Ranking the Hitting Prospects: Rendon, Cespedes, Starling and Others

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 2, 2012 10:01 AM EST in 2012 Fantasy Prospect Rankings

I was reading the comments section of this article I posted on December 30th, and saw reader Highheat comment that he would like to see more of these type of articles, so let's discuss ranking the top hitting prospects today, and then maybe we can drill down to top hitting prospects by position in the next few days/weeks.

So how would you rank the following hitting prospects from the 2011 MLB draft, along with a couple guys who broke out in 2011:

Anthony Rendon, WAS

Yoennis Cespedes, TBD

Bubba Starling, KC

Jake Marisnick, TOR

Travis d'Arnaud, TOR

Xander Bogaerts, BOS

Cheslor Cuthbert, KC

Matt Adams, STL

My take after the jump:

I am going to stick with Rendon at the #1 ranking, and here is the rest of my ranking:

Anthony Rendon

Jake Marisnick

Travis d'Arnaud

Cheslor Cuthbert

Xander Bogaerts

Bubba Starling

Yoennis Cespedes

Matt Adams

As you can see, I am down on Cespedes a bit, but I think we will hear more about him once he finally becomes a free agent. Right now, according to MLB, he is not a free agent, as he still needs to get approval from MLB and the USA, so that could take a few more weeks.

Assuming Rendon can recover from his 2011 injuries, and he should, he could turn into a 20+ HR, .290 BA hitter in the big leagues. If he moves to second base, a BIG IF, he would have huge value in all leagues.

I ranked d'Arnaud higher than a few guys I like more as he is a catcher who could give fantasy owners 20+ HRs in his prime.

Marisnick could be one of the top prospects in baseball should he improve his power numbers. He hit .320-.392-.500 with 14 HRs, 77 RBI and 37 stolen bases in Low A in 2011. He doesn't strike out a lot (around 17%) and walks a good amount (8%), so the power could improve in 2012.

Cuthbert and Bogaerts are two 18 year old third baseman who tore up Low A in 2011, and could very well be in many Top 25 prospect lists in 2012.

Come this time in 2013, Starling could easily be atop this list should he hit well in 2012, but I am not sure where the Royals will start him this year. Low A sound about right?

So how would you rank these hitting prospects?

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Comments

Rankings

Adams doesn’t really belong in this group.

I think they split into three tiers:

Renodn/Cespedes.d’Arnaud
Marisnick/Starling/Bogaerts/Cuthbert
Adams

Putting Cespedes, who will get some sort of mid-eight figure deal, whether its $30, $40, $50 or $60 milion below a kid who’s never played pro ball yet, and who has a decent chance of flaming out totally, seems wrong to me. Even if some of his speed and defence doesn’t translate to MLB, you still have a powerful corner outfielder with good defence.

by A Behemoth on Jan 2, 2012 10:17 AM EST reply actions

maybe

but remember that Cespedes is 26 yrs old, while Starling is a teenager…..Starling has a chance to be a real star. Sickels gave him a A rating, which says a lot to me. Those are the reasons for my ranking here.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 2, 2012 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I take the point

But the fact that a major league ball club will commit, say, $50 million, to Cespedes also says a lot. Suppose Cespedes can stick in centre, and the speed and power comes through to MLB. Then you have a player who is a real star, but in a year or two.

The other thing is that Cespedes is much less likely to be a total bust – there are a lot of kids with a similar profile to Starling (maybe not the same level of tools, but five tool kids) who never manage to put it all together. I was somewhat surprised that John gave Starling a straight A to be honest – While I respect John, and his knowledge of prospects, that seems premature to me.

by A Behemoth on Jan 2, 2012 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

+1

I was surprised as well, but have a feeling John is a little more aggressive this year compared to others.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 2, 2012 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

Question

What is this? is it just a random group of hitting prospects that you decided to rank or is there some significance to this group. I can’t figure it out.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 2, 2012 11:03 AM EST via Android app reply actions

random group

do you have other suggestions…..let me know. Will post something later in the week.

I was thinking of doing a separate post to rank some of John Sickels’ B+ rated hitting prospects.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 2, 2012 11:05 AM EST up reply actions

In my dyno league

I have found that closeness to the majors is a much bigger factor than you would normally think or than it is for Sickels or BA when they do their rankings. In my league, as in most, you sign them contracts, so say you get 7-8 years out of drafting a minor league player, it is far more valuable to draft Bauer and get 6-7 years out of him than it is to draft Bundy or even Gerrit Cole and only get 4-6 years out of them.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 2, 2012 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

understood

and that is how it is my two of my keeper leagues as well.

let me know if there are others that you are considering.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 2, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

Well I already did my leagues minor league draft

but Profar, Martin, Gose, Olt, Brown, and Bell were all taken just this year and I would guess are still available in most other leagues as well.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 2, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

Disagree

Most of my leagues service time only starts when a player is promoted to the big leagues. Profar and Gose are gone in all of them. Brown and Olt in others, and Martin and Bell are generally available.

One thing that might be more useful would be to rank similar sorts of players – five tool outfielders, or shortstops that can hit or something like that.

by A Behemoth on Jan 2, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

I was thinking

about ranking by position…..an offshoot of the rankings Jason and I have posted over the last few weeks.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 2, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

Ceiling over closeness

While being closer to the big leagues is an advantage, if the guys ceiling is an MLB regular I will take an All Star ceiling higher even with the increased flameout factor.

by highheat on Jan 2, 2012 1:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

To a point

If you were in a league that had set contracts, and not just began when they reached the majors, I would for example take Bauer over Cole despite lower ceiling, but if you can get 1+ more years out of him it is worth it.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 2, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions

Both have ace potential though

Plus..being a Pirate is a -1 for me.

by highheat on Jan 2, 2012 3:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

That's not a great idea

You can’t predict how much time or innings pitchers will actually have. To say that Bauer will have 1+ more years than Cole is foolish.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 2, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

Well yeah maybe

it wasn’t the best example, but you get the idea. I mean Cole isn’t exactly far from the bigs either. What I meant to demonstrate is I didn’t mean picking someone like James Darnell over Nolan Arenado bc he was close to the majors.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 2, 2012 5:32 PM EST up reply actions