Jacoby Ellsbury: Bust Candidate in 2012?
by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 11, 2012 7:00 AM EST
in 2012 Fantasy Baseball Position Rankings
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Jacoby Ellsbury had a breakout 2011 season that I am sure no one saw coming heading into fantasy drafts last March. After playing in only 18 games in 2010, where he hit just .192-.241-.244 with 5 RBI, 10 runs and 7 stolen bases in 78 at bats, Ellsbury had an MVP-like season in 2011. He showed us power that he has never shown before, as he triple slashed .321-.376-.552 with 32 HRs, 105 RBI, 119 runs and 39 stolen bases in 660 at bats. He would have received my vote for AL MVP last year.
I ranked him as my #8 fantasy outfielder in my Early Top 50 Outfielder Rankings, and I think he can have a good year in 2012, but there is no way I expect him to repeat his 2011 performance in 2012.
My reasons after the jump:
Heading into the 2011 season, Ellsbury had hit a total of 20 home runs in a little over 2 full seasons in the majors. Then somehow he had a Brady Anderson-like season, hitting 32 home runs and a total of 83 extra base hits. His 83 extra base hits in 2011 equaled his total for the entire 2008 and 2009 seasons combined.
Ellsbury had a career high in home runs with 32, a .230 ISO and .552 SLG% last season, and when compared to previous years, his 2011 season looks like a career year and an aberration. Let's take a look at his major league ISO, SLG and HR/FB rates for his career:
2007: .155/.509/10.3% in 116 at bats
2008: .114/.394/7.0% in 554 at bats
2009: .114/.415/4.6% in 624 at bats
2010: .051/.244/0.0% in 78 at bats
2011: .230/.552/16.7% in 660 at bats
Add in the fact that his minor league ISO/SLG percentages were more in line with his 2008 and 2009 power stats, and you have to agree that Ellsbury had a career year in 2011. The trend in his power stats tell me that 2011 was a career year for him and he will have trouble repeating in 2012.
Looking at his fly ball rates, we see that he is not a fly ball hitter, as his 34.1% fly ball rate would indicate. Actually, Ellsbury has seen a increase in his fly ball rates since his rookie year, but the power production is not sustainable.
Ellsbury had his breakout last year despite a drop in his plate discipline. Let's take a look at the following plate discipline stats, courtesy of FanGraphs. In 2011,
- He swung at more pitches in the zone - 63% in 2011 vs 58% in 2009
- His outside the zone swing percentage of 28% was the highest of his career, and an increase from the 24% mark in 2009
- He made less contact on balls inside the zone, as his zone contact rates dropped from 95% in 2009 to 92% in 2011
- His overall contact rates dropped from 88% in 2009 to 86% in 2011
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It's early and people are going nuts for Ellsbury.
In our money league, an owner traded Ellsbury for Cano STRAIGHT UP.
It made me question the sanity of the people I play with.
I don't know, but the guy quotes himself in his own signature - CaptnAmerca
Career Year
Its true his peripherals were way above his previous seasons, but so was bautista’s break out season. Fangraphs had a good article talking about something like this earlier… (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/looking-for-the-next-jose-bautista/). While I dont think he will hit 30HR or drive in 100RBI next year I think too many are bearish on him next year.
He changed his swing angle and increased his flyball and .ISO numbers. His peripherals were causal rather than luck driven. His BABIP at .336 wasn’t that much different than a .328 BABIP in 2009. The stat I see a possible regression in is wOBA which would lead to fewer RBI’s.
Jacoby finished 2011 stronger than he started it with an ISO of .300+ and OPS of 1.000 in the second half. Some have made the case for an even better year for Jacoby based on his second half numbers. Overall I see Jacoby as a 100+/25/85/45 .300 for next year with the potential to be even better.
There
is something to be said about actually changing yourself as a hitter. Jacoby was a different hitter. It wasn’t just random happenings that brought in so many home runs. He did swing for the fences more, did have more of an upper-cut swing, and probably won’t be returning to his career averages. There is more to evaluating players than simple statistics. Ray continually reduces evaluation to just number crunching.
by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 11, 2012 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry
I don’t have the time to review video of him, and have not read that he changed his swing. The stats tell me he will regress….time will tell.
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 11, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
source
where is the source saying he changed his swing? does anyone know where I can find this?
Then I guess we should all move James Loney up our rankings as he changed his swing last year too.
Ray Guilfoyle
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www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 11, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
I don't get it
are you now making another argument where we only analyze one aspect of a player to project him for next season?
by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 11, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Difference
I am not a scout…..this is a fantasy sports blog. I am not here to analyze a player’s swing or pitching mechanics.
So, I base it on what I know of that player and his stats.
Where is the source that says he changed his swing?
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 11, 2012 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
A Simple Google Search Found . . .
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/01/sports/baseball/red-sox-ellsbury-generates-a-surge-in-power.html
“Although Ellsbury had never shown the sort of power he has displayed this season, Red Sox Manager Terry Francona said he saw some slight adjustments in Ellsbury’s swing that indicated there might be some more pop in the offing. By staying back longer, Ellsbury allows his swing to generate more natural power and, in the case of his home run Wednesday, use the velocity the pitcher provides to send the ball flying.”
Natural to Predict Regression
Ellsbury definitely changed his swing and is likely to outproduce his pre-‘11 HR stats for the next few years, whether he hits 28 next season or 34 is anyone’s guess.
In Ray’s defense, it’s pretty natural to predict regression when someone has a drastic improvement in one of their stats, especially an established player such as Ellsbury.
All of 2010 it was reported that Bautista had changed his swing all the way back in ‘09 Spring Training and that his production in ’10 was a result of that. But because everyone was still shocked by the outburst, almost every fantasy site projected regression for Bautista, otherwise he would’ve been ranked much higher than he was going into last season.
Even more recent, Curtis Granderson changed his swing midway through 2010 to be more pull focused for the short RF porch in Yankees Stadium and hit 17 HR in the 2nd Half of that year. I didn’t see anyone projecting him to hit 41 HR in 2011.
It would seem that until an established player displays a 2-3 season trend, more often than not, it makes sense to play it safe and project regression.
agreed
hey, I’m willing to be wrong here, but I am exercsing caution.
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 11, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
I would definitely think he
hits less HR than 2011. Regression? Definitely. Thing is you said “huge drop in power” which I can only guess would put him somewhere like 15-19 HR. Not a terrible projection, although I think mid-twenties is more accurate. My problem is that you did not mention his change in approach at the plate. You see the same thing with a lot of Asdrubal Cabrera projections as well. While regression is most likely, you need to understand why. For making a post on a player’s 2011 season that contained drastic changes, its probably best to understand them yourself before “advising” fantasy baseball owners.
by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 11, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
Sources
New York Times (<a href=“http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/01/sports/baseball/red-sox-ellsbury-generates-a-surge-in-power.html)…”Red" target="_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/01/sports/baseball/red-sox-ellsbury-generates-a-surge-in-power.html)…“Red Sox Manager Terry Francona said he saw some slight adjustments in Ellsbury’s swing that indicated there might be some more pop in the offing. By staying back longer, Ellsbury allows his swing to generate more natural power and, in the case of his home run Wednesday, use the velocity the pitcher provides to send the ball flying.”
A more comprehensive review of Jacoby’s power surge…(http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/08/tya-mailbag-what-is-up-with-jacoby-ellsburys-power-33238)
Baseball Heat Maps shows Jacoby hit the average homerun with a angle of 26.4 degrees versus an average homerun angle of 33.7 degrees in 2009-2010. I tried to try and post the chart but it didnt work.
Jacoby showed better line drive contact last year and hit the ball farther as a result. I remember the red sox announcers had a segment that analyzed the changes in Jacobys swing during their games last year. I will try to find it.
He will be back and in greater numbers
by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Jan 11, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
so are you saying
he will hit more than 32 HRs in 2012?
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 11, 2012 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
Ellsbury's swing
I didn’t see where in the ESPN article they talked about his adjustments. Also couldn’t bring up the other articles. But from watching games it appeared the angle of his swing was more upward, looked like he was really getting under the ball and creating more loft. On breaking pitches he often swung over the pitch as compared to before where he would make relatively weak contact that would result in an infield out, if it traveled far enough.
I know Bautista’s adjustment was timing related. He started the swing earlier, getting through the zone at the same moment as the ball and driving it, compared to before when he was late on pitches.
Anyway, I managed to trade Sizemore for Ells right at the end of April. And the rest, is history……
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