Fantasy Impact: Altitude-Addled Catchers
As everybody knows, the talent pool for catchers in fantasy baseball is essentially a desolated, post-apocalyptic wasteland. If you're a manager scouring this blighted landscape, pausing here and there to kill the occasional marauding demon or zombie, then you're going to generally find slim pickings. Finding a catcher who can not only produce sufficiently but also stay healthy and consistent for the entire year is one of the most dubious exercises a manager can undertake. Thus, we have to scavenge for value in any form it may take. It may seem cruel and unusual to have to carry John Jaso or Jorge Posada's corpse on your roster for half a season, but this is the world we live in, folks.
Today the Colorado Rockies signed veteran catcher Ramon Hernandez to a two-year deal to theoretically be their starting catcher. To clear room for him, the Rocks sent erstwhile receiver and stathead favorite Chris Ianetta to the Los Angeles Angels for pitching prospect Tyler Chatwood. One of these players just gained value, and the other probably saw theirs sink like a rock. After the jump, we'll take a look at which one is which, and how that information might prove useful in the Sysyphusean quest to find a halfway decent fantasy catcher.
Ramon Hernandez has had a long and spotty career from a fantasy standpoint. I should know; I've had him on my keeper league team since his second year in the league. That's not because I swear some sacred allegiance to Hernandez (though he wouldn't be the worst player to inspire an ill-conceived fan club). It's because, once again, finding a good catcher sucks. Hernandez could get your hopes up one year with a 20-homer campaign, then miss half the season with injuries and disappoint the next. His career has caused me more than one migraine over the past decade. A Hall of Famer he ain't, but even with the inconsistent seasons, he has generally been an above average catcher with decent power.
Now he's projected to get the lion's share of the playing time while playing his home games at Coors Field. Yes, Coors Field. That magical hitter's haven that once upon a time turned even the crappiest of hitters into highly-sought-after commodities. Remember back when Neifi Perez was considered a top 10 shortstop? That's what Coors Field does. It's almost scary.
Of course, Coors Field isn't the complete offensive madhouse that it used to be. Whether it be the humidor or longer infield grass or general better pitching, offense has generally gone down in Colorado over the last half of the decade. Just last season, Coors Field had a park factor of only 117. I say "only" because if you go back to the year 2000, the park factor was 125. In 1999, it was 127. I can't even fathom that. If you take the mound in that hitting environment, you aren't a pitcher, you're cannon fodder.
Even though Coors isn't raising offensive levels like it used to, it still plays very friendly to hitters. Hernandez proved he could still hit last season by OPSing .788, which ranked him eighth among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances. Hernandez has always been pretty reliable for decent power output and the move to the new ballpark should artificially augment his counting stats to make him particularly useful for fantasy purposes. Keeper leaguers will thumb their noses because of his age, but I like his potential to be a cheap, stopgap producer at a horrible position to find quality at. Hell, if Coors Field can make Miguel Olivo look semi-respectable, why can't it provide a temporary boost for Hernandez?
--The other catcher involved in today's roster shuffle was Chris Ianetta, a player with whom I've had a bizarre fascination with for a few years now. Ianetta has profiled as a take and rake guy for most of his career, the typical low-average, good-OBP slugger who tends to make stat nerds like me swoon. Unfortunately, Ianetta's managers didn't feel the same way and never really warmed up to him, and he always seemed to be stuck in a platoon with a better glove guy or, inexplicably, Miguel Olivo. Now with the move to the Angels comes a change of scenery and a chance to break out with more playing time. Um, right?
Well, I'm concerned. I've always been a big proponent of Ianetta, even in 2010 when he hit a miserable .197 and saw his power vanish into thin air. With this move, though, I'm extremely bearish about the chances that he'll live up to my unreasonable expectations.
For starters, we're looking at a guy who had a .975 OPS in Coors Field last year, compared to a piddling .587 on the road. For his career, he's OPSed .869 at Coors, and .707 everywhere else. He won't be hitting in Colorado anymore, at all. Obviously we can't just look at home/road splits and assume a guy is going to stink because he's moving teams, but this isn't exactly encouraging. Not to mention, he's moving to a relatively pitcher-friendly park, in the better league, and will be in a division with a couple of the best pitcher's parks in the majors. Eegads.
Secondly, if Mike Scioscia ran the awesomely awesome Mike Napoli out of town because he couldn't stand Napoli's walk/strikeout combo, how in blue hell is he going to be able to stand Ianetta? Ianetta is like Napoli-Lite, and he had an historic hitter's haven inflating his numbers for years. Pardon me if I don't think this is a match made in heaven. Ianetta has always been a curiosity because of his power, but even my rose-colored glasses are starting to pale over. With this move today, buyer beware.
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Hernandez gains value?
I’d think Rosario and Mesorasco are the one’s who benefit from these transactions.
If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.
not in 2012
The Rockies aren’t paying Hernandez $6.4 million to watch Rosario play the majority of the time. I do see Rosario getting more the PT in 2013, however.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 1, 2011 7:22 AM EST up reply actions
Hernandez
he can also play first base, as a rightly platoon to Todd Helton, so Rosario could see 2-3 starts behind the plate in 2012.
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 1, 2011 7:24 AM EST up reply actions
Hernandez/Rosario
Ramon hasn’t played over 100 games since 2008, and as Ray mentioned, he can play first. We could be looking at a pretty even 50-50 split, with upside for Rosario to get even more than that if Hernandez were to get injured (a distinct possibility in his age 36 season).
by Robert L. Bishop on Dec 1, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
This sort of assumes...
…that Jim Tracy will actually do something that would be beneficial for the Rockies. Not a safe assumption at all.
Your writing is the only thing giving your alcoholism any credibility. -Stewie Griffin
Not to be a dissenting voice
But back in the 3M days (Mauer, Martinez, McCann), I think your argument would hold water. Today, though, there are legitimately 7-10 catchers who will post respectable numbers, and 4-5 who will be absolute studs. Let’s start with the studs:
Matt Wieters – 2nd half of 2011, OPS’d to a .840 number, and also increased his walk ratio dramtically while adding more power. With a better lineup around him, I think he has an outside chance to go 30/90/.275 in 2012. That is a beast like line, and pitchers absolutely love pitching to him. I have him as a legit top 5 C in 2012.
Victor Martinez – Posted a godly-like .850 OPS, and chipped in with a clubhouse influence that was sorely missed in Boston. Hit to a .330 average, and topped 100 RBI for the 5th time. Even better, he played in just enough games to qualify at C, and he is more than likely to play more DH going forward than the everyday rigors behind the dish, further reducing the wear and tear factor.
Mike Napoli – OPS’d a 1.061 line in 2011. Enough said, and why in hell’s name did the Angels get rid of this guy like he was a bad nightmare. Even with a regression coming, he should post a line similar to the .850 lin of VMArt in 2012. In peak power years at age 30, the Texas park is custom built for his pull power swing.
Alex Avila – Another player from Pembroke Pines, FL(Napoli being the other C on this list from there), Avila comes from good bloodlines, and actually improved as the season went on, posting a first half line of .286/.370/.506, which in an of itself was damn good, to a .306/.409/.507, good for a .916 OPS in the 2nd half. Wowsers.
Carlos Santana – I know, I know. People will point to his .239 average and say, ok, not so much. But a closer look reveals a guy who walked almost 100x in 2011, hit 27 HRs, and had 79 RBI. I would expect at least a bump to around the .260-.275 range based on an abnormally low .263 BABIP in ’11, which will show itself in his counting stats, probably bumping a 2012 line to look like this: 25 HR/95 RBI/.275 AVG. ’Nuff said.
Buster Posey – Missed 115 games in 2011, but he should be back with a vengeance in 2012. I would think a stronger version of 2010, when he posted a 18 HR/67 RBI/.305 AVG line, is in line for Posey in 2012. Pure gut call, but his pedigree and rookie season lead me to believe he is the next young C to make his imprint felt all over the NL.
Joe Mauer – Which version of Joltin Joe will show up in 2012? One can only guess, however, one thing will be certain, count on a .300 average. Also, remember this: Mauer is entering his prime power years, as he is entering his age 29 season. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him back in double digits for homers, along with an accompanying jump in RBI, based on the fact that the Twins offense can’t be as bad as it was in 2011. Or can it?
Brian McCann - Oh well, just another 20 HR season, along with an ok average and decent RBI numbers. Again, people forget how young McCann is, as he is only entering his age 28 season. It wouldn’t surprise me to see his power numbers jump, perhaps an outside chance at 30 this year, and a line that just keeps on keepin on: .270/31 HR/ 85 RBI
With these 8 guys right here, there is no reason any 12 team mixed leagues should be stretching for a Ramon Hernandez type unless something has gone drastically wrong on draft day. If you want to make the argument that -only and deeper leagues should target him in the back 1/3 of the draft, I can agree with that. However, the alternatives that are out there are simply far superior, and you should be able to get one of these guys no later than the 10-13 rounds, and maybe a tick later.
I agree
I think catcher is a relatively deep position. I feel more comfortable waiting to grab a catcher than I do a third baseman or shortstop.
by Robert L. Bishop on Dec 1, 2011 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
what about 2 catcher leagues?
don’t most leagues require 2 catchers?
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 1, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Not as many as used to. I actually don’t play in a league that does right now.
IIRC, 2 catcher leagues tend to be either 10 or 12 teams primarily (not exclusively), and in those cases, you’re definitely looking at 20-24 catchers being drafted.
I can’t remember if we covered it or if it was someone else, but if you used the Red Sox platoon last year you would have ended up with an extremely effective catcher.
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that might
have been Jack…where has he been?
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 1, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
I played in one of those once
Never again. Don’t really see any rhyme or reason to it.
by Robert L. Bishop on Dec 1, 2011 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
Most leagues
are public leagues that go 1C slot, however, that argument seems accurate considering a lotof guys on this site play in deeper leagues, however, the vast majority of leagues are the mixed 12 team, 1 catcher slot types….

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