Now Is The Time To Buy on Hanley Ramirez

by dudedudedude on Dec 3, 2011 10:07 PM EST

92 games, 385 plate appearances, 10 home runs, 55 runs, 45 RBI's, 20 SB's, .243 AAVG. and a .333 OBP.

Not exactly what you would expect from a top 5 pick in most drafts. Hanley Ramirez put up easily his worst season to date at the age of 27, a year when most players are expected to hit their peak. Why would anyone waste a top 5 pick on him again this year?

A top 5 player doesn't just fall off a cliff for no reason. There is always an explanation, and in Hanley's case, it's simple. He was unlucky. It's awful to hear that term, because we've all heard it way too many times, but Hanley is one of the unluckiest players we've seen in the past decade. Last season, he had a BABIP of .275. That doesn't sound too bad, as the league average was only .295. Hanley however, is no average player. Consider his BABIP numbers over the past 5 years:

2006: .343

2007: .353

2008: .329

2009: .379

2010: .327

His average BABIP over those 5 seasons is .346. His .275 in 2011 is 0.071 point drop from his career average. Matt Kemp was considered unlucky in 2010 when he posted a .295 BABIP, which was a 0.067 point drop from his career average. Why is Hanley suddenly considered to be a risky pick?

It's not as if he suddenly changed his approach, as his xBABIP remained at a more than respectable .337. His walk rate increased and he had the lowest pop out percentage of his career. He struck out a little more than in previous seasons, but it's not a number that should scare anyone away from drafting him. As bad as Hanley was last season, he still posted respectable counting stats in the limited amount of time that he played. Extrapolate his stats over a full season and you get:

678 plate appearances, 18 home runs, 94 runs, 77 RBI's, 34 SB's, .243 AVG. and a .333 OBP.

Ask yourself: "How many shortstops in baseball are able to provide this sort of production?" Once you're done with that, ask yourself: "How many shortstops in baseball are able to provide this sort of production while having the lowest BABIP of their careers and one of the unluckiest seasons we've seen in a while?" I'll set the over/under at 0. Hanley has hit the DL once in his entire career, and it was this past season. Compare that to other shortstops like Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins.

Hanley is an absolute steal right now at the draft. His ADP at FFtoolbox is 22.56. 14 picks behind Troy Tulowitzki and 6 picks behind Jose Reyes. You don't have to pay for his poor defense or for his attitude. Draft him with confidence at any point in the draft and enjoy the ride. At the end of the year, you will have an absolute steal of a pick at one of the weakest positions.

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Comments

But the issue

Is: will he be playing SS this year? If the Marlins sign Reyes (which is a distinct possibility). Hanley’s a 3B. Are those #s respectable for a 3B? Yes. I actually like Hanley this year.

by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 4, 2011 2:20 AM EST reply actions

He has SS eligibility this season

He played enough last season to get it.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 4, 2011 3:26 AM EST up reply actions

agreed

main concern is drop in power the last few seasons.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 4, 2011 7:52 AM EST up reply actions

i agree

the trop from an ISO of .239 in 2008 to .136 (even though he was hurt) last year is a VERY alarming trend.

by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 10, 2011 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

well that's if he's a marlin

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by Lawrence Taylor The Real LT on Dec 4, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions

one thing

we should think about is how he reacts to the Marlins signing Jose Reyes…..assuming they do sign him.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 4, 2011 7:53 AM EST reply actions

I wouldn't worry about it too much

If anything, I’d say it motivates him, even though I’m not a fan of these assumptions. Adding star players to a team is usually a reason to work harder.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 4, 2011 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

Reyes signed with the Marlins

Speculation is Ramirez moved to 3b or CF

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 5, 2011 12:38 AM EST up reply actions

Saw that

Great move on their part. Reyes is a flat out stud in real world baseball.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 5, 2011 12:50 AM EST up reply actions

agree'd

by Lawrence Taylor The Real LT on Dec 4, 2011 9:50 AM EST reply actions

is this because

you just drafted him in our league haha?

by dbacksfaninGA on Dec 4, 2011 10:28 AM EST reply actions

Not at all

It;s just criminal how low he is going in drafts.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 4, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

Hanley

Any analysis on Hanley Ramirez has to look at his GB/FB ratio, which has been around 1.50 for the last two seasons, and had been in between 0.90 and 1.25 the rest of his career.

That’s not a matter of luck, and definitely explains a drop in power. BABIP gods won’t be fixing that

-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Dec 4, 2011 11:24 AM EST reply actions

Right

And a decrease in fly balls should increase his BABIP, not hurt it. I did not say he would return to being a 30+ home run hitter however. Is it unreasonable to expect 20+? Absolutely not. ISO is BABIP dependent, which is why it’s not something you want to look at in a case like this.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 4, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Iso

Iso is not BABIP dependent, average is. Iso is dependent on hitting flyballs (for the most part, groundballs don’t turn into doubles or homers). I agree that hitting more grounders should, in theory, increase his BABIP, but one of the things that made Hanley special was the combination of average, power, and speed.

I don’t see a reason that the average shouldn’t rebound somewhat (although decreasing line-drive rates tell me it likely won’t return to where he was), and it doesn’t seem like the speed is gone. The power is much more concerning to me.

Three straight years of declining ISO and LD% during a player’s peak is really concerning to me.

-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Dec 4, 2011 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

Doubles and Triples are balls in play

How is ISO not BABIP dependent? With a huge drop in BABIP, you are obviously going to have a drop in ISO. It doesn’t have the same correlation factor as average does, but none the less, it has an impact.

Hanley’s fly ball percentage was increasing significantly as the season was progressing. Hanley still has a special combination of power, average and speed.

“678 plate appearances, 18 home runs, 94 runs, 77 RBI’s, 34 SB’s, .243 AVG. and a .333 OBP.

Ask yourself: “How many shortstops in baseball are able to provide this sort of production?” Once you’re done with that, ask yourself: “How many shortstops in baseball are able to provide this sort of production while having the lowest BABIP of their careers and one of the unluckiest seasons we’ve seen in a while?”"

I’m still waiting for someone to provide me another shortstop who can do this.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 4, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

BABIP and ISO

Because differences between BABIP and xBABIP tend to get reflected in a variance in singles (according to a study by THT and an article in their yearly publication). Hanley’s ISO didn’t drop because of bad luck, it dropped because he started pounding the ball into the ground instead of driving it (reflected in growing GB% and lowering LD%). What’s more, it’s not a one year trend, this has been happening for the last two seasons.

To your point that his flyball percentage went up as the season progressed as the season went on, his FB% by month trended as follows: 27%, 33.8%, 33.3%, 37.8%, 33.3%, and his GB/FB ratio went 2.21, 1.50, 1.50, 1.16, 1.50. Other than a good month in July, nothing in those numbers supports your assertion. Even his “good” July was worse than his career averages.

As to your extrapolated stats, Hanley’s ranks last year among SS for those categories (using your extrapolated numbers) were:

HR: 5th
R: 3rd
RBI:6th
SB: 4th
Avg: 20th
OBP: 11th

I’m not really impressed by those rankings. I guess if the question is “who can match this exact skill-set and give you 18 HR and 34 SB?” the answer is probably a short list. If the question is “who can provide a similar aggregate value?”, the list becomes a bit longer. In his prime, Hanley was top 1-3 for SS among all of those categories. He simply has not been there the past two years.

You also can’t use career numbers for BABIP, because BABIP has to be based on batted ball data from the season in question, not historical seasons. If your line-drive percentage drops, your BABIP is going to drop, regardless of what Hanley did in 2008. His “unluckiness” is relative to his xBABIP for 2011 (which you referenced) not his career BABIP.

I like Hanley as a player ,and there’s obviously a chance he recovers some of his form, but at this point the onus is on Hanley to perform. We’re talking multi-year trends that are as much reflected in his peripherals as they are in his surface stats. Did he get unlucky in terms of BABIP last year? I think it’d be hard to argue that he didn’t. But has there been a fundamental change in the kind of player Hanley Ramirez is, based on LD%, GB/FB? I think that’s just as apparent. I hope he rebounds, but I’ll have to see it.

-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Dec 4, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

Oh boy

33.3% GB’s over 2 games, meaningful stuff.

What if we give Hanley normalized luck? Those numbers are the absolute worst Hanley can perform at his position, provided he remains healthy. How many more SB’s does he get if he gets more singles on those grounders? How many more RBI’s does he get with those extra hits? How many many runs? The HR’s aren’t the issue, because no one should be worried about 18 home runs from a shortstop to begin with. There’s a great chance Hanley would be in the top 3 in average, on base percentage, stolen bases, runs and RBI’s with a normal season. In a 5×5 league, that’s looking pretty good. There isn’t a single shortstop in the game right now that can match Hanley’s all around production.

I wasn’t pointing out the career BABIP to say that’s what he deserved, just saying he was unlucky with regards to previous seasons. The xBABIP is what he deserved, although xBABIP have various flaws within themselves.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 4, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

And what about the 33% FB (not GB as you said) during those other months? We can’t cherry-pick stats here, take his entire body of work into account. He had a single good month last year (and even then it didn’t match his previous production).

The phrase “there isn’t a single SS in the game right now that can match Hanley’s all-around production” is not synonymous with “There is no SS in baseball that is more valuable than Hanley”.

Why are you just discarding his decreasing power like it doesn’t matter? Why shouldn’t we be worried about 18 HR from a SS, when we can draft Tulo and get at least 12 more? Yes, being a well-rounded player is nice, but it is aggregate production that counts.

The power difference matters even more when you consider the power drop all around baseball and the increase in stolen bases. Each of those trends makes a good-hitting HR hitter more valuable now relative to 3 or 4 years ago, and makes value that is tied to steals less-so. I think this should be pretty intuitive.

Your assessment is that being drafted at #22 for Hanley is “criminal”. Where should he be drafted then? Certainly not where he was being drafted a couple of years ago, when he WAS hitting .330 with power and speed and counting stats. It’s not like anyone is dissing him when he’s being taken, on average, at the end of the 2nd round. When you factor in risk related to injuries (I believe I remember seeing that he may not be ready for spring training, but correct me if I’m wrong), I don’t think that placement is so crazy.

-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Dec 4, 2011 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

Not discounting the other months

Just saying, an August sample of 2 games is irrelevant.

Because power is only one category. You’re drafting a player who’s virtually a lock for a .300 average, somewhere in the neighbourhood of 100 runs and 100 RBI’s, 30-40 steals, and somewhere around 20 home runs. In head to head leagues, 12 home runs is 2 home runs a month, something that you wouldn’t notice. Rotisserie leagues, 12 home runs makes a bigger difference but not to the point where it replaces all around value. Sure, SB’s are increasing, but finding SB’s from players who provide value across the board is not. Draft a Dee Gordon, get your SB’s and get killed everywhere else. It’s to the point where people are ripping on SB’s so much that it has become undervalued.

Hanley should still be a top 10 pick. Longoria, Bautista, Tulowitzki, Cabrera, Votto, Pujols are the only players I’d rank ahead of him. OF is way too deep to justify taking it that early in the draft.

If I told you a shortstop was putting up a line of .315/.400/.475 with speed from any other SS than Hanley Ramirez, I guarantee managers would go crazy over him. Because it’s Hanley and he’s not putting up 30/30 seasons like he used, it’s as if he isn’t a superstar anymore.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 4, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions

I don't disagree

Your last paragraph I’m in agreement with. I think where we differ is the likelyhood of Hanley putting up that .315 / .400 / .475 line.

.315 isn’t out of the realm of possibility for Hanley, but it’s important to note that it is 10 points higher than his career average, and it’s a threshold he has surpassed twice in his (admittedly young) career. I don’t think many people look at Hanley and assume he’ll hit .315 at this point.

A .400 OBP is also pretty optimstic, given that the last time Hanley did that was when he batted .342. Given his walk rate and assuming a .310 or so average (above his career norm) I think a .380 OBP is more appropriate estimation.

You’re also assuming a .160 ISO. That’s also not outlandish at all. But is it a guarantee? Only if Hanley reverses his GB/FB trends mentioned above.

I recognize that Hanley’s value changes based on league settings. It could just as easily go the other way, as it does in my league, where we tend to decrease the value of SB’s relative to a roto leagues (we are points-based).

As for what Hanley is likely to do, you said he’s “virtually a lock for a .300 average, somewhere in the neighbourhood of 100 runs and 100 RBI’s, 30-40 steals, and somewhere around 20 home runs”.

Historically, Hanley has only broken 100 RBI once (next best for his career was 81), and 40 seems like an optimistic upper limit to his SB totals. I think it’s reasonable to expect 100 runs or more, though he hasn’t surpassed the total since 2009.

-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Dec 4, 2011 3:52 PM EST up reply actions

He’s had a slugging percentage of at least .475 in every season but the last, so I would say he’s more likely to hit it than not.

As for his counting stats, you have to remember where he has hit in the lineup. For his first few seasons, he was a leadoff hitter. For the past 2, he’s been a clean up hitter. A hitter like Hanley shouldn’t have an issue posting those numbers from the 3 hole, assuming he stays healthy of course.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 4, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

Surprised nobody has mentioned his shoulder surgery, sciatica problem, and leg fracture

I agree he is going too low, but there is a non-zero chance he has lingering issues.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Dec 4, 2011 1:47 PM EST reply actions

Not a fracture

Sorry

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by Robert L. Bishop on Dec 4, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

Is it anymore than other players?

I didn’t see anyone knock down Adrian Gonzalez for his shoulder surgery last season. I’m not seeing anyone knock down Reyes for his hamstring injuries. People are looking for reasons to knock him down because of the season he had, the same thing is happening with Pujols.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 4, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Reyes

I think Reyes is always mentioned with the injury caveat, and more than a few publications dropped Gonzalez in their rankings due to the shoulder concerns (though to be fair, he went from mid-first round to end of first / beginning of the 2nd, not as big of a drop as Hanley).

As for Pujols, I think people are just saying that, at the age of 31, he’s gone from “historically incredible” to “elite top 5 player this year”. I don’t think the criticism of Pujols is unfair, it’s just what happens to players when they hit their 30’s. He’s still quite well regarded

-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Dec 4, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions

Yet Reyes is going ahead of Hanley in drafts

It’s criminal that people have such short memories with regards to elite players.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 4, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

Reyes

As a person who has never been crazy about Reyes (and in general I’m pretty risk-averse) I can’t disagree with you there. Reyes is a sexy player when everything is going right, I’ll just never trust his hamstrings enough to pay the price on him.

-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Dec 4, 2011 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

It's true that it's more of a focus for some players than others

And by the way, I’ve seen plenty of people knock on Reyes for the hamstring. I think part of the deal with Ramirez is that because it happened during the season, we had more access to reports about the state of his health. When you know more, it’s scarier. There were reports of Hanley having to stand up in the back of a plane while it flew cross-country because his back was bothering him so bad. His shoulder problem did affect his swing. And, with a player like Hanley that has known attitude issues and who has been accused of having less than an ideal work ethic, it’s natural to wonder if he’s going to put in the rehab necessary to be 100% when spring training starts. Maybe he will, but it’s an uncertainty.

I agree that he’s being undervalued, but not terribly so. I don’t like to deal with unknowns at the top of the draft, and I suspect I’m not alone in that.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Dec 4, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

Keeper Value for Hanley Now?

I understand for 2012 HanRam still has SS Eligibility, however, I own him and DWright in a Dynasty league, how big of a hit to HanRam’s value now that he won’t be SS eligible after the 2012 season? Should I be looking to deal HanRam, or David Wright?
Thanks,
Jax

by Jax5 on Dec 5, 2011 9:27 AM EST reply actions

Just enter a prediction for Hanley into the formulas I came up with

Let’s assume a healthy Hanley has 200 hits, 22 home runs, 100 RBI’s, 90 Runs, 35 Stolen Bases, 65 walks.

3B = 0.9909H + 10.181HR + 2.131R + 2.088RBI + 3.076BB (+15SB) = 1547.692 Points

SS = 0.9756H + 15.375HR + 2.066R + 2.574RBI + 9.5SB + 3.363BB = 1527.805 Points

Given the state of the 3rd base position last season, it makes sense that Hanley would still have just as much value as he did at SS. If you feel 3rd base is due for a bounce back year, the values for each stat will change at which point Hanley may lose a good chunk of his value. It all depends on how you think the future of the position plays out. Personally, I’d trade Wright, because I think Hanley is still an elite player if he plays 3rd base.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 6, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the Help

I think I’ll start testing the waters on Wright

by Jax5 on Dec 6, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

Andrus is a solid player to target

He should end up somewhere in the 1100-1200 point range in a full season. Wright is usually in the 1200-1300 range but is aging and can’t seem to stay healthy. Those numbers are based on a down year for 3rd basemen so you could see the value of the 3rd basemen dropping significantly which would put Wright back into the same range of Andrus.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 6, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions