Pedro Alvarez's long term value

by The Whoopin Whoopster on May 19, 2011 3:49 PM EDT

I'm contemplating dealing Alvarez in my dynasty league. I know his value is lowest about now so I'm wondering if I should pull the trigger. Our league is rotisserie style with no contracts or salary. I can keep anyone for as long as I want. I'm not ready to contend for a few more years as all my best players are minor leaguers. I have a 2 part question.

First, should I even do a deal while his value is this low? The deal will likely consist of draft picks and prospects. My 3B depth is Nick Castellanos and....thats about it. My 1B depth (where Alvarez figures to move) is Smoak, Rizzo, Belt, Mat Gamel, and possibly Jerry Sands. Obviously any deal will include a 3B prospect. I'm wondering what kind of stats Alvarez will be putting up, even from 1B, in the next few years.

Part 2 would be which 3B prospect does everyone like better and why? : Bobby Borchering, Matt Davidson, and Kaleb Cowart.

Thanks for all your help.

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I had high hopes for Alvarez coming in to the season, and since I live in the area, I get to watch him on a regular basis. So far, I’m not impressed at what I’ve seen. Granted, this is probably the worst he’s looked thus far, but he looks absolutely lost at the plate. He has no bat control, he strikes out all the time and the few times he’s been able to make contact have all been futile attempts to get a home run. To me, he looks like a poor man’s Mark Reynolds or Adam Dunn — someone who’s batting average is always going to be a massive hindrance to his value. And the fact that he’s eventually going to move to First Base and abandon his Third Baseman eligibility seals it for me. Obviously you shouldn’t just give him away, as he still has potential to be a home run bomber if nothing else. But I would definitely look to make a move the next time he starts doing well.

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by ZombieMonta on May 21, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

Timing

“The next time he starts doing well” is key here. He still has name value as a highly-rated prospect, so many people will think his next hot streak is his big breakout. That is the time to deal him.

by pooptallica on May 21, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs