Bust Watch: Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki set the world ablaze in September last year and is now one of the top choices in fantasy drafts everywhere. Owners are jumping on him early in drafts and he's often gone before the half way point of the first round in most leagues.  Being able to hit 30+ HR at the thin SS position makes you a valuable commodity but is Tulo worth banking a top 6 pick on?

Ray posted an injury report on Tulowitzki earlier and it's hard to not think he is injury prone. The Rockies slugging shortstop is having a hard time proving he can hold up over an entire 162 game schedule.

He hit 27 HR last year with 14 coming in a 15 game span and the other 13 coming in 107 games. Which performance is the real one to trust? The two thirds of a season worth of moderate power or the super human 15 game sample? If his september was a reflection of his true talent then he could hit 35+ HR this year. Maybe his September breakout is similar to that of Jose Bautista circa 2009 and we could see a run at 60 in 2011. Probably not but it would be fun until all the thin air skeptics and humidor tampering accusations came flooding in.

On the other hand you could believe 13 HR in 107 games is the real Tulo. That would mean looking at a 20-25 HR year in 2011. The nice thing is you don't have to worry about a full out bust unless he's injured all year because he is almost a lock to be a top 3 SS. Without great SB or AVG numbers, though, he would be a far drop from Hanley Ramirez and first round production. Tulo is capable of putting up MVP numbers but at the same time you're more likely to get 25 HR with a .290 AVG. Excellent numbers for a shortstop but not what you want to be getting with your first pick..

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