Fantasy Baseball 2012: Nick Markakis

by KenWo4LiFe on Dec 3, 2011 7:01 AM EST in Baseball

Every couple of years I fall in love with someone and must have them on my team at all costs. A few years ago it was Nick Markakis. He had just come off of a 2007 season where he hit .300/.362/.485 with 43 doubles, 23 homers, 112 RBI's and 18 SBs.

So very early in the 2008 draft, I selected him. He quickly became one of my favorite players in fantasy and reality. He hit .306/.406/.491 with 48 doubles, 20 homers, 87 RBI's and 10 steals. All of this and he was only 24 years old!

Unfortunately, he never took off from there. In 2009 he dropped to .293/.347/.453 with 18 homers, 101 RBI and 6 SBs. Then came 2010 and the bottom really fell out as he hit .297/.370/.436 with 12 homers, 60 RBIs and 7 SBs. Last year, the downward trend continued as he triple slashed .284/.351/.406 with 15 homers and 73 RBI's.

Markakis peaked early. I don't know if it is because he lost interest after he signed his big 6 year/ 66 million contract? I don't know if it is because he is playing for the perennial cellar dwelling Orioles? Maybe it was just because the league adjusted to him.

I will tell you one thing though. I am staying away from Markakis this year. At least that is my plan. Come draft day, I'll probably have visions of the guy I loved in 2008 and draft him. Don't make the same mistake as I probably will. Leave Markakis for somebody else. He's been trending downward since his 24 year old season and its unlikely he will ever see the awesomeness of his 23 and 24 year old seasons again. His OPS dropped from .897 in 2008 to .756 last year.

Ray was a little tougher than I am, and didn't even put him in his top 50 list. I would probably rank him somewhere in the mid 30's. Of course, I once had a fanboy crush on him.

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Markakis

I think there were a few others who asked why I didn’t rank him in my top 50. I will take a look at him in my final rankings in 2012, but the downward trend is an issue.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 3, 2011 9:39 AM EST reply actions

are there any stats

which explain the reason for the drop in his performance?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 3, 2011 9:39 AM EST reply actions

Growing LD%, shrinking FB%

but growing infield FB%, which means more popups, and fewer home runs. Possibly caused by an O-swing% that is consistently up from 2008. Pitchers found a hole in his swing? He can’t lay off the high heat? Trying to find a good pitch chart for him.

by pooptallica on Dec 4, 2011 12:09 AM EST up reply actions

His BABIP was a bit lower than career average last year

Down to .300, from an average of about .333, possibly due to the increase in popups, but possibly due to some bad luck, since his LD% was also up. And his HR/FB% for 09-11 is significantly lower than it was from 06-08.

by pooptallica on Dec 4, 2011 12:22 AM EST up reply actions

You can probably have some fun with this

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/batter/455976/?pitchers=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=1%2F1%2F2011&to=12%2F2%2F2011

Markakis’s PitchF/X data. Not sure I have the patience to sift through it, but I’ll bet there are some clues somewhere around in there.

by pooptallica on Dec 4, 2011 12:28 AM EST up reply actions

OK, I had some patience

From the PitchF/X data, it looks like Markakis is getting pounded inside, and swinging at a lot of inside pitches off the plate, which could be leading to off-the-hands contact. He’s making more contact, and striking out less, but with a lower BA and BABIP, and swinging more outside the zone, so it’s possible he’s making worse contact as pitchers figure out he can’t lay off the inside pitch.

by pooptallica on Dec 4, 2011 1:14 AM EST up reply actions