Offseason NL-Only Keeper League Trade

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 12:00 PM EST in Baseball

Last night, I finalized a big trade in the UBA NL-Only keeper league which took about a week and a half to complete. Maybe it was longer. Here is the deal, and I will tell you my reasoning for making the deal.

I trade:

Andrew McCutchen - $20 L1

12th pick in minor league draft

18th pick in minor league draft

I get:

John Axford - $15 L1 (assuming I raise him)

Matt Garza - $15 S1

3rd pick in minor league draft

23rd pick in minor league draft

My reasoning after the jump:

First off, I have a mancrush on McCutchen, so it was not easy for me to deal him. Secondly, this trade was made with reader thomasps3, as he joined the UBA league last season.

My reasons:

1. I have plenty of offense with Matt Kemp, Mike Stanton, Jose Tabata, Gerardo Parra, Wilson Ramos, Devin Mesoraco, Dan Uggla or Aramis Ramirez (won't keep both), Danny Espinosa and Dee Gordon.

2. I have just one closer-Craig Kimbrel, so adding Axford almost guarantees me first place in saves

3. I have Bryce Harper who could start the season in the big leagues, If he does, I think he can put up at least a 15 HR and 15 stolen base performance in his rookie year, with some upside to those numbers. If he starts the season in the minors, he won't be down long, as Nationals' manager Davey Johnson loves him, and will push for him to get called up when they need a boost offensively.

4. I rolled the dice with adding Garza to the deal, I could have had Jhoulys Chacin in the deal instead, but his peripherals turned down last year, and that concerned me. Garza could get traded to the Rangers, but I see them going hard after Yu Darvish. If Garza does not get traded, I think he can put up another low ERA/low WHIP performance in 2012.

5. With this trade, I can focus on drafting a few solid offensive pieces in the draft, rather than spending too much on a closer.

So how did I do? Let me hear it.

Poll

Would you have traded Andrew McCutchen?

Yes

13 votes

No

40 votes

53 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Draft

Who’s likely to be at that #3 pick? I am guessing draftees from this past draft? I like that 3rd pick a lot more than the 12th in all likelihood, and the dropoff to #23 from #18 isn’t as much IMO. I like the trade, especially given the outfielders you already have.

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by Jason Hunt on Dec 9, 2011 12:09 PM EST reply actions

#3

Rendon
Bell
Bauer
Cole
Yelich
Cespedes-depending on where he signs
Carlos Martinez
Tim Wheeler
Gary Brown
possibly Arodys Vizcaino….don’t think he exceeded the service time
Zack Wheeler

Plenty to choose from

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

This.

My thoughts exactly

by James Westfall on Dec 9, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

Yikes

You paid for saves. Never pay for saves. Look back two years and see how many players are still closers. It doesn’t make any sense to draft a closer with a high pick or trade anyone of value for one. Only 10-15 teams will have the same closer as they did last season. That means that there’s generally 10 brand new players that will get an opportunity to close.

You should never trade someone because you have an excess at a given position, you should trade because someone else has a weakness at a given position.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 9, 2011 12:09 PM EST reply actions

roto vs dynasty leagues

this is a 12 team, 4 × 4 league where saves, and releivers, are more valuable than some starters. Good closers in this league go for $25-30, maybe higher. Since we are allowed to keep up to 15 players every year,. almost all closers are kept.
Right now, I see only 4 closers available in the draft…Papelbon, Bell, Francisco and whoever closes for the Reds.

Papelbon and Bell will go for $30+ in the draft.

I did have a hard time trading for a closer, but if I waited till mid-season to trade for a closer, I would have had to give up something close to McCutchen, and not get back the same return.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

In the draft

But it doesn’t mean there won’t be closers that show up mid-season. Where did Axford come from? Every year, closers show up, without exception. The attrition rate on pitchers is insane, and even crazier on relievers, which is why you should never trade a great position player like McCutchen for pitchers. Garza is coming off a career season and Axford while great, is easily replaceable.

Consider another league I’m in, I drafted Papelbon and Lidge to be my closers. Two years later, I’ve got Axford, Storen, and Motte, all of which where acquired via the waiver wire. It’s much easier to find closers than any other position on the wire.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 9, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

that's assuming

you have first dibs on the guy on the waiver wire. In this league, if a team below you puts in a request for the closer, you don’t get him. It’s not first come, first serve.

I normally would not have done this deal, that is why it took me so long to decide, but have two stud closers, and cheap, is valuable. And if I need a bat mid-season, I can trade one of them if needed.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions

You can't add players before they are closers?

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 9, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

of course you can

and I do that, but it doesn’t always work out. Trying to guess who is the next closer in x city isn’t the thing to do when your team is built to win. I won the league last year, and hope to compete this year as well.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

the TB Rays

aren;t they trading from excess- starting pitching- for a need…..like a first baseman right now?

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

They've traded a SP?

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 9, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

Shields

is in play and they just bought out two of Moore’s arb years……tells me loud and clear they are dealing one of them.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions

So what's the more likely scenario?

Friedman calling up managers and telling them he has an excess of starting pitchers and is willing to move one for less than market value because he so many OR other GM’s call up Friedman because they notice he has more starting pitchers than he needs.

Having an excess of a certain position isn’t a reason to trade someone for below their value. Sure, their value may not be at it’s peak to you, but to someone else, it will be.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 9, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

you tell me

The Rays need a first baseman with power…..

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

Says who?

All this Shields in a trade for Alonso talk is ridiculous. Alonso providing 20 home runs and crappy defense is no more valuable than 10 home runs and stellar D from Kotchman. Who else can they target on the market?

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 9, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

ridiculous?

why? Alonso can hit.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

with power too

Kotchman not so much…..as evidenced by him not having a team right now.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

But he can't play D

3 WAR is 3 WAR, regardless of whether or not it comes from defense or offense. So why would Tampa trade Shields for no gain?

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 9, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

because

not many teams use a 6 man rotation?

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

That's why teams have bullpens

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 9, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

bullpens

are for failed starters…..not good young starters.

You trade assets when you have a need elsewhere…..and teams know the Rays can’t afford Shields much longer.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

Davis is good?

Throw him in the long relief role, when someone gets hurt, there’s your replacement. Ideally, the Rays rotation would consist of Moore, Price, Shields, Cobb and Hellickson. With 2 wild cards, the Rays are contenders, which means they have no reason to trade Shields. Could Davis and/or Niemann move? Absolutely.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 9, 2011 2:33 PM EST up reply actions

and they will get

what for them? they won’t get an Alonso for either.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

Again, why do they need Alonso?

Why not trade them for bullpen help or depth?

Kotchman = Alonso

20 HR’s is shiny, stellar defense is just as valuable. If I was Friedman, I’d keep both Niemann and Davis because pitchers get hurt.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 9, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

One more point

I attempted to deal McCutchen straight up for a $27 S1 Cliff Lee or a $15 L1(assuming a one year raise here) Stephen Strasburg in two separate offers, but was denied.
Also was offered a 24 S0 Cole Hamels for McCutchen straight up, but decided against it.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 1:18 PM EST reply actions

Most of the time I dont trade McC for most anyone, let alone for a reliever..

but i think with your current team and the youth you have at OF, (and now at Closer) it makes sense to try and lock up the saves category…if you when HR’s or BA by 100 or by 1 its all the same, so you did a good job addressing a weakness, plus you moved up significantly in the draft which is always good.

the sign of a really good/fair trade is when both sides feel like they lost something and both sides feel like the gained something…not every trade is going to be a fleecing.

by James Westfall on Dec 9, 2011 1:34 PM EST reply actions

that was my thought process

and what pushed me to make the deal. I have guys who can replace McCutchens production last year in Gordon and possibly Harper, plus I have Mesoraco for a full season over the backup catcher I had last year.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 9, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions