Fantasy Baseball Thoughts: Ryan Braun, Yu Darvish, Mike Stanton and Others

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 14, 2011 7:00 AM EST in Fantasy Baseball Thoughts

I hosted a fantasy baseball chat on Monday night, and had a great time. In the chat, I was asked who Mike Stanton would be most like in his prime. My first thought was Adam Dunn, but Dunn has never hit 50 HRs, and I think Stanton could hit 50 HRs in his prime, so the first name that came to me was Mickey Mantle.

That response was followed with a comment from dudex3 in the chat saying the comp was "insane". I got a similar text from a friend, so I looked up Mickey Mantle's stats over at Baseball-Reference, and here is what he did in his first three years in the big leagues:

Year	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
1951	19	96	341	61	91	11	5	13	65	8	43	74	.267	.349	.443	.792	151
1952	20	142	549	94	171	37	7	23	87	4	75	111	.311	.394	.530	.924	291
1953	21	127	461	105	136	24	3	21	92	8	79	90	.295	.398	.497	.895	229

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/13/2011.

Let's take a look at Stanton's first two seasons:

Year	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
2010	20	100	359	45	93	21	1	22	59	5	34	123	.259	.326	.507	.833	182
2011	21	150	516	79	135	30	5	34	87	5	70	166	.262	.356	.537	.893	277

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/13/2011.

Granted, I am not stupid enough to say Stanton will be a Hall of Famer like Mantle is, but he has hit 56 home runs by the age of 21, while Mantle had hit 57 homers by the same age. I used the Mantle comp due to the potential to hit 50 home runs, and to be honest, he was the first name that popped into my brain. I guess I could have said Mark McGwire or Sammy Sosa.

More fantasy baseball thoughts after the jump:

As you well know by now, Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun tested positive for a banned substance/PED in October during the playoffs. He immediately denied that he took a banned substance and asked for a second test, which came back normal. I have read plenty of articles on both sides of this story, but I think he will have a hard time proving he did not take a banned substance. If he is suspended for 50 games, he will obviously drop in mixed league drafts to the second or third round, but I don't see him dropping much in NL-Only leagues. Why? Because, he could put up a 20-20 season once he returns with a .300+ batting average. Is that first round caliber stats? It's pretty close.

The deadline to submit bids on Japanese ace Yu Darvish is today at 5pm EST. I think all these teams that were quoted as being not interested are not telling the truth. I see the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Nationals, and Blue Jays getting involved, and maybe even the Reds. The Reds invested $30 million on Aroldis Chapman a few years ago, and they need an ace, or ace-like starter in the worst way. Plus, their window for winning is open right now, so why not invest in a young starter who could be your ace for the next 5 years? It would not surprise me to see the Reds winning the bidding on Darvish.

With that said, another team I expect to be in hard on Darvish is the Rangers. They were so close to winning last year, and just lost C.J. Wilson to their rivals, the Angels. They need an ace to head their rotation, so I would not be surprised to see them win the bidding on Darvish, especially since they recently inked a huge television deal.

Aramis Ramirez signed with the Brewers on Monday, and I wonder if they will play him at third base or at first base. I think he could see regular time at first base, assuming they go with Taylor Green to play third. As it stands now, it appear ARam will play third, with former prospect Mat Gamel playing first base, but I wonder if he is just a AAAA player at this point. Even still, I think Ramirez will have another solid year at the plate, assuming good health, as Miller Park proved to be a better home run park than Wrigley Field in 2011. Per ESPN's Park Factors, Miller Park ranked 6th in the NL with a 1.062 HR factor, while Wrigley suppressed homers by about 2% last year, as they wrung up HR park factor of .987. As a result, I could see Ramirez approach 30 homers in 2012.

It appears the Mets have some very serious financial problems but also we heard this from John Harper at the New York Daily News today:

Finally, there was Alderson at the Mets’ annual Christmas party on Tuesday, admitting that Johan Santana may not be ready to open the season in April as he continues to rehab from his 2010 shoulder capsule surgery.

On top of losing Jose Reyes to free agency and now this terrible news on Santana, one has to wonder if the Mets financial issues will force a sale of the team and possibly a fire sale. They are already looking to deal starter Jonathan Niese, which to me does not make sense in the wake of this news on Santana. Could David Wright be next?

Poll

Who wins the bidding on Yu Darvish?

Rangers

29 votes

Yankees

32 votes

Red Sox

5 votes

Blue Jays

42 votes

Reds

4 votes

Nationals

16 votes

128 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Reds have Johnny Cueto

Possibly the most underrated “ace-like starter” in MLB. Compare his 2011 to that of Jamie Shields, plus he did it in a much shorter season.

by pooptallica on Dec 14, 2011 12:18 PM EST reply actions

Seriously?

He was extremely lucky last season. He is a fine pitcher to have in your rotation, but to say “ace-like starter” is a huge stretch.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 14, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions

Crap

I had a long, well-reasoned, and statistically supported response, and then I forgot to Google what league-average HR/FB% is in a separate tab.

Cueto has made an adjustment that has made him into an extreme ground-ball pitcher who pitches to contact. Trust me that the stats support this. His BABIP will rise somewhat in 2012, as will his HR/FB%, but I can see a 3.50 ERA season happening pretty easily.

by pooptallica on Dec 14, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

So that makes him "ace-like"?

There’s a lot of aces in baseball then.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 14, 2011 1:34 PM EST up reply actions

Meh

At this point we are just arguing semantics. Cueto is a good #1. Not an ace. “Ace-like.” And better than Darvish in MLB, I would be more than happy to bet.

by pooptallica on Dec 14, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

Now this is truly crazy

Cueto has put up one good season, and he didn’t even pitch a full season. He was around Pavano, Colon and Vazquez last season. Are any of them number 1’s? Darvish is the best Japanese pitcher we’ve ever seen. He’s durable, throws 7, yes, 7 pitches and is still 25. Darvish is the far superior pitcher. Ask any GM, analyst, scout or coach and they would pick Darvish, 11 times out of 10.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 14, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

Ok, well, I disagree

Cueto had a good season in 2010, and has improved every year since joining the league in 2008. Yes, 2011 is probably a slight outlier, but I seriously doubt it’s an absolute fluke. Oh, and he’s also only 25. To compare him to Colon, Vazquez, and Pavano is kind of ridiculous, since they are all veterans on the decline. Are they #1’s? No, of course not. Is Cueto? He’s got about a thousand times better chance of it.

And I’m not totally dismissing Darvish, but “best Japanese pitcher we’ve ever seen” is still a Japanese pitcher who has never faced MLB-level competition.

by pooptallica on Dec 14, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

Age doesn't matter when assessing value

3 WAR put up by a 25 year old = 3 WAR put up by a 60 year old. If you’re only getting 3 WAR out of your best pitcher, you’re probably in trouble unless you are built with 7 pitchers capable of pitching like that. One season where Cueto induced ground balls at an above average rate and suddenly he’s a number 1? Charlie Morton had 60% ground balls, he must be a number 1 too.

Until late this season, Matt Moore had not seen MLB-level competition, would you say that Cueto was better than him? No one is saying Darvish is going to come over here and pitch to a 1.5 ERA like he does in Japan, but it’s not just any pitcher that can put up those numbers with absurd peripherals to boot.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 14, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

If I'm trying to win this year

I take Cueto over Darvish. Also, you are the one who brought up age. And to say age doesn’t matter is, well, wrong. I shouldn’t have to explain why.

I know you just like to argue, so I’m just going to leave it at “we disagree.”

by pooptallica on Dec 14, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

I didn't say age doesn't matter

You misread. All I said was that age isn’t a factor in wins above replacement.

If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.

by dudedudedude on Dec 14, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

My main point being

The Reds do not “need an ace, or ace-like starter, in the worst way.” Not that they (or any team) wouldn’t love to add a good pitcher, but it’s not like they’re running Blaine Gabbert out there every 5 days.

by pooptallica on Dec 14, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions