability did.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 21, 2012 10:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Thames

is he the favorite to win the LF job this year? or is it the Rajai Davis?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 21, 2012 10:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Thames

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 21, 2012 10:50 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Smoak

I am with you and surprised at how far and quickly his stock has fallen in mock drafts i’ve seen or participated in.

by jintman1 on Jan 21, 2012 10:22 AM EST reply actions  

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