UFC Ultimate Fighter Finale 14: Picking the Odds

Looking ahead to tomorrow night's UFC card on Spike TV, here are the odds for the entire event, courtesy of www.BestFightOdds.com

A good "first draft" approach at sizing up a UFC card and how to rank your picks, is to look at the odds. Guys that are 2 to 1 favorites or more are usually big favorites for a reason, so don't over-think the pick. Sorting the odds from the biggest favorites to the even fights, here is what we get:

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The great thing about the UFC is the favorites don't always win, so here are two strong hunches on underdogs who will win their fight:

Louis Gaudinot +199 over Johnny Bedford by a TKO in round 3.

Gaudinot, the fighter with the obnoxious green hair, has the same small, compact body frame that gave Bedford lots of trouble in handling in his fight with John Dodson. Bedford looks like a miniature Jon Fitch (top 5 UFC welterweight) but he lacks his doppelganger's chin. Gaudinot trains at an excellent MMA-striking gym, Tiger Schulman, so look for Gaudinot to sprawl and brawl his way to a late KO as Bedford's chin wears down over 15 minutes.

Roland Delorme +110 over Josh Ferguson by submission.

Both fighters tend to finish with submissions, and Delorme has the longer frame and better credentials than the Kentuckian, Ferguson.

So with those two underdog picks, here is a sample set of picks for tomorrow's UFC event:

10-Bryan Caraway-Dec-3
9-Diego Brandao-Sub-2
8-Tony Ferguson-KO-3
7-Dustin Pague-KO-2
6-T.J. Dillashaw-Sub-3
5-Michael Bisping-Dec-5 ** the coaches fight is a 5 round fight
4-Steven Siler-Sub-1
3-Stephen Bass-Dec-3
2-Roland Delorme-Sub-3
1-Louis Gaudinot-KO-3

Check back later this weekend for more breakdown of the fights, and some links on where to make your fantasy MMA picks for this UFC card.