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Fantasy Baseball 2012: Top 25 Fantasy Players 25 and Under


Getting some inspiration from an article over at Hardball Times, Ray and I have put together our rankings of players who are 25 years or younger. These rankings are best viewed for dynasty leagues, as we have prepared them on the assumption of performance both in 2012 and going forward. As with their article, these rankings are for a standard 5x5 roto mixed league and all players ranked were born after 1/12/1986. You can find our lists below, and my thoughts after the jump.

Rank

Jason

Ray

1

Justin Upton

Justin Upton

2

Mike Stanton

Mike Stanton

3

Clayton Kershaw

Bryce Harper

4

Felix Hernandez

Andrew McCutchen

5

Stephen Strasburg

Clayton Kershaw

6

Brett Lawrie

Felix Hernandez

7

Andrew McCutchen

Eric Hosmer

8

Bryce Harper

Brett Lawrie

9

Mike Trout

Stephen Strasburg

10

Starlin Castro

Carlos Santana

11

Matt Moore

Matt Moore

12

Carlos Santana

Desmond Jennings

13

Eric Hosmer

Jay Bruce

14

Jay Bruce

Mike Trout

15

Desmond Jennings

Jesus Montero

16

Jesus Montero

Jason Heyward

17

Dustin Ackley

Starlin Castro

18

Jason Heyward

Matt Wieters

19

Yu Darvish

Buster Posey

20

Buster Posey

Madison Bumgarner

21

Pablo Sandoval

Yu Darvish

22

Logan Morrison

Logan Morrison

23

Craig Kimbrel

Pablo Sandoval

24

Elvis Andrus

Mat Latos

25

Freddie Freeman

Dustin Ackley

26

Ike Davis

Dee Gordon

Star-divide

  • Not a huge surprise here that #1 and #2 are Justin Upton and Mike Stanton. Upton is still just 24 years old, so he'll likely be at the top of this list again next year. What's not to like about a potential 30-30 outfielder who keeps getting better? Add to that a potential 50 homer bat that could be there as soon as this season, and it's an easy top 2.
  • Likely one of the biggest disagreements between myself and Ray on this list is Bryce Harper. I could very well be eating my words at this time next year, but I think Harper does not make the team out of Spring Training and may not be up until near the end of the season. He is probably very close to ready right now, but I have to imagine that the Nationals' minor league affiliates will have a coronary if he doesn't spend some more time in AA and AAA so they can cash in on his popularity. For me, the only thing keeping him from the #3 spot is the fact that I think you won't get much from him this season.
  • Another big difference is on Angels' OF Mike Trout. I think that the new staff in Anaheim is going to find a way to rid themselves of at least one of their excess outfielders, and get Trout legitimate playing time as soon as this year.
  • Starlin Castro also appears to be a bit of a lightning rod at the moment, and not just for his problems off the diamond. I think that of the group of young shortstops who fit the qualification (Castro, Elvis Andrus, Dee Gordon, Alcides Escobar), Castro has the highest ceiling for offensive production. I think we honestly could see Castro post a 15 HR, 30-35 SB, .300 season within the next 3.
  • I ranked the only reliever on either list, as I think Kimbrel is going to be the closer in Atlanta for many years. If he stays healthy (which is of course a huge caveat), I think he'll be good for 40+ saves, and 100+ strikeouts every year.

Let us know your thoughts - Are one (or both) of us insane? Is there someone you think should have been in our top 25 that was ignored? Let us hear it both here in the comments or via Twitter. You can follow me at @jasonsbaseball, and Ray at @faketeams.

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I want to say thank you for:

giving Mike Stanton more credit and not ranking Stras ahead of Kershaw

by xrayxtals on Jan 12, 2012 10:31 AM EST reply actions  

+1

the Strasburg ranking was the reason why I asked Jason if he wanted to do our own rankings here on FakeTeams.

The attached link to the THT rankings includes plenty of comments back and forth, and some are heated.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 12, 2012 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Stanton

I think that if the new stadium turns out to not be as much of a pitcher’s park as the old stadium, he could really put up some insane numbers.

by Jason Hunt on Jan 12, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Freddie Freeman over Matt Wieters?

Having Kimbrel over Bumgarner or Latos seems pretty insane when you consider how easy it is to find closers. Maybin should also be on this list.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 12, 2012 11:28 AM EST reply actions  

Maybin

if he wasn’t in Petco I would have. Then again, the Dodgers homer in me made me take Gordon over him

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 12, 2012 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Are we talking just fantasy?

Maybin just had his very first taste of success in the majors, and it was .264/.323/.393, 9 HR/40 RBI/82 R, 40 SB and 125 K/44 BB. Plus he’s almost 25, I wonder, what’s his peak? .280/.340/.400, 15 HR, 50 SB? Now, don’t get me wrong, that’s valuable, but is it top 25 on a list like this valuable to have a guy who is only SB and R, and a little bit of power? I’m not even a major Freddie Freeman fan, but he just hit 21 HR at the age of 21. That’s pretty impressive start.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 12, 2012 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

He's the same age as Jennings

And provides a fairly similar skill set yet Jennings gets a lot more love.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 12, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Of course

But it’s just a point to note.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 12, 2012 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybin is a great post-hype sleeper example. Struggled for so long to adjust to majors until last season, so people under-estimate him.

But he’s gotta give me more for me to trust he won’t be just a pretty set of stolen bases. I’d like to see another season of it.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 12, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions  

If he stayed in the minors, I'm more than confident that he could have put up Jennings like numbers

It’s just that he is not the flashy prospect anymore, and people love them some prospects.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 12, 2012 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybin

I had at #27 (just off the list) – I think he will show a bit more power this year, but Petco is hard to overcome. If I knew he were going to be playing somewhere else consistently, he’d be in the same range as Jennings.

by Jason Hunt on Jan 12, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions  

It's not as if the Trop is a hitter's paradise

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 12, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Bumgarner

Was at #28 for me. The more I think about it, Kimbrel might be a little too high.

by Jason Hunt on Jan 12, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions  

possibly

I want to see how he does in a full season in Chicago…..but he very well could. There was talk of him not handling big league fastballs though.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 12, 2012 11:37 AM EST up reply actions  

I saw the same talk and then I saw the talk back that he handles fastballs just fine.

21-year-old struggles to hit in his major league debut in the biggest park in the major leagues does not scare me at all.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 12, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm still iffy on Pineda

I don’t think he will be a great long term pitcher unless he can improve that change up.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 12, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

He either needs a curve, a change-up or some sort of a cutter

The cutter is probably the easiest to learn and wouldn’t be surprised if he did, but until he does, I can’t really put that much faith in him. As he gets more wear on his arm, that 98 MPH fastball suddenly becomes 94 MPH, which is still excellent, but without other pitches to compliment it, it’s not that hard to beat. He is a less polished version of Price in my eyes.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 12, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure what people expect out of pitchers anymore.

He might have the best fastball in the majors, if not top 5, and he’s 22 with plenty of time to get better, but he’s not impressive because there’s a chance he doesn’t develop a strong change, which by the way would make him one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball. I never really understood why people look for reasons to dislike him so much but it seems to happen with a lot of Mariners prospects so I’m over it.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 12, 2012 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

How many pitchers in baseball are able to survive with a great fastball and an above average slider?

There’s plenty of closers, but not many starters can do that long term. Yes, he was excellent last season and his fastball is unbelievable, but that’s not sustainable.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 12, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I just think people are much more likely to doubt than believe because Pineda wasn't some 18 year old phenom.

He just gets better every year and people keep expecting him to fail. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m optimistic.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 12, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Didn't answer the question...

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 12, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

You literally want me to answer your rhetorical question?

At least, I thought you were being rhetorical. Like if I asked you, how many pitchers have never gotten better at a third pitch between age 22 and 24? I don’t know… some…

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 12, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

The point is: not many

Randy Johnson but I wouldn’t use him as a comparable to any pitcher. Trying to pitch without something to neutralize the opposite hand is difficult, and that’s the primary reason that Pineda isn’t seen as a future star, even though he performed well at 22.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 12, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

He would have been a senior in college last year at that age, and instead he went to the ML All-Star game.

I’m not claiming that Pineda is definitely a future ace, but I’ve been following him for four years and I feel like I have a good sense of what’s wrong and right with him. If he was a two-pitch pitcher with the best fastball in the draft, he would have been a top pick with an organization believing they can improve his change-up because he’s still very young.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 12, 2012 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

but

the mound was 3 inches higher back when he pitched. I think he was the reason why they lowered the mound to 12 inches from 15. He had a 1.12 ERA in 1968.
I was surprised to see that he was not a big strikeout pitcher, averaging “just” 7.2/9 in his career.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 12, 2012 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Trout and Jennings

are roughly the same correct? As far as skills…

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 12, 2012 11:42 AM EST reply actions  

yes

very close.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 12, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Except one is 5 years younger.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Jan 12, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

One of the many reason Trout should be higher than Jennings.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 12, 2012 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Trout, for me, is younger, and hasn’t shown the problems with injuries that Jennings has.

by Jason Hunt on Jan 12, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions  

Trout is literally better right now

or if you want to argue, its pretty close, fine. But the fact that he’s only 20 YEARS OLD and Jennings is 25 means the boy is CLEARLY going to be better. If you want to give the upper hand to Jennings for 2012, fine. Trout is going to develop into a superstar while people treat Jennings like he is going to be the next Carl Crawford when he’s already coming into his prime. He should already be that guy if its going to happen.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 12, 2012 11:49 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think there is any question that Trout is several steps ahead of Jennings on almost any criteria.

However, maybe Ray feels more comfortable with an older prospect, or he’s seen what’s happened to several top Angels prospects that “couldn’t miss” like Brandon Wood.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 12, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Brandon Wood

I think the Angels Community has tried its best to lobotomize the memory of super prospect Brandon Wood, as have dynasty managers.

by Mr. Homerun on Jan 13, 2012 9:52 AM EST up reply actions  

*season

Formerly known as AlohaHalofan

by Erick Danielsen on Jan 12, 2012 11:50 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Harper

could be all year, but more likely 3 months.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 12, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

That is the question of the hour

If he plays all year in the Majors, I think he could be top 25 fairly easily. But I think he’s not up until at least after the All-Star break, especially since they added a bunch of stopgap outfielders.

by Jason Hunt on Jan 12, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

*Top 25 outfielder I meant.

by Jason Hunt on Jan 12, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Ok

Makes more sense. But still very high

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 12, 2012 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Hit .256

in AA and slugged .395. Doesn’t strike me as someone ready much less someone who would “be top 25 fairly easily.” Where do you get this? He’s not superhuman.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 12, 2012 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

That's why he's a top 1 prospect

not a reason why he’s ready for the majors

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 12, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure.

I guess if you took Jason’s statement though in one respect, you could say that if he actually stuck in the majors for a full season, he probably held his own. And the 25th best outfielder last year by wOBA was Melky Cabrera. So the expectation level wouldn’t be that great. Either a low BA and high power (Jay Bruce was 29th) or middle of the ground. Though, that being said, it would be a great season for a 19 year old.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 12, 2012 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I think he's going to be a better version, in almost every respect, of Mike Stanton.

The only difference will be a home run edge to Stanton, but everything else will be Harper. I’m just sold on the fact that he’s going to be one of the top 5 players in baseball, but that’s 3-4 years from now.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 12, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Fair

But a lot needs to happen til that happens. He is ahead on the development curve but Stanton was always someone to work his ass off. It would boost my confidence if he would knock off the immaturity.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 12, 2012 12:02 PM EST up reply actions  

immaturity?

Harper is under a microscope so anything he does worng will be magnified. I am sure there are many others who did what he did last year and it went unreported.
He will be fine, and I think he is quite the opposite. He is mature for a 19 year old, to be able to handle the media and pressure, and still perform.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 12, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm sure he will be fine.

I didn’t say anything to the contrary. It would make me feel better if he took some behavior lessons from Mike Trout. So have fun arguing with yourself there.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 12, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

you make no sense

you said you wanted him to knock off the maturity so I responded.
Then you respond that you hope he takes behavior lessons from Trout.

So, do you think he has a maturity issue or no, because you are contradicting yourself within a span of a few seconds it took you to write your response.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 12, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

don’t feed the troll.

by notsukao on Jan 12, 2012 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

+ like a thousand

Major leaguers profile and pose when hitting bombs all the time, but when Harper does anything along those lines he suddenly gets labeled immature and uncoachable. It’s ridic.

by Chris Buckley on Jan 12, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

but Heleftyoubagend will argue with you then say you are arguing by yourself……

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 12, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

yea idgi

I’m not sure what point he’s arguing, or attempting to at this stage. He either thinks he’s immature or he doesn’t, it’s pretty black and white.

by Chris Buckley on Jan 12, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I do think he's immature.

Never said he wasn’t. I also said he will be fine in his development. How is that confusing? It would make me feel better if he didn’t get kicked out of games or taunt pitchers occasionally. Don’t think its going to suppress his skills as a ball player. It always is a plus when you see a player who shows maturity beyond his age. I don’t know how it is so confusing to understand.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 12, 2012 6:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Ill give him 2 months

He still needs a good 300 ABs in the minors to develop, I don’t think they would force him up even if he could technically probably handle it.

by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 12, 2012 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Jason Kipnis

I am surprised that neither of you had him on your list. I’ve seen many opinions ranking Kipnis’s offensive potential as more potent than Ackley’s. Do you disagree with this sentiment?

by Mr. Homerun on Jan 13, 2012 10:02 AM EST reply actions  

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