Andrew McCutchen for Carl Crawford ??

by acr on Apr 6, 2011 12:27 AM EDT

In my 4x4 roto, 10 team mixed league I have had a proposal in which I give up Andrew McCutchen for Carl Crawford. In the big picture of things I see these two as somewhat even, considering the 4x4 scoring. McCutchen has pretty much been entrenched in the 3 hole this year and I doubt that changes much. Crawford has been up and down the lineup- hitting in the 2 hole as well as the 3 and 7. I think the only real concern I have with Crawford is him hitting in the 3 hole in front of LHH Adrian Gonzalez as his sb attempts could take a nose dive if that continues. Then again, in the 3 hole McCutchen is hitting right in front of LHH Lyle Overbay which could cause fewer stolen base attempts this year as well.

The categories for 4x4 are stolen bases, rbi's, hr's and BA. I see the categories as this-

Crawford most likely winning the sb batle between him and McCutchen although I could see Crawford in the 30-35 sb range for the year instead of the 40+.

RBI's- I think this could be almost even but with McCutchen having a few more. Even if McCutchen stays in the 3 hole I think Crawford playing in the AL in that BoSox line-up will have a lot of rbi's no matter where he hits in the order: 2nd, 3rd or 7th.

HR's: Here McCutchen has the edge. I think Crawford could hit 20 but McCutchen should be able to nail 25. Crawford's career numbers in Boston are nothing to get too excited over. But I think he tops last year's career high of 19.

BA: This is a hard one but I think I have to go with McCutchen on this one. Sure Crawford has better career numbers and the end result may be pretty close but I think McCutchen has the better chance of hitting .300+ this year between the two. Maybe they both hit .300...but I think McCutchen hits a tad higher than Crawford. I'm sure many will disagree with this.

Of course this is all just conjecture on my part, but for the sake of argument, it looks like McCutchen could win 3 of the 4 categories even though they should all be close. If McCutchen stays in the 3 hole all year I could see him stealing closer to 20 bases as opposed to 30+, especially if he is hitting in front of Overbay all season. Of course, Crawford could lose sb attempts too. If this is all true, does the disparity in sb's make up for the categories where McCutchen may have a small chance at coming out ahead?

Any other thoughts or counter arguments?

Thoughts on this trade proposal?

Poll

In this 4x4 scoring format would you trade Andrew McCutchen for Carl Crawford?

No

12 votes

Yes

18 votes

30 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

McCutch

I see 30+ SBs for McCutchen this year, and he couild approach 40 as Hurdle wants them running this year.
I heard someone on XM Fantasy saying that Boston may limit Crawford’s SB attempts to keep him healthy throughout his contract. And he may not hit more HRs in Fenway.

McCutch and Crawford are much closer in 4×4 than 5xr5 leagues without the runs scored.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Apr 6, 2011 6:46 AM EDT reply actions

McCutcheon

Steady job in the 3 spot.
Green light on the bags.
More power.

Just for kicks, if this guy is a Boston fan, see if you can get him to kick someone else in for the “downgrade.”

It might not work, but there are some delusional Boston homers that would do it.

by CaptnAmerca on Apr 6, 2011 11:54 AM EDT reply actions

What concerns me about McCutchen is that I’m doubting his green light to steal. Well maybe there is a green light to steal if there are two outs. But I suspect less than two outs with Overbay up that McCutchen has to remain at first base. This keeps the 1b close to first as they have to keep McCutchen honest. But this also keeps a wide hitting lane between 1st and 2nd for Overbay. Once McCutchen steals, the first baseman, second baseman and SS can all pretty much play back and cover more area. I’ve not seen the Pitates play this year so I’m not sure whether this is the case or not. But I did notice that McCutchen’s only sb attempt this year was with 2 outs and Overbay at the plate. The opposing team had their SS covering the throw at 2nd. Overbay lead off the next inning which was not all that bad for the Pirates. I’ve noticed that when first base is open Overbay seems to have a high number of ground balls hit to the right side of the infield. Maybe I am all wrong about all this…but it’s something to consider in the big picture of sb’s for McCutchen this year.

by acr on Apr 6, 2011 1:22 PM EDT reply actions

If the Pirates change up their line up where a RH batter follows McCutchen there could be more opps for sb attempts.

by acr on Apr 6, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

wouldn't

the threat of McCutchen stealing result in more fastballs?

Ray Guilfoyle
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www.minorleagueball.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Apr 6, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe, I would guess that would depend on the game situation. Just speculation by me- but I suspect that with AM on first and LO at the plate that the opposition would want to stay away from throwing anything inside unless it was a k pitch with 2 outs and if Overbay has a weakness for the high/inside fb like many LHH do. Otherwise I think LO sees a lot of pitches away- maybe some fb maybe some breaking pitches. A lot of this depends on the pitcher/catch battery going that day as well and the ump behind the plate. On the other hand, if it were a lefty/lefty match up with LO things could be totally different.

by acr on Apr 6, 2011 1:49 PM EDT reply actions

Obp

What does the Pirates 1&2 hitters obp look like? Is it driven by walks and hits?

by faketeams on Apr 6, 2011 7:33 PM EDT reply actions

Neil Walker, he is not. Walker has just one bb through his first six games. Tabata on the other hand has an inspiring four. This brings up concerns and I’m not sure how the Pirates will address the issue. The Pirates were 27th in MLB last year for bb’s- 28th in OBP.

by acr on Apr 7, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Crawford

Crawford is more likely to win 3 categories. He has 50 SB speed while McCutch is more 40 SB so even if Crawford runs less he should still beat or be near McCutch. AVG and HR are very similar. I don’t see McCutch hitting 25. Where Crawford has the edge, and it’s a clear edge, is RBIs. He will beat McCutchen there. These two are very close but Crawford gets the nod for me. If you can get the Crawford owner to toss in a decent player I’d make the trade.

Jeremy Miedzinski
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@jrmiedzinski

by Jeremy Miedzinski on Apr 7, 2011 10:31 AM EDT reply actions

It will be interesting to see how many sb attempts McCutchen has through the weekend. Same for Crawford- as well as seeing where all Crawford hits in the line-up

by acr on Apr 7, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

And today CC is hitting lead off with Ellsbury dropped in the order.

by acr on Apr 8, 2011 12:29 PM EDT reply actions

Considering no runs, I like McCutchen more this year. I see 80 RBIs as a lock for him with around the 25 HRs as you suggested. BA should be a wash, and Crawford will steal maybe 10 or 15 (tops) more stolen bases; but I think Cutch’s power numbers should make the difference.

by Adam Thompson on Apr 10, 2011 2:39 PM EDT reply actions