12 team format using ESPN. COM projections.
I will use five different names to describe players and I will give you definitions of those terms below.
1. Busts- these are guys that you should avoid completely in the draft
2. Value picks- This means you should only pick them if they fall in your draft aka if he is projected at 16 it means he isn’t a good second round pick but might be a good fourth or fifth round pick
3. Sleepers- this is a term for guys that you will be picking in the later rounds that have good upside and value.
4. Safe Take - these are guys that should be available in each round if they are there its safe to grab him.
5. Go get him- this means exactly what you think it means go get that mother f***** baby. AKA guys that I would go after maybe 2 or 3 rounds before his projection; for instance, if they are projected at 80 (7th round) getting him in the 60 (5th round) is probably a good idea.
Before I get started im going to tell you about the guys you want to get earlier than they are projected.
Shonn Green- Pick 65 (round 6) – The lead dog now in NY we were one year early but he will help us out this year.
Chad OchoCinco Pick 91 (round 8)- I would try to get Chad simply bc of the Randy Moss affect he has crazy upside and you don’t want to miss out. Draft him as Early as Round 6.
Tim HighTower- pick 143 (round 12)- Hightower just won the Job for the Redskins, he is a steal right now draft him in round 10 just incase.
Mike Sims Walker- 144 (round 12) He has the best chance to be the #1 receiver in St. louis and after seeing what Josh McDaniels did to Lloyd last year take him.
ROY WILLIAMS pick 98 (Round 8)- Mike Martz loves him and he can become Jay Cutlers #1 receiver doesn’t sound to bad.
Players 1-12 Round 1
Busts: No one: every guy this early in the draft will do well enough this year and wont be a complete bust
Value picks: Receivers Andre Johnson and Roddy White don’t take a wide receiver in the first round that’s a waste. If they fall to the second round you can take them but keep in mind you can get great wide receivers in the 3rd and 4th round.
Safe take: Running backs 1-6.
Go Get Him:
LeSean McCoy: after the elite 5 running backs (AP,Foster,CJ2K,Charles, Rice) I LOVE McCoy he has Westbrook potential of 2007 and could crack the top five running back this season if you have the 6 or later pick he be my guy. I would consider taking him over CJ2k and MJD.
Vick: its true what they say about Vick he is going to blow away anyone as long as he is healthy and to be honest if you have a late round pick in the first taking him wouldn’t be the worst idea especially if all the top running backs in the first round are gone.
Mendenhall: With Big Ben back for a full year expect Mendenhall to have another big year. He doesn’t have much upside, but he will definitely finish as a top then back. Out of the second half of the top 12 picks he probably is the safest.
Round 2 picks 13-24
Busts: No one again I hate to say it but bust is a harsh word.
Brady, Manning and Brees- Don’t worry about taking a QB this early in the draft if you don’t get Vick the rest are a dime a dozen wait for guys like Romo, and Big Ben in the later rounds.
Frank Gore: I have been a Gore supporter for years and even took him last year over MJD; however, this year I would let someone else take him in the second round. The 49ers have no QB and they lost a key piece to there line from last year. Also, he is coming off an injury and who knows how he will respond to 8 man fronts this year. Take him in round 3 if he is there.
Michael Turner: The drafting of first round pick Julio Jones is more than just a sign that the team is going to open up the offense it’s a fact. Early reports out of Atlanta say that they will release the reins on Matt Ryan, and with the trio of White, Jones and Gonzo it should be one of the top passing attacks. With the value you can get for other backs I would stay away let someone else take him as a starter.
Greg Jennings: With Finley back healthy expect Jennings targets to go down and touchdowns as well. At 14 there is so many better options at wide receiver.
Safe Take: Mcfadden, Mike Wallace, Fitzgerald
Go Get Him:
Megatron aka Calvin. Johnson- Johnson might be the closet thing to a Go get him in the first two rounds. Johnson had an insane offseason this year putting on more muscle and from what I heard is more of a freak then ever. Stafford seems focused on staying healthy and ready to go. Calvin Johnson is my favorite player of the players 13-24.
S. Jackson- with Josh McDaniels taking over as Offensive Coordinator and Bradford in his second year this will be the year Jackson scores 10 touchdowns in a season for the first time since 2006.
Round 3 Picks 25-36
Busts: No one
Phillip Rivers: see Manning, Brady and Brees
Peyton Hillis- Such a huge year last year for Hillis ill give him his props but after his downfall last year in the last five games I am scared to touch him. Pat Shurmur is bring in the West Coast Offense which isn’t a bad thing for Colt McCoy or Hillis, but id rather be proved wrong with Hillis not on my team then on it.
Ryan mathews- Tolbert is going to be a thorn in his side all year long, and for a fourth round pick stay away better yet run away from him. I wouldn’t touch him till after you have your starting line up aka round 7.
Dez Bryant vs Miles Austin- Id rather see them as WR 3/Flex then WR 2 every week. But if I had to pick I would take Austin. When Romo comes back Austin and him have a connection and it should continue this year. However, Bryant is a freak also and will take away from his overall value. I would eye them up in the 5th round if their there.
D. Williams- Big contract doesn’t mean big production J. Stewart is still around and the panthers are gearing up for one of the worst QB situations this year. Let him fall before you use a pick on him.
Gates, Forte, Wayne, Bradshaw, V. Jackson,
Go Get Him:
D. Jackson- Its painful to say but he is the only guy left that I feel can be an WR1 if at this point you have your two backs take D. Jackson
Round 4 (37-48)
Busts – this round is loaded with bust potiential baby
J. Stewart- IF YOU TAKE HIM in the fourth round your asking for the worst pick of your draft don’t waste your time.
Dwayne Bowe- Charlie Weis is gone and Bowe might be headed right back into Todd Haley’s dog house, and with the signing of McClain expect a Hefty dose of Charles and Jones.
K. Moreno- John Fox likes to run a two back system, and as you can tell from the past few years his offensive hasn’t played that well in Carolina. Trust me Willis McGahee has better value in the later rounds then this guy.
J. Maclin- he is sick and hasn’t practice in weeks plus the signing of Steve Smith equals pass on Maclin.
M. Colston- Colston can’t shake the injury bug, and with Lance Moore healthy, Graham emerging as legit pass catcher and the presence of Meachem pass on Colston hes not worth the inconsistency.
Brandon Lloyd- Josh Mcdaniels is gone and now Fox is in. Ask Steve Smith how that worked out for him. Kyle Orton is more of a product of McDaniels genius then his own talent and Lloyd wont repeat in a heavy running attack.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis- Really? A pats back this early come on only god knows whos going to be the back for this team all year and with Brady running the show with his new pal Ochocinco expect TDs to be spread around to everyone in round 4 your asking him to be a starter and im not ready to trust him like that.
J. Best- with the injury to his counter part Leshoure Best is now the primary back again in a potentially powerful offense idk something says take him to me but maybe let him fall to the fifth round its worth the gamble.
Romo and Schaub-I like them both id rather you have a solid RB 1 and 2 and WR 1 and 2 before you take a QB so its really a Judgement call here is. If QBs are flying off the shelves fast then go for it but I would wait til round 5 to get a QB.
Go Get Him:
L. Blount/Mike Williams- With Freeman Running the show this offense has a lot of potential to repeat last years stats and then some. I like them both as WR2 or RB2 so in the fourth round that’s exactly what you get.
Round 5 (49-60)
Steve. Johnson- trust me you want nothing to do with him. Galey is a offensive guru but with Lee Evens gone there is literally no one else to throw to and everybody knows that. Johnson is good but not good enough to break double teams just stay away.
D. Clark and J.Witten I like Finley better and with the amount of talent at the position wait til you have your QB WRs and RBs.
C.Benson- He is going to get so many touches he will produce sometimes so he isn’t going to be a bust but in this round let him pass.
S. Holmes, F. Jones, M. Manningham, Big Ben
Go Get Him:
Ryan Grant- Grant has the potential to be a top 10 back in this offense and this late in the draft you cant pass on that I would consider him as the best option in the 49-60 players
P. Harvin- Who else is McNabb going to throw to, but unlike Steve Johnson Harvin has AP to keep defenses modest. Also, its not saying much, but Berrian is better than anything the Bills have.
W. Welker- This has to do with Ocho more than Welker. With a new primary target to push defensive safeties back it will give Welker more room to operate. Expect Welker catch more balls this year and to regain his edge in the red zone.
Round 6 (61-72)
Bust- Sidney Rice- With T. Jackson running the show don’t expect S.Rice to regain his 2009 form it wasn’t until Favre came to town that Rice really shined. Also, Carroll made some improvements along the offense line this offseason to help boost the running game. Expext guys like Lynch and Miller to be better values later in the draft.
Value Pick- M. Lynch- I do believe Lynch will have a good year he is only 25 and the past two seasons he hasn’t had much wear and tear on his body. This offseason the Seahawks made some major improvements on the line and and with the signing of Zach Miller the talent upfront is on the rise.
V. Davis- Davis finally lived up to his potential and showed it was no fluke. However, with the signing of Edwards, and with Alex Smith still running the show don’t expect him to improve on his numbers, but he still is a TE 1.
Safe picks- F. Jackson, D. Thomas, M. Ingram, B. Marshall
Go Get Him-
S. Greene- This year is the year we don’t get burned he has the most upside of the players 61-72 and can become a top 10 back this year with the Jets Offense.
J. Freeman- I believe in freeman and I am willing to pass on all the other guys to for him in round 6. All 5 offensive lineman return and with weapons in the passing game like Williams, Benn, and Winslow he has all the pieces around him to be great.
A. Boldin- with the acquisition of Lee Evens to stretch defenses and with the talented Ray Rice in the running game they cant focus on Boldin. Also, with Flacco’s safety nets Mason and Heap leaving this offseason Boldin will be the 1 option for Flacco he can definitely have a better year than last, and be a every week starter.
J. Finley- he is going to finish as the second best TE behind Gates if he plays 16 games I Would put money on it.
A. Collie- Manning loves him I love him Manning trusts him I trust him. When healthy last year he was the top wide receiver in fantasy if he can shake his concussions this could be one of the biggest steals of the draft.
Round 7 (73-84)
P. Garcon- will be the fourth option in the passing game and when collie is healthy he is a ghost
P. Thomas- Saints spent a 1 pick on M. Ingram that’s all you need to know.
R. Torain- lost his starting job to Hightower
J. Knox- lost his starting job to Roy Williams.
Steve Smith- cant say he is a safe bet but with a new OC in Carolina a former coach in San Diego maybe a new pass heavy attack will play out and get Smith back on track.
Matt Ryan- Matt Ryan finished 8th last year in the QB rankings and apparently they are opening up the offense this year and airing it out more. I don’t see Ryan leaping into the top three, but he is definitely one of those dimes in the dozen.
Eli Manning- His offensive line should actually be better this year, but he did lose his favorite safety nets in Steve Smith and Kevin Boss. Eli will be a top 12 so if he is your starter of course you can do worse.
J. Addai- Manning loves him and for some reason he scores touchdowns I wouldn’t take him, but you could do worse.
GO GET HIM
Beanie Wells- with Kevin Kolb running the helm expect the Cardinals to be better offensively. Also, the acquisition of Heap it gives them a great run blocker and pass catching threat. Wells is a beast and if he can stay healthy he should do well in this new offense.
AJ. Green- a #1 receiver with freakish ability, but a very poor QB situation doesn’t help; however, if Gradkowski can win the job he has proven to be able to move an offense and Green will be the primary target.
Brief Rounds 8-14 (85-168)
Busts- M. Floyd- With V. Jackson back and Gates healthy Floyd becomes the third option again, and if the past is any indication he isn’t even worth picking up unless one of them gets hurt.
J. Starks- Starks will spell Grant, but at this point in the draft there is a lot of guys with upside that you can get,
C.J Spiller- Fred Jackson is the guy and the Bills should sport a very weak offense this year and Spiller will flash some big play ability, but he won’t be consistent enough
M.Bush- Barring a McFadden injury Bush won’t be a factor
J. Nelson- James Jones resigned this offseason which capped his upside
J. Harrison- More of a clone of J. Best he won’t over take Best he will be a primary back up
B.Edwards- Good player, but until the 49ers get a QB expect Edwards to fall of the radar.
Ricky.Williams- He might get goal line carries, but Ray Rice is young, talented and determined to get them.
James Jones- Nelson will cancel out his upside
GO GET HIM-
Owen Daniels- High powered offense and two years ago was a break out star at TE he can definitely be a top 5 TE this year.
Mike Tolbert- Even though he is a back up and honestly I don’t see the point in handcuffs, at this point in the draft Tolbert isn’t a bad value. He will get goal line carries in a good offense, and its said that the Chargers will go with a Two back system.
B.Jacobs- Bradshaw is the guy, but if last year is any indication then Jacobs should get his share. The Giants made some improvements along the line which should benefit them inside the 5.
S.Bradford- I Love Bradford and with Josh McDaniels running the show the sky is the limit. The only thing he is lacking is legit weapons on offense, but last year he proved he has Brady/Manning like talent to make people around him better.
M.Stafford- IF he stays healthy with the team around him he will flourish this year.
G.Olsen- Young QBs love TEs and whoever wins the job is only going to latch onto there talented TE. Also, this offense season Ron Rivera brought in Chudzinski as his OC ( a former TE coach and Antonio Gates coach last year) expect a friendly TE offense.
P.Burress- Idk why but something tells me this late in the draft why not take him if he is 75 percent of what he was this is a steal.