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Which SP to draft?

I'm in a standard 12-team, 5-keeper league, 5X5 with QS instead of Wins.

I tanked last year to get a good pick (#2 overall) to go along with these keepers:

1B Adrian Gonzalez

SS Troy Tulowitzki

3B Evan Longoria

OF Carl Crawford

SP Jon Lester

My offense is in great shape and it's almost a 100% lock that Dustin Pedroia goes #1 overall. Since QS is a category over wins, I believe it gives SPs some additional value and I'd like to pick up a nice #2 SP. Looking at who else is kept, these are the top SP available:

Matt Cain

Yovani Gallardo

Dan Haren

Cole Hamels

Roy Oswalt

Mat Latos

My gut says to go with Cain, Gallardo or Hamels. I'm a little concerned about Cain's strained elbow and I think Hamels is a little overrated. Gallardo has his issues, too. But Oswalt's on the downside and Latos pitched a ton of innings last year (think Verducci Effect). Haren pitched really well once he got to Anaheim, but he's got a lot of innings on his arm, too.

Any thoughts?

Thanks

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

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