NL MVP Results: A Rant on the BBWAA's Decision

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 7:00 AM EST in Baseball

PHOENIX, AZ - SEPTEMBER 26: Matt Kemp #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers warms up on deck during the Major League Baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on September 26, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Yesterday, the BBWAA announced the winner of the National League MVP award, and the winner was Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun. Braun had a terrific season, helping the Brewers make the playoffs. He was definitely one of the two candidates that were in the running for the award.

But the BBWAA got this one wrong. Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp had the better year and should have, in my opinion, won the NL MVP award.

I was going to write that they got the American League MVP vote wrong as well, but with that vote, they showed that they could break down the barriers that some have about voting for starting pitchers for the MVP award. We all know how important an ace starting pitcher is for any team in baseball, or even your fantasy team. The price on the free agent market for an ace starting pitcher is around $120 million over 5 years, just ask Cliff Lee. Or CC Sabathia. Or Clayton Kershaw in the very near future. So, voting Tigers ace Justin Verlander as the American League MVP, while different, showed us that the BBWAA was willing to push the envelope and vote for the right guy, and put old school thinking on the back burner.

The rest of my rant after the jump:

Last year, the BBWAA put old school thinking on the back burner when they chose Mariners Felix Hernandez as the American League Cy Young award winner, even though he did not have the most wins. The BBWAA looked beyond surface stats like wins and considered a starting pitcher on a last place team by voting for King Felix. Hernandez's 13 wins the lowest win total for a Cy Young award winner ever, as voters looked at his league leading ERA of 2.27, batting average against of .212, and 249 2/3 innings pitched, along with his complete dominance of the league, with little to no run support from him team, to award him the 2010 Cy Young award.

Heading into the NL MVP award announcement, I thought that the BBWAA would overlook the case against Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp. That case was that he did not play for a winning team. Well, the Dodgers were 82-79 this season, but they did not make the playoffs. For some reason, these voters think the MVP has to play for a team that made the playoffs. Somehow they decided that Braun was the most valuable Brewer. The Brewers are a team that includes Prince Fielder, who is a top 5 first baseman in all of baseball who might be more valuable over the term of his next contract than Albert Pujols. The Brewers are a team that includes starting pitchers like former AL Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, and Yovani Gallardo and a closer named John Axford who tied for the NL lead in saves. And Braun was the most valuable Brewer somehow.

Meanwhile, Kemp played with the likes of one really good pitcher, NL Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw, and that's about it. Here is a look at the lineup the Dodgers ran out there on a daily basis:

C - Rod Barajas

1B - James Loney

2B - Juan Uribe/Aaron Miles

SS- Jamey Carroll/Dee Gordon

3B - Casey Blake/Juan Uribe

LF - Jerry Sands/Tony Gwynn Jr./Juan Rivera

CF - Matt Kemp

RF - Andre Ethier

Pretty pitiful lineup, no? And now the Brewers lineup:

C - Jonathan Lucroy

1B - Prince Fielder

2B - Rickie Weeks

SS - Yuniesky Betancourt

3B - Casey McGehee

LF - Ryan Braun

CF - Nyjer Morgan

RF - Corey Hart

I am not sure how Ryan Braun could be the Brewers most valuable player in that lineup, or that he stood that much above teammate Fielder. It is obvious that Kemp was the Dodgers most valuable player when you look at the talent Don Mattingley had in his clubhouse on a daily basis.

Some of the arguments against Clayton Kershaw in the NL Cy Young award voting this season was that he pitched in the NL West, the division with less than stellar lineups in San Diego and San Francisco. That, and he pitched in a pitcher park and in a division with two of the best pitchers parks in the National League in Petco Park and AT&T Park.

But for some reason, this argument did not work in Kemp's favor. He played 99 of his 162 games in those same pitchers parks. Here is how he hit in those pitchers parks this season:

Split	GS	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	BAbip	sOPS+
SFG-AT&T Pk	9	32	4	8	1	0	2	2	5	14	.250	.351	.344	.695	11	.444	119
SDP-PetCo Pk	9	37	7	15	3	1	5	5	2	5	.405	.436	.622	1.058	23	.452	227
LAD-Dodger Stad	81	295	57	97	15	19	63	25	37	75	.329	.401	.580	.981	171	.379	188

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/22/2011.

Not too shabby. He hit .330, with 20 HRs, 70 RBI, 68 runs scored, and 32 stolen bases in 99 games hitting in three of the best pitchers parks in all of baseball.

The BBWAA ran this headline on their site yesterday announcing Braun's win: "2011 NL MVP, Ryan Braun Slugs His Way to Award".

He barely beat out Kemp in BA, slugging percentage, OPS and extra base hits, while Kemp lead the NL in HRs, RBI, runs scored and he stole 40 bases. This from the BBWAA article announcing the NL MVP award:

Braun led the league in slugging (.597), on-base plus slugging (.994) and extra-base hits (77) and ranked second in batting average (.332) and runs (109), fourth in RBI (111), tied for sixth in home runs (33) and seventh in stolen bases (33). He hit .351 in 148 at-bats with runners in scoring position.

Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp, who flirted with the Triple Crown all season, received 10 first-place votes and was the runner-up with 332 points. Kemp topped the NL in home runs (39) and runs batted in (126) and was third in the batting race at .324 behind New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes (.337) and Braun. Kemp also led the NL in runs (115) and total bases (353).

I don't know about you, but that writeup seemed to prove my point that Kemp should have won the NL MVP award.

Here are their 2011 stats to help you decide who should have won the NL MVP award:

Braun

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	150	563	109	187	38	33	111	33	58	93	.332	.397	.597	.994
5 Seasons	729	2879	506	898	187	161	531	96	242	560	.312	.371	.563	.933
162 Game Avg.	162	640	112	200	42	36	118	21	54	124	.312	.371	.563	.933

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/22/2011.

Kemp

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	161	602	115	195	33	4	39	*126*	40	74	159	.324	.399	.586	.986
6 Seasons	787	2862	464	840	140	28	128	457	144	250	740	.294	.350	.496	.846
162 Game Avg.	162	589	96	173	29	6	26	94	30	51	152	.294	.350	.496	.846

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/22/2011.

Kemp had more black numbers, meaning he lead the league, than Braun, but did not win the MVP. After the announcement yesterday, Kemp was quoted saying he is shooting to go 50-50 next season. That's right. 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases. Quite lofty, but would that be enough?

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Braun Created Value to his team, Kemp did not

Kemp did win awards for his offensive year (silver slugger) and this award is most valuable player.
Kemp had the better year, but Braun created more value – and remember, this is the Most Valuable Player award. To find out why, you need to think at the margin. That means thinking of how much value one more victory would create.
We can do that with the help of a statistic some pointy-headed number crunchers invented not too long ago. It’s called Wins Above Replacement, or WAR. It tries to measure the difference between a major league player and a hypothetical replacement player brought up from the minors. With Matt Kemp in the lineup instead of his AAA replacement, the Dodgers won 10 extra games. Braun’s WAR was 7.7.
Again, Kemp clearly had a better 2011. But at the margin, Braun was far more valuable. Without Kemp, the Dodgers would have won 72 games. With him, they won 82. That’s not a big difference at the margin. It’s nice to finish above .500, but there’s no real difference between a 72-win season and an 82-win season. You miss the playoffs either way.
Braun took the Brewers from 88 wins to 96 wins. There is a world of difference between 88 wins and 96 wins. It’s the difference between missing the playoffs and winning the division. Every single win that Braun created was absolutely crucial to the Brewers playing in the postseason instead of watching it from home.
So even though Braun created fewer wins, each of them was extremely valuable. That’s why he’s the MVP.

by RickHoneycutt on Nov 23, 2011 7:38 AM EST reply actions

crock

The Brewers made the playoffs because they added Greinke and Marcum.

here is a tweet from Keith Law:

keithlaw keithlaw
@
Yes. This wasn’t even close. Embarrassing result for the BBWAA. RT @clinthulsey Logic picks Kemp right?
17 hours ago

And Baseball Nation’s Rob Neyer also did not think it would be close:

I wasn’t willing to make an American League prediction, but I’ll be surprised if Kemp doesn’t take National League honors, and perhaps by a lot.

The top five on my ballot, if I had one:

1. Matt Kemp
2. Ryan Braun
3. Joey Votto
4. Roy Halladay
5. Clayton Kershaw

So, explain how Steve Carlton win the NL Cy Young award on a 59 win team back in the 70’s.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 7:54 AM EST up reply actions

Carlton’s season was one of legends. When Kemp has a year like that, give him the MVP.

Brewers had pressure on them since spring training to win. Dodgers where out of contention in May. Kemp had no pressure (other than his contract) to produce those numbers.

So the WAR is also based on the team and the situation.

If you want the award to be strictly based on offensive numbers, the name of the award should be named. The Cy Young Award is not called Most Valuable Pitcher award.

by RickHoneycutt on Nov 23, 2011 10:10 AM EST up reply actions

pressure?

so adding marcum and greinke added more pressure for Braun? I don’t buy the pressure argument.

Not many players have gone, or come close to, going 40-40…..many pitchers have won 27 games, and pitched better than Carlton.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

WAR

The last I checked a WAR of 10 is better than a WAR of 7.7. Yes Brewers made the playoffs because they added pitching- Greinke and Marcum.

by robg62 on Nov 23, 2011 8:10 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

So...

Rickhoneycutt, you’re saying that Kemp was less valuable than Braun essentially because his teammates were crappier? That makes no sense. Using your interpretation of WAR, you could basically make the argument that Prince Fielder was MVP also.

Your writing is the only thing giving your alcoholism any credibility. -Stewie Griffin

by Paul Rice on Nov 23, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions

Not only Prince could have been MVP........

…but Pujols or Berkaman could have won it.

The award is most valuable player…not most offensive player.

And how are you valuable to your club, by helping your team win.

by RickHoneycutt on Nov 23, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions

By this logic...

…you’re saying that if Kemp were on the Brewers instead of Braun, the Brewers would not have made the playoffs. That’s just silly. Again, I just don’t think we should consider quality of teammates when debating a player’s MVP candidacy.

Your writing is the only thing giving your alcoholism any credibility. -Stewie Griffin

by Paul Rice on Nov 23, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

You know that by using that logic, the Brewers would have won 98 games with Kemp instead of 96 games with Braun, right?

Personally, I don’t care. I have nothing invested in the NL MVP race, but your use of WAR (which we are all already familiar with, because its been widely used for years now) is so incorrect that it’s sad.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 23, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

This was extremely counter-intuitive

You’re basically arguing that a player on a playoff team can never win because of the players around him. This award goes out to one single player, not to a team. When voting for MVP, the question you need to ask yourself is: If I knew how each player would perform before the season started, which would I have chosen? At which point, you can make a case for either Kemp or Braun.

By your definition, you want the player that provides the highest percentage of his value to his team. That is a very shaky standpoint. Basically, the Win Probability of a team with a player against the Win Probability without that same player, at which point Upton is the MVP and not Kemp, so I’d be careful in heading down that path.

Braun was a better hitter regardless of park, as he holds a lead in wRC+ which is a park adjusted stat. Kemp plays a tougher position which is why he holds the lead over Braun in WAR.

Lastly, going “40/40” means nothing. The value of a stolen is negligible. Unless you are swiping 50 bases and getting caught less than 10 times, you aren’t increasing you value all that much. It’s just a cheap milestone.

by dudedudedude on Nov 23, 2011 11:39 AM EST reply actions

stolen bases

With run production across baseball down the last few years, the SB will be more important to creating runs.
Also, Kemp had the higher WAR, and overall better stats

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 12:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Whether or not it becomes more important doesn't matter

The value of it will not change. Getting caught stealing still has a bigger impact on runs than stealing a base does. It’s fine if you steal are a great rate, but Kemp isn’t going to produce an extra 10 runs with his stolen base ability. Braun had the better stats, Kemp has the positional adjustment.

Also curious as to why you aren’t arguing for Upton to be the MVP when you feel value is related to one’s teammates.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/determining-the-value-of-valuable/

I don’t think Upton should be the MVP, but you seem to be making a case for Upton more so than you are Kemp.

by dudedudedude on Nov 23, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions

no

his article is as narrow minded as the BBWAA voters….he is only looking at playoff teams

At the time of the FanGraphs staff vote, Ellsbury was the leader, and I gave him my vote. The final week of the season threw everything around, and now Ben Zobrist leads the rankings. Although Zobrist was super-valuable to the Rays, the top-five players are bunched so closely that there there is no clear-cut favorite. You could make a case for any of these five players and this methodology wouldn’t argue with you.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

And your view looks at nothing but non-playoff teams

Because all playoff teams have more than one or two superstars. Each perspective is flawed.

Which is why I stated: “When voting for MVP, the question you need to ask yourself is: If I knew how each player would perform before the season started, which would I have chosen?”

It’s not that you think Kemp should win MVP is wrong, because both he and Braun have cases, but the logic behind it is awful. If Kemp put up that season on the Brewers and Braun put up that season on the Dodgers, neither team would notice a difference. The Brewers would still make the playoffs and the Dodgers would still miss it.

by dudedudedude on Nov 23, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

no

I think they should look at all teams…..and stop being narrow minded about the MVP has to come from a winner. How is Braun more valuable to the Brewers than Fielder or Greinke?

Not sure why it is awful but you are entitled to your opinion.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

I don't recall stating only playoff teams should have winners

If Kemp played for the Brewers this season and Braun played for the Dodgers and they both put up the exact same numbers, and the Brewers made the playoffs while the Dodgers did not, does that mean Kemp would not get the MVP because he played on the better team? This is the argument you are making. If you can’t see how wrong this is, there is a serious issue.

Team should have no result in who wins. If you play on a good team and have the best season, you deserve the MVP. If you play on the worst team and have the best season, you deserve the MVP. Roy Halladay deserves much more MVP love than people are giving him.

by dudedudedude on Nov 23, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

by they

I meant the BBWAA. not you.

And I think Kemp should have won the MVP as stated above…..

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

and

your Halladay comment contradicts what the guy in your linked Fangraphs article. He said the Phillies would have made the playoffs without Halladay.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

I don't believe in that philosophy

It doesn’t matter what team to me. But you seem to contradict yourself.

Braun shouldn’t have won the MVP because his team was good, but if Kemp was on that team instead of Braun, Kemp still should have won? You need to make up your mind here.

by dudedudedude on Nov 23, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

Braun

would have won if he put up better stats than Kemp, and played on the Dodgers, yes.

I don’t subscribe to the idea that the MVP has to come from a playoff team.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

That's not what I asked

If they put up the same stats, who would win? Kemp who had a higher WAR or Braun who was the only star on his team?

by dudedudedude on Nov 23, 2011 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

Braun

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

That's insanely wrong

You’re judging the player on the teams players, yet complain about the BBWAA judging the player on the rest of team, just on opposite sides of the spectrum. No playoff team should ever have an MVP by your definition of it.

by dudedudedude on Nov 23, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

I am sure if I answered Kemp that would have been “insanely” wrong too….so let;s drop the what if this happened and what if that happened and deal with reality here.

My piece was my opinion that he should have won, and many others agreed.

We can agree to disagree.

I think it is insanely wrong that Braun won……

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

There is no right answer

There is only logical and illogical thinking. You’re contradicting yourself which is illogical. Like I said, it’s fine that you think Kemp should of won, on the assumption that he was the better player. It’s wrong to think that a player should win because his competition played for a contender and vice versa.

by dudedudedude on Nov 23, 2011 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

if you say so

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 23, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

If you want to give the MVP to the best offensive player...

How come there was no article arguing Miguel Cabrera should have won MVP in AL?

Batting average: .344
Home runs: 30
RBI: 105

His OPS of 1.013 was the second-highest in MLB, and his OBP of .448 tops them all. What makes Cabrera so amazing is his ability to consistently put the ball in play, or take the walk when the pitcher gives him nothing to hit. His BB/K ratio of 1.21 was the second-highest in baseball.

by RickHoneycutt on Nov 23, 2011 11:51 AM EST reply actions