FanPost

Percy Harvin: 2011 breakout candidate

I did a few player profiles earlier in the year before the baseball season on a few random guys that I liked for whatever reason.  The three I did were Alex Gordon, Michael Pineda, and Jake Fox.  I clearly was wrong on the Fox prediction, but by hopping on the Pineda and Gordon bandwagons early I have had a lot of success.  Clearly if you follow 2/3rds of my football recommendations you will win your league.  OK, while that may not be true take a look at what I say and if it floats your boat then go for it.


The players that took a look at for baseball were all very late round to undrafted commodities.  This is not true of Percy Harvin.  Harvin had a pretty solid season last year with 868 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs, a kick return TD, a rushing TD, and 107 rushing yards.  All of this made him the 20th rated receiver in fantasy.  At just 23 with top flight speed Harvin clearly has great potential especially considering he was able to be the 20th best reciever while only playing 14 games last season.  Those two missed games came from an ankle injury and while people have begun to put an "injury prone" tag on Harvin, his injuries have never been serious and he has often been able to tough out his injuries.

One major area for concern with Harvin is the way that he obtained his fantasy value last season.  While most WRs get their value from receiving yards and touchdowns, Percy had a ground game as well.  Often when a WR has rushing yards it is because of a lucky gadget play that only happened to work one time and thus falsely enhances that players stats.  This is not the case with Harvin.  He had 18 rushing attempts last year and 15 the year before that.  In 2010 he had at least one attempt in all but 5 of his games.  Clearly running with Harvin is a part of the gameplan week in and week out, and while he will not be racking up the yards he should be able to match what he has done on the ground for the last two seasons.

Percy also had a lot fo value as a returner last season, meaning he is even more valuable in leagues that count return yards and TDs (most do not, but hey, its a decent little bonus if you do)

One of the major reasons that I think Percy Harvin will take a step forward this year is the departure of Sidney Rice.  While losing a major threat from the opposite side will allow defenses to focus more on Harvin, he also should see his targets increase dramatically this year.

Another big reason that I see Harvin breaking out is the addition of Donovan McNabb to the Vikings.  While McNabb is not quite what he once was, he is a big improvement over the uncertainty that Harvin had to deal with last season with Brett Favre and Tavaris Jackson.

Overall we are talking about a 23 year old lightning fast receiver coming off of back to back solid seasons.  Last season he was the 20th best receiver and ignoring any personal improvements that he has made, he will have a better QB situation, more targets, and (hopefully) play a full season worth of games.  He is currently being picked 66th overall in Yahoo drafts (25th among WRs).  Even if he takes a step backwards talent wise he is a fantastic value that far into the draft and should be targeted in all leagues

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