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Roto Roundup: Jacoby Ellsbury as AL MVP?, Kyle Seager Stays Hot

DENVER, CO - AUGUST 19:  Eric Young #1 of the Colorado Rockies slides in for a stolen base ahead of the tag by Justin Sellers #12 of the Los Angeles Dodgers as Aaron Miles #6 backs up the throw at Coors Field on August 19, 2011 in Denver, Colorado.  The Dodgers defeated the Rockies 8-2-. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Dodgers outfielder Juan Rivera has been a boon to teams who picked him up when the Dodgers traded for him a few months back. Rivera went 2-5 with a HR, 2 runs and 3 RBI, and is now hitting .322-.392-.570 with 3 HRs and 22 RBIs since coming over to the NL. For the full season, he is hitting .268-.325-.403 with 9 HRs and 50 RBI in 362 at bats. 

Kenny (aka Humbled Fan) commented on yesterday's Roundup post about some of the Mariners prospects that have been called up this season. Included in his comment was third baseman Kyle Seager, who went 4-4 with 3 doubles, 3 runs and an RBI yesterday. In his last 4 games, Seager is 12-17, and in the last 10 games, he is 18-38 with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. Between AA and AAA this season, he hit .333-.399-.495 with 7 HRs and 54 RBIs. I think this is just a hot streak, but Seager is a career .328 hitter in the minors.

Mets third baseman David Wright went 3-4 with a run and 2 RBI, and is now hitting .259-.345-.441 with 11 HRs, 42 RBI, 42 runs and 10 SB in 12 attempts in his 270 at bats this season. Wright, who has been slowed by a bad back, owns a K/BB rate of 65-36 and the K rate has slowed this season. Some will say he has had a down season, and he has, mainly due to the back injury, but 11-42-42-10 in less than 300 at bats is pretty solid. He will continue to be highly ranked heading into 2012 drafts.

More Roundup after the jump:

Star-divide

Rockies outfielder Eric Young went 1-5 with 2 runs and a SB yesterday, and for the season he is hitting .236-.333-.268 with no homers, 8 RBI, 24 runs, 16 SBs in 18 attempts, and a solid 21-17 K/BB rate in just 127 at bats. So he has patience at the plate, and can steal some bases. But the 16 SBs in 127 at bats are impressive, and he could easily be a fantasy stud if he got 500 at bats, but one has to wonder if he will ever be an everyday player at the big league level.

Speaking of the Rockies, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki will be the #1 shortstop in 2012 drafts, especially with Hanley Ramirez being a complete bust this season. Tulo went 2-3 with a HR, 3 walks, 2 runs and 2 RBI, and is now hitting .305-.375-.546 with 26 HRs, 89 RBI and 9 SBs thus far, and is on pace for a 32-110 season. He is having another terrific season, and could be a top 5 or 6 pick in 2012 drafts.

Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury went 3-5 with a HR, 3 runs, 2 RBI and a SB last night in the Red Sox 13-2 win over the Rangers. Ellsbury is a top candidate for AL MVP, along with teammate Adrian Gonzalez and Yankees outfielder Curtis Granderson. Ellsbury is hitting .315-.372-.521 with 23 HRs, 81 RBI, 93 runs and 35 SBs this season. This from a guy who some teammates questioned last year whether he was really injured or not, and there was rumors that he would be traded. Now the Red Sox are in a position to possibly sign him long term.

Ellsbury's teammate Carl Crawford had a big game last night as well, as he went 2-3 with a HR, double and 5 RBI. Crawford has been very disappointing for fantasy owners this season as he is hitting just .255-.290-.396 with 9 HRs, 46 RBI, 51 runs and 17 SBs in just 22 attempts. The batting average and OBP are surprising, but what's more surprising is the 22 stolen base attempts, which is by far the worst in his career. Is this what we should expect from him in 2012?

Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp went 4-4 with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs last night in the A's win over the Yankees. Crisp is now hitting .274-.331-.401 with 7 HRs, 43 RBI. 63 runs and 37 SBs and an excellent 49-37 K/BB rate in his 434 at bats this season. 

Diamondbacks starter Daniel Hudson was one out away from a complete game shutout, but proceeded to give up the long ball to Nationals outfielders Laynce Nix and Jonny Gomes on back to back pitches, but still came away with his 13th win of the season. He gave up just the two runs on 9 hits, no walks and 6 strikeouts, and is now 13-9 with a 3.75 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.65 xFIP and a 1.26 WHIP in 180 innings of work this season.

Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie with 2-3 with a HR, triple and 2 RBI last night in the Jays 4-3 win over the Royals. Batting in the lower third of the Jays lineup, Lawrie is hitting .328-.379-.656 with 4 HRs, 12 RBI, 9 runs, a SB in just 61 at bats. It's a small sample size, but Lawrie could be getting some offseason love from fantasy writers this offseason should he continue to hit like this.

Angels ace Jered Weaver, fresh off a new contract extension, shut out the White Sox for 7 innings last night, giving up just 4 hits, walking 2 and striking out 8. He is now 15-6 with a 2.03 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 3.62 xFIP and a 0.97 WHIP. His strikeout rate is down to 7.65 from 9.35 this season, but his BB rate has been steady and his HR/9 has dropped. Looking over his major league career stats tells you that last year's K rate may have been a fluke as his K rate has been in the 6.40-7.74 range in his career.

Reds first baseman Joey Votto went 5-7 with 2 HRs and 4 RBI in yesterday's doubleheader against the Marlins. Votto is quietly putting together another solid season at the plate, hitting .328-.441-.551 with 24 HRs, 84 RBI, 87 runs, 7 SBs, and an excellent 96-94 K/BB rate. About a month ago, I told a fellow fantasy owner that he was having a down season....that is, until I compared his stats to his 2010 MVP season. Votto's power is down a bit, but he should still be a first round pick in 2012 drafts.

Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez took batting practice yesterday and could be ready to return to the Marlins lineup as early as next Monday in New York. I will believe it when I see it. He's been a disappointment this season, but you already knew that.

Dodgers shortstop Dee Gordon will play in two rehab games today and Friday and should return to the Dodgers lineup on Saturday if all goes well for him. Owners looking for SBs, and I am in one league, should activate him on Saturday.

Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg could return to the big leagues on September 6th if all goes well for him in his next two rehab starts with AAA Syracuse. I am not sure how much Strasburg can help fantasy teams in September, but here is Rotohardball's take on that.

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Seager probably won't have the power people expect from a third baseman, but truthfully people expect too much from third baseman.

Did you know 3B have the 2nd lowest OPS in the majors next to catchers?

Kyle Seager was a 3rd round pick in 2009, going 2 rounds after his teammate at UNC, Dustin Ackley, so there’s reason to believe there’s starting caliber talent there. Seager is one of those players who i’ve given up trying to predict, because so far all he has done is make prospect gurus and prognosticators look stupid. He shouldn’t be doing what he’s doing, yet he keeps doing it.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 25, 2011 9:29 AM EDT reply actions  

Cameron not buying

12:22 [Comment From JonJon: ]
Is Carp, Seager, Robinson, Wells along with Ackley, Smoak, Ichiro, Gutierrez, and Ryan make a contending offfensive lineup for 2012?
Thursday August 25, 2011 12:22 Jon
12:23 Dave Cameron: No. Check out the BABIPs that the rookies are putting up. It’s fun to watch, but it’s not sustainable.
 

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 25, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, I don't think anyone would guess that its sustainable. They are hitting out of their shoes right now.

Also, I’m a Seattle fan and I know Dave Camerons work. He was betting his house that Michael Pineda would suck this year.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 25, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

ok

but Pineda has hit a wall now, no?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 25, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

maybe

good first half, but getting hit in 2nd half……not surprising for a young SP though

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 25, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cameron said that Pineda didn't have good enough stuff to get major league hitters out and that was clearly wrong.

Getting tired after throwing that many innings is what slowed him down in the 2nd half, but his stuff was good enough to get him to the all-star game. Dave Cameron has an opinion I respect, but he’s wrong sometimes too.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 25, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

agreed

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 25, 2011 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Crawford can't steal if he's not on base

and he hasn’t been on base very much

"There was no torture in the end. Only rapture." - Mike Krukow
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by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 25, 2011 2:04 PM EDT reply actions  

yes

but when he is on base, he isn’t running. will hurt his value in 2012.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 25, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Crawford

He was just a banjo hitter back in the day…. until they pulled him out of the lineup for week to work with the hitting coach… after that he became the “Carl Crawford we know today”.

If you look at his home runs and slugging percentage it’s not too far off from his career averages (especially if he was getting 600 at bats)

The .255 average isn’t up to snuff…. but he’s only 15 hits off his career batting average.

Do I think he’s a bust? From a fantasy perspective absolutely…. we were all looking for 50 steals and 20 homers…. I wonder if his lower steal totals are a combination of being hurt and not getting the green light as much as he’s used to (I don’t know that for sure…. just guessing). But in the current Red Sox offense he doesn’t need to steal 50 bases to be effective from a real baseball perspective.

He especially sticks out like a sore thumb because Ellsbury DID take that leap to the next level everybody thought Crawford was going to make.

Disappointment? Sure is….. but if he hits .290 with 15 homers 30+ steals and gold glove defense next year, then the Sox got what they overpaid for.

by Bob_24798 on Aug 25, 2011 5:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Ellsbury

he is doing what we thought Crawford would do this year. Great lineup though

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 25, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

One final thought

If you look at baseball-reference.com…. according to the Bill James similarity scores…. the player who he most comparable to in his career as well as individual seasons…. Roberto Clemente. Didn’t see that one.

Of course that was a different era…… and they must have not weighted the stolen base differences very highly.

He is also very comparable to Tim Raines and Ralph Garr,,,,,, that would seem a more natural comparison. Neither of them had a season in their careers with more than 18 home runs.

Raines (the best comparison) is a borderline hall of famer…… the bulk of his great seasons were prior to age 30 (Crawford’s current age)…. most players peak around 27….. so I don’t know if Crawford will ever consistently reach that next level..

I guess I still harbor ill will for him running in from the outfield to sucker punch Coco Crisp (Yes I’m a Red Sox fan) while he was pinned under a pile of players :)

by Bob_24798 on Aug 25, 2011 7:30 PM EDT reply actions  

wow

did he really do that?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 25, 2011 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ohhh yeah

I believe Coco took out on of the Rays players the day before with a hard slide. The next night James Shields got some retaliation and hit Coco.

Coco charged the mound to get at James Shields… Shields threw a punch and Coco pulled his chin back (looked a little like Sugar Ray Leonard) and it turned into a free for all.

EVERYBODY came running in…. Crawford punched him while he was pinned to the ground under three or four Rays players.

Utube doesn’t have a video per se… (MLB licensing) but this slide show has Coco pulling back and nailing Shields. It also doesn’t show Crawford committing the crime :) But it does give you a rough idea.

It was a cheap shot….. of course Coco is no longer with the Sox so it’s no longer an issue.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQM3-zLWyzU

by Bob_24798 on Aug 26, 2011 8:09 PM EDT reply actions  

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