MLB Trade Rumors: Mat Latos Traded to the Reds for Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Others

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 17, 2011 5:05 PM EST in MLB Trade Rumors

I was out getting some Christmas shopping done this afternoon when the news broke that the Reds had traded Yonder Alonso "plus others" for Padres starter, and potential ace, Mat Latos. As the afternoon grew old, the names of the "plus others" came out, and I was floored. Here are the details of the trade:

Reds get: Mat Latos

Padres get: Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger

Here is ESPN and SiriusXM's Jim Bowden's reaction:

JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
Deal would have made more sense if the Reds had included Alonso or Grandal...but NOT both! Reds win short term..Padres win deal long term.

I couldn't agree more. I have to say I was very surprised at how much the Reds gave up in this deal for Latos. Don't get me wrong, I like Latos a lot, even pitching in Great American Ballpark.

More of my reaction and fantasy impact of this deal after the jump:

My second reaction to this deal was what are the Padres going to do with 4 first baseman? Yonder Alonso joins Jesus Guzman, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Blanks. Well Bowden reported that Alonso will be the Padres starting first baseman, and Rizzo will go back to AAA for "more seasoning", or could be traded. Bowden speculated that Padres GM Josh Byrnes could offer Rizzo to the Cubs, who need a first baseman and are rebuilding, for Matt Garza. I imagine the Padres would have to give up more than Rizzo for Garza. The Cubs could get more from the Rangers for Garza, possibly pitching prospect Martin Perez.

In addition to Alonso, the Padres received catching prospect Yasmani Grandal, Edinson Volquez and Brad Boxberger. Here's a quick take on the two prospects in the deal:

Yasmani Grandal

He played at three levels in the minors in 2011, hitting a combined .305-.401-.500 with 14 HRs and 68 RBI. Here is the breakdown of how he performed at each level, courtesy of Baseball-Reference:

Year	Age	Lev	G	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	22	A+-AA-AAA	105	374	69	114	31	14	68	59	97	.305	.401	.500	.901
2011	22	A+	56	206	47	61	14	10	40	41	57	.296	.410	.510	.920
2011	22	AA	45	156	20	47	15	4	26	13	39	.301	.360	.474	.835
2011	22	AAA	4	12	2	6	2	0	2	5	1	.500	.667	.667	1.333
2 Seasons			113	402	73	122	32	14	69	63	101	.303	.401	.488	.888

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/17/2011.

As you can see, he continued to hit well once promoted to AA, where he hit .301-.360-.474. I assume with Nick Hundley set to start at catcher in San Diego in 2012, Grandal will tear up the Pacific Coast League and could be called up at mid-season.

Brad Boxberger

Boxberger pitched at two levels in the minors in 2011, in AA and AAA, pitching in relief. He dominated in his 62 innings of work, saving 11 games, with a 2.03 ERA, a 0.968 WHIP, and an excellent K/9 of 13.5. He has to harness his control as he walked just over 4 batters per nine innings, but limited hitters to a .137 BA in AA and a .163 BA in AAA, so he has closer potential, and we could see him closing in San Diego sometime in 2012.

Speaking of harnessing his control, Edinson Volquez had trouble with his control in 2011, his first year returning fromTommy John surgery. Volquez walked more than 5 batters per nine innings in 2011, and ended the season with a 5.71 ERA, 5.29 FIP and 4.08 xFIP in 108.2 innings of work. But, along with the bad, there was some good. He struck out 8.62 batters per nine innings, and kept the ball on the ground, as his 52.4% ground ball rate indicates. Moving from Great American Ballpark to Petco increases his value quite a bit in my opinion, as he was victimized by the long ball in 2011, giving up 19 home runs in his 108.2 innings, for a 1.57 HR/9 rate. That should come down pitching in Petco Park.

Alonso will be moving to a team where he will start everyday, and while he may not hit for the power i expected, he should still hit for a solid batting average and drive in some runs. I project him to hit 14-17 home runs with around 80 RBI and a .290 batting average in 2012.

The big piece in this deal is Mat Latos, as he moves from pitching in Petco to Great American Ballpark. At first glance, one would think it hurts his fantasy value, but I think he will be fine. He went 9-14 in 2011, with a 3.47 ERA, 3.16 FIP and 3.52 xFIP in a career high 194.1 innings. He struck out 8.57 batters and walked just under 3 batters per nine innings and kept the ball on the ground at a 43% clip. The only concern I have is whether his HR/FB rate will increase moving out of Petco, as he is a bit of a fly ball pitcher (41.1% FB%), so it could happen. But as long as he keeps the ball on the ground and maintains his strikeout rate, the increase in home runs may not hurt him as much.

In his career, he has pitched just two games in Great American Ballpark, where the Reds put up a triple slash line of .111-.149-.267 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP. Sure, small sample size, but the NL Central also lost two of the best power hitters in baseball in Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols. I think Latos maintains his value with this trade, which could result in more wins in 2012.

I like this deal for the Padres a great deal, as it sets them up very well for 2012 and beyond. It also helps the Reds this season, as they were desperate for a solid starting pitcher. He is under team control for the next 4 seasons, and becomes arbitration eligible after the 2012 season. This deal probably makes the Reds the favorite to win the NL Central in 2012.

Poll

Whose fantasy value increases the most in this deal?

Mat Latos

31 votes

Yonder Alonso

72 votes

Edinson Volquez

68 votes

Yasmani Grandal

14 votes

Brad Boxberger

10 votes

195 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Volquez

Could be the hidden gem in this deal if he’s not broken beyond redemption. He’s got to get his walks down, but Petco is so pitcher friendly that his home run total will inevitably go down. He could be quite a steal.

I love what the Reds are doing in this deal. They’re giving up a ton, but I think they watched Pujols leave St. Louis and Prince about to leave Milwaukee and now they’re going in for the kill.

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by Paul Rice on Dec 17, 2011 5:42 PM EST reply actions

Wow, what a haul for the Padres.

Mesoraco no longer has Grandal breathing down his neck, which is nice.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Dec 17, 2011 5:48 PM EST reply actions

Yeah

I might have given up Alonso OR Grandal, plus Volquez, but all three seems like way too much for a pitcher whose velocity and K rate were down significantly last year. Latos moving from PetCo to Great American could really kill him.

by pooptallica on Dec 17, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

K rate

was down from 9.2 to 8.6, so not as much as you said.He struggled in the first half, but was his old self in the second half, where he raised his K/BB from 2.45 to 3.83.

I don’t mind the move to GAB for Latos.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 17, 2011 10:51 PM EST up reply actions

Hm

Didn’t realize he had turned it around quite so much in the 2nd half. Still, as a fly-ball pitcher, GAB could be total kryptonite.

by pooptallica on Dec 17, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions

But....

Would you veto this if it were a trade made in a keeper league?

I think Volquez could indeed be the wildcard….. he couldn’t have asked for a much more pitcher friendly environment. I wouldn’t veto this trade.

Anybody else?

by Bob_24798 on Dec 17, 2011 8:17 PM EST reply actions

no

I am against vetoing trades in all leagues

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 17, 2011 8:20 PM EST up reply actions

I don't veto many trades either.... has to be extreme.

Curious if anybody saw this as being lopsided……
Of course most fantasy leagues do not factor in salaries or contracts.

by Bob_24798 on Dec 17, 2011 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

I commish two.

And I only veto in case of collusion. Every manager has their reason for making deals.

KEMvP

"You know Joe, if Keith Jardines last name was Johnson, the nickname 'The Dean of Mean' wouldn't work at all."

by T.C. Engel on Dec 18, 2011 3:24 AM EST up reply actions

from Bill Pettit over at Beyond the Boxscore

Latos has had the benefit of pitching in one of the most pitcher-friendly venues for the past few years, but his home/road splits are pretty even. His career FIP home/road split is 3.25/3.30, and of course that’s driven by his seemingly unaffected HR/FB rate. Moreover, his BABIP was unaffected by pitching away from PETCO.

He does have one of the lower GB/FB ratios in the league among starting pitchers (1.03), but the high frequency of fly balls hasn’t bit him like it might other pitchers. That tells you that his success isn’t simply tied to PETCO Park.

Latos is also a guy that, bottom line, keeps runners off base. In his first three years he’s averaged striking out 23.5% of all batters faced and only walked 7.7%. Since 2009, Latos is one of 16 starters to average over 8 K/9 and less than 3 BB/9.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 18, 2011 12:47 AM EST reply actions

Nice info here

Didn’t check his HR/FB%. Odd, for a fly-ball pitcher. Always been a Latos fan so I hope you are right and the move doesn’t affect him much.

by pooptallica on Dec 18, 2011 5:25 AM EST up reply actions

Volquez gets the biggest boost

You have to wonder if a guy’s control can be cleared up just by knowing that he doesn’t have to be perfect all of the time.

by walnut falcons on Dec 18, 2011 1:17 AM EST reply actions

MLB Channel

on XM was discussing the fact the Bud Black is just what Volquez needs to cure his control problems. Volquez’s value certainly does increase quite a bit. Black will work with him to reduce the walks, and the HRs that left GAB will be fly ball outs in Petco.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 18, 2011 9:28 AM EST up reply actions

Trade comparison purposes...

Mike Axisa compared this trade to what the NYY would have had to give up:

Montero
Hughes
Romine
Warren

No thanks!!!

by robg62 on Dec 18, 2011 6:58 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Axisa writes for

RiverAveBlues

by robg62 on Dec 18, 2011 6:59 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

yes

he writes for Fangraphs and MLBTR as well……

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 18, 2011 9:32 AM EST up reply actions

guess you don't want the NYY

to win then.
But Latos is under team control for 4 more years, so the price will be high.

Would you rather give up these guys for Felix where you have to pay him quite a bit more in salary, and the cost in prospects, or trade them for a guy who comes cheap and is one of the better young pitchers in baseball?

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 18, 2011 9:32 AM EST up reply actions

The Latos love is a little surprising, Ray

Coming from such a big Dodgers fan. Is it easier to express now that he’s gone from the NL West? Or are the Padres just like your kind of dumb little brother, who you’ll always let be the Raiders in Tecmo Bowl because he’ll never figure out that Sam Graddy is actually way faster than Bo Jackson?

by pooptallica on Dec 18, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions

lol

funny you should say that. Maybe I am a little biased, as I was a Latos owner in the UBA NL-only keeper league the last two seasons, so I watched him a lot.
He did have a big second half last season. He may be a bit of a head case, but he can be dominating at times.

Ray Guilfoyle
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www.minorleagueball.com
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 18, 2011 9:58 AM EST up reply actions

Felix or Latos?

Easy answer – King Felix in a New York minute….

by robg62 on Dec 18, 2011 11:56 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Dave Cameron on Latos in GAB

In his career, he’s actually thrown more innings on the road (244.1) than at home (185.1) and his underlying performances have been nearly identical. While this doesn’t mean that he hasn’t benefited from pitching in Petco, he’s not a guy who relies on HR prevention to succeed, and the ability to run a 3-1 strikeout to walk ratio travels well from one ballpark to another. Latos will likely see his HR rate rise a bit with the move to Great American Ballpark, but even with a slight uptick in home runs allowed, he’ll still profile as one of the better starters in the National League.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 18, 2011 9:27 AM EST reply actions

Alonso

he’ll get a huge increase in playing time. He never was going to supplant Votto in Cincy. As a right hander, petco won’t kill Alonso as much as it does lefties like Rizzo. Alonso will win the 1b job and now it seems the Padres are trying to get rid of Rizzo.

I also like the move for Grandal. He was gong to have a difficult time being behind Mesoraco, though the Reds do like time sharing at that position. Anyway, he should see the majors sooner rather than later as the Reds seem to take it very slow with young guys and now it seems he’ll be up for enough time this year to make a fantasy impact. I’ll be targeting him in my NL Only keeper draft.

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by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 18, 2011 10:31 AM EST reply actions