UFC 139 Hits, Misses, and Perfect Picks

SAN JOSE, CA - NOVEMBER 19: (R-L) Mauricio Rua and Dan Henderson exchange punches during an UFC Light Heavyweight bout at the HP Pavillion on November 19, 2011 in San Jose, California. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

What a night of fights. There should be a UFC card every year where Shogun and Henderson fight, along with a Pat Barry and Cheick Kongo co-main.  With UFC 139 in the books, and if you missed this great event check it out on  UFC TV or your local cable or satellite provider, it is time to look back and evaluate the UFC 139 picks.

With 9 of 12 fight winners picked correctly, the UFC 139 picks ranked #412 of 3,079 on MMA Playground, won a head-to-head fight at MMA Junkie, and lost a head-to-head fight on MMA Weekly to a guy who picked Faber.

Hits - the right winner was picked, while the method and/or round were lacking.

12-Chris Weidman-Sub-2

Weidman is a super stud and he walked right through Lawlor's opening burst en route to a brabo choke finish in 2:07.  Next time, pick Weidman to finish in round 1 unless he takes a dramatic step up in competition.

11-Ryan Bader-Dec-3

With his career on the line after two fights in a row, Ryan Bader threw caution to the wind and needed only 77 seconds to get the KO finish.  Typically a name fighter on a losing skid will play it safe (see Miguel Torres) and ride out a decision.  Expect Bader to get another warm-up fight before getting a top-15 UFC of Strikeforce fighter like Gegard Mousasi.

9-Miguel Torres-Sub-3

Torres kept the fight standing used his reach.  No surprise here, as the fight-finishing Miguel Torres of old seems to have given way to a career-oriented, decision-based fighter.  For more on Torres, see Kid Nate's take on MMA Nation.

More hits, misses, and the three perfect picks to come after the jump...


6-Danny Castillo-Dec-3

With the home field advantage, Castillo wasted little time in shaming Shamar Bailey.  Castillo alternates wins by decision or KO, so for the next Danny Castillo fight peg him as a KO-3 lock.

3-Dan Henderson-KO-5 

Wow.  What a fight.  If you picked Henderson by KO you cant get too mad at yourself, as he nearly finished Shogun in each of the first 3 rounds.  "Decision Dan" is not back, he is still looking to finish early and often.  If Dan gets a title shot at 185 or 205 in his next fight, he is a guy you can pick to win, just do it as a low lock with a low wager.


Misses - the other fighter won, much to this pundit's dismay

8-Cung Le-KO-2

Wanderlei Silva went to the lost & found and got his chin back.  Both Le and Silva were wobbled multiple times, but it was only Silva who had the killer instinct in the octagon to pounce and put the fight away.

7-Kyle Kingsbury-Dec-3

If you picked Stephan Bonnar last night, I tip my hat to you.  He was coming off a long layoff and knee surgery.  A former college football player, Kingsbury has little to no ground game by UFC standards.

1-Brian Bowles-Dec-3

Bowles got boat-raced by Faber last night, and it goes to show that rankings are only for show.  Since Bowles was the "underdog pick" and only a 1 point lock, the loss stings much less.

Parlay with Kyle Kingsbury (and Chris Weidman and Michael McDonald): sometimes you should just parlay your top 3 locks, instead of the throwing in the 7 point lock to get cute).


Perfect Picks 

5-Seth Baczynski-Sub-2

Matt Brown is like a 3rd down short-yardage running back.  If it's 3rd and 2 he can give you 2 yards.  If you ask him for 5 yards he can give you 2 yards.  If he's not in front and winning the fight, Matt Brown can give UFC fans two rounds in the UFC before he gets finished.

4-Martin Kampmann-Dec-3

Kampmann took care of business against Rick Story, and thankfully two of the three judges thought the same way.

2-Gleison Tibau-Dec-3

Tibau almost blew this perfect pick when he flurried on Rafael Dos Anjos in the second round.  Still Tibau is good enough to be any fighter outside the top 5 including Eddie Alvarez.

That's it for UFC 139 folks.  Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy The Ultimate Fighter.

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