Offseason AL-Only Keeper League Trade

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 11:00 AM EST in Baseball

"Did you load up the cooler with the coldies? Where did you order the fried chicken from this time? I am starving."

I was invited to take over a team in an AL-Only keeper league a few months ago, and it took me awhile to respond due to various reasons, but I finally decided to join the league last Monday. Half of the owners in the league participate in the UBA NL-Only league, where I have been an owner for the past 5 years, so that made my decision easy. I just had so much going on at work, and I participate in 4 other money leagues, so I wanted to make sure I had enough time to devote to this league before joining.

I am taking over a team that finished in 10th place and has no minor league roster that could help via trades or promotion, so the idea of blowing up the team was my first consideration.

The best keeper on the team was a $17 Jon Lester who will be in the last year of his contract in 2012. A few of the other possible keepers on the roster include:

$11 S1 Matt Capps

$10 S0 J.P. Arencibia

$23 S0 Howie Kendrick

$27 S1 Alexei Ramirez

$10 S0 Austin Jackson

$25 S0 Adam Jones

$5 S0 Alexi Ogando

After contemplating what to do with this roster, which took about 5 minutes, I decided to blow it up, and am willing to deal anyone on the roster. Before I could even inform the league that was my intention, I got a text from Fake Teams reader thomasps3 asking for Jon Lester. He is a Red Sox fan, so I expected to hear from him. Actually, he was one of the guys who kept asking me when I would make my decision to join the league. Did he have an alterior motive?

The details of the deal are after the jump:

After about two days of text messages, I finally traded Lester, and in return I received a $10 S1 Eric Thames and the 2nd pick in the minor league draft. There were several offers discussed, and I pushed hard for Jurickson Profar, but he wasn't budging. One of the offers included Anthony Gose, Hak-Ju Lee and Eric Thames, which I thought long and hard about. I almost accepted that offer, but liked some of the guys that would be available with the 2nd pick more.

I now have the 2nd and 5th picks in the MLD, and here is a list of players available:

Xander Bogaerts

Danny Hultzen

Bubba Starling

Travis d'Arnaud

Jake Marisnick

Cheslor Cuthbert

So, I would be very happy with 2 of these guys.

I am currently looking to deal Adam Jones, and have made a few offers to other owners, but am waiting for their response. I have received offers for Austin Jackson as well, and he will probably be dealt within a day or two.

The 2012 auction draft will be loaded with hitters that I can use to deal or build for the future, including Dustin Pedroia, Alex Rodriguez, Carl Crawford, Victor Martinez, Robinson Cano, Ben Zobrist, Mike Napoli, Alex Gordon and some guy named Albert Pujols, among others.

So, how did I do with my first AL-Only league deal? Profar would have been nice, but with Lester in the last year of his contract wasn't enough. There will be other opportunities to trade for Profar after draft day, as thomasps3 has a roster that could complete in 2012. I think he knows his phone will be buzzing once the draft is over and the season is in full swing.

Poll

Did I get enough for Jon Lester?

Yes

12 votes

No

59 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 36 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Was going to say

That I prefer Lee+Gose over the 2nd pick, but actually, it’s really close. Might even depend on how many minor leaguers you can keep and for how long. Would suggest that who you pick should be based on how long it’s going to take to make the team competitive – no point taking Hultzen, say, if it’ll take 2-3years to get competitive. Bogaerts or Starling would both be better picks there

by A Behemoth on Dec 25, 2011 11:09 AM EST reply actions

Profar

I would of milked him of Profar myself, he might of considered if you waited Ray, but I also thought you could of gotten a lil more myself. I dont view Eric Thames that high until he proves to me he can shrink the strikezone.

+1 On taking either Boagerts or Starling

by High Heater on Dec 25, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

we can keep 5 year to year

I am not sure who I would take at 2, as there are several options.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 1:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Would prefer the pick then

Also gives an incentive to pick someone like Hultzen who will be in the bigs quickly, so you can fill the slot again next year.

by A Behemoth on Dec 25, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

pitchers

are usually taken later in the minor league draft, as bats are at a premium in the major league auction and in the MLD, so I wonder if I can get him later should I trade for a late first round pick.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

Did you have to take Thames?

I can’t see him providing any value.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 25, 2011 12:59 PM EST reply actions

Thames

I have him for 2 yrs at $10 and hope he can become a 20 home run hitter.
I am rebuilding so I can take the chance here.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 1:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

His bat is iffy as is

And his defense is extremely poor. With Gose, Bautista, Rasmus and Marisnick all in the system, there really isn’t any room for him to provide value, on the Blue Jays anyways. Not sure if any other team would take him.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 25, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

Also don't like Thames much

For the same reasons really.

by A Behemoth on Dec 25, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

Gose and Marisnick

will be in the big leagues in 2012? I don’t see that. Gose is closer than Marisnick, and Rasmus is a bit of a wildcard right now.
When do you expect Gose and Marisnick up? I see 2013 at the earliest for Gose and 2014 for Marisnick.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

Could see Gose this season

His bat is really bonus at this point. Rasmus is fine, and I’d take him over Thames 8 days a week. I can’t see Thames providing any value at all, add on that contract and its ugly.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 25, 2011 8:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Thames

Like i said….I am rebuilding, so I took the chance he may work out. Shander sees some promise in him, so I will go with his advice here.
Rasmus may be on thin ice….the potential is there, but he has disappointed thus far. What makes you think that he will be fine now that he is a Blue Jay?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 10:48 PM EST up reply actions

There is no upside to Thames

He’s 25, has average power, strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk much, and plays poor defense. If there’s any signs of his bat slowing down, his defense isn’t going to keep him in the lineup. He’s no more than a bench player.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 25, 2011 11:10 PM EST up reply actions

And Rasmus

Has tons of upside. Yes, he had a poor season but not many 24 year old players can put up 4.3 WAR while playing center field. He has tons of talent, where as Thames does not.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 25, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions

Thames,

Is not guaranteed to make the big league team. I think that Travis snider will be given every opportunity to be the everyday LF. If he falls flat in spring training then Thames will be next in line. I think you will regret not taking gose though.

by highvoltagerob on Dec 25, 2011 7:20 PM EST up reply actions

Thames

has performed much better than Snider has, so I miss why he would get the opp before Thames.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 10:49 PM EST up reply actions

Snider is out of options

Unless the Jays are ready to give up on a former top 5 prospect in baseball at the age of 23, Snider will get first crack at the starting job. His defense is much better than Thames and even with a shaky bat, it can keep him in the lineup.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 25, 2011 11:12 PM EST up reply actions

maybe

we’ll see for how long. Could Snider be included in a trade….change of scenery guy?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 11:30 PM EST up reply actions

Not sure how much value he has

Does any team really have a pressing need for a left fielder that strikes out 30% of the time? The Jays have already invested in him, so they don’t lose anything by holding him, where as a team loses assets by trading for him where he could still suck.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 25, 2011 11:39 PM EST up reply actions

one other point

in this league, bats go for far more than they should, and its a $260 salary per team league…..not $120 like the FT dynasty league.
Then again, guys in the waiver pool come in at $10, but bats like Thames won’t be available in the waiver pool after the draft.
Could I get him cheaper at the draft? It all depends on his role come Opening day.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 11:50 PM EST up reply actions

I just wouldn't sign him

I don’t see the appeal in a player who has limited upside when you are rebuilding.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 25, 2011 11:54 PM EST up reply actions

he's not the main piece

in the deal

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 26, 2011 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

the 2nd pick

who would you take, if available at the 2:

Marisnick
Starling
Bogaerts
d’Arnaud
Hultzen
Cuthbert

I am sure I am missing several. I also own the 5th pick.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 2:13 PM EST reply actions

Marisnick

does he start in A+ or AA in 2012? He had a very good season in 2011 in A ball hitting .320-392-.500 with 14 HRs and 37 SBs.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 2:17 PM EST reply actions

Pick

From what you have said, I would go something like:
d’Arnaud
Hultzen
Marisnick
Starling
Bogaerts/Cuthbert

The last three are penalised quite heavily because they are so far from the majors, and you might not want them to take up a minor league slot till 2015. If you don’t care about that, it’s much closer.

by A Behemoth on Dec 25, 2011 2:48 PM EST reply actions

they will be gone this year

if I don’t draft one of them

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

True...

But suppose you take Hultzen (as someone who will probably lose rookie eligibility in 2012). If you want a bat, sub in an appropriate name. That way you will have Hultzen cheap in 2013/14, and can choose another prospect to fill his minor league slot.

So , in some ways, the question should be, would you prefer Hultzen and another prospect next year over a Starling/Bogaerts type who takes up a minor league slot for 3-4 years.

by A Behemoth on Dec 25, 2011 7:28 PM EST up reply actions

Thames is basically worthless to me

I would have waited for something, anything else.

by pooptallica on Dec 25, 2011 8:20 PM EST reply actions

Thames

what am I missing here with Thames….I thought he performed pretty decent for a rookie. If his name was Marisnick, people would be gushing.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions

The 4:1 K:BB rate just doesn't do it for me

But if he can get anywhere near his AAA numbers, I will happily eat my words.

(OK, so I’m slightly exaggerating, it’s 3.84:1)

by pooptallica on Dec 25, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions

If Marisnick put up these numbers, people would be so disappointed

I understand that defense doesn’t matter in fantasy baseball, but it matters in keeping a mediocre bat in the lineup, which Thames is unable to do.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 25, 2011 11:13 PM EST up reply actions

he's a rookie

and you are talking like he will never make improvements at the plate. Some time ago, some guy named Jose Bautista languished as he changed uniforms year to year….and now.
Not saying he can pull a Bautista at all, just saying, he was a rookie last year, and had 41 XBH in less than 400 at bats.

He got more at bats than Snider last year. Why is that and why would they go back to Snider?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 25, 2011 11:48 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think he will ever make substantial improvements

He can’t hit offspeed pitches. I personally don’t think Snider is the long term answer there anyways but the Jays could have some serious depth in the OF if they keep Gose and Marisnick along with Bautista and Rasmus. Thames has no upside compared to these other players and the Jays aren’t at a point where they care about getting role players to compliment their stars.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 25, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions

Fringe prospect playing in a strong depth position for a team that is rebuilding.

It’s a big risk no matter how you look at it. His defensive woes make his position as a starter for the Jays suspect at best. Even if he does continue to hit (he showed clear weaknesses high inside and to breaking pitches that teams were starting to exploit last year) at his current rates he’s competing with Snider/Davis and maybe Encarnacion for LF playing time and is highly likely to be pushed from behind in the near future by a far better prospect in Gose.

You throw in that the likes of other better defensive fringe prospects are lurking at AAA this year (Sierra), the clubs propensity for trading to fill positions of weakness, injury history of the player. At best Thames is a shot in the dark worth very little on the trade market, he’s a waiver wire claim if he starts to get hot at best, and droppable pretty much at any time.

by TtD on Dec 27, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

The Pick

Is the key to me. Since you are rebuilding, I might be tempted to take at least one of the picks with either d’Arnaud/Hultzen, as you might be able to flip them for further away prospects once the season starts. Especially if either of the two make the team out of Spring training.

Follow me on Twitter

Writer at FakeTeams
Writer at MLB Daily Dish

by Jason Hunt on Dec 25, 2011 9:49 PM EST reply actions

Thoughts

Juat saw this, so I thought I would post my thoughts. First, I think Jon Lester, while clearly a top of the rotation pitcher, has several factors, both good and bad, that need to be weighed. First the Pro’s:
1. Plays on a first division team in the Red Sox that give him a good chance for a lot of W’s.
2. Pitches lots of innings and can be an anchor to my staff, which was completely bereft of SP’s.
3. He has a huge chip on his shoulder from the collapse that happened last September, when fried chicken and video games were being channeled instead of rah rah bulls**t type stuff.

Con’s:
1. Lester is on a three year downtrend in terms of K/9 rate, which is something I look at as a leading indicator.
2. Competition in the AL East always makes me nervous, especially with an offense in Tampa that couldn’t be as bad as it was last year.

Overall, I do think the #2 pick in a draft that was very deep was a fair price to pay for Lester. Thames for me was simply a throw-in that allowed me to keep my prime farm bullets in Jesus Montero, Jurickson Profar, Hak JuLee, and Anthony Gose in order to scoop players during the season after the draft, when cap space increases substantially…

by thomasps3 on Dec 25, 2011 10:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions